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August 22, 2020

How local is local, really?

Real estate, as they say, is a local business. Every market has its local nuances. For example, once of the first things that Studio Gang asked us when we started working together was, "does Toronto do PT?" What they were referring to was post-tensioned concrete and our answer was, "not really." There are certainly examples of localized applications within buildings (such as for a specific transfer slab) and there are examples of buildings that have used it throughout (see Pier 27 Tower below -- it's how they managed to get such deep balconies). But for the most part, it's not widely used and it's certainly not as common as it is in markets such as New York. This subtle difference has an impact on how you design, which is why Studio Gang asked it from the outset.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CBHXTd4AQeJ/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Despite some of these local differences, there is a criticism out there that we have descended upon a kind of bland global design sensibility. No matter where you're building, every building now looks the same, which, at the end of the day, was kind of the point of the International Style of architecture. One design approach applied universally. This recent article by Edwin Heathcote takes things even further by saying that our interiors have also been sterilized to look more or less the same as a result of "digital aesthetic seepage." The article is called, "The curse of the Airbnb aesthetic."

https://www.instagram.com/p/CEHmhKZgh3b/

One the one hand, there is something inevitable about this outcome. We -- including our supply chains -- have become more interconnected than ever. And because of the high cost of labor, the way we build today is centered around as much factory automation as possible. Minimize what needs to be done on site. And given that I would expect more, rather than less, automation going forward, one has to assume that this trend is destined to continue. At the same time, local places matter and one of the reasons why so many of us love to travel is that we want to see places that are different than our own. I for one don't want that to change.

Cover photo
June 14, 2020

Daydreaming about traveling again

One of my favorite pastimes these days is planning out all of the places I am going to travel to once it is safe to do so and the world fully reopens. Traveling was something that I prioritized before COVID-19 and it is something that I know I will get back to sooner rather than later. But in the short-term, the travel and tourism industry is of course feeling it. According to this recent article from FT, there were 67 million fewer tourists around the world in March 2020 compared to last year. And in April, passenger demand was down even further with a 94% year-over-year decline. This is something, because globally, tourism is believed to account for about 10% of the world's economic output. Over the last five years, 1 out of every 4 new jobs around the world was in the travel and tourism space. And for some countries, such as Cambodia, tourism accounts for over 30% of overall GDP.

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What has also happened over the last decade is that South and East Asia & Pacific has begun collecting a greater share of global tourism dollars, which is or was at about US$1.6 trillion in total. East Asia is now comparable to Europe & Central Asia -- it may even be receiving a few more dollars at this point. However, there are some key differences. Tourism in Europe, more so than other region, relies on international travel. And since domestic travel is likely to recover before international travel, Europe is perhaps the most exposed in this regard. Europe also has a pretty pronounced peak. There is something magical about the Mediterranean in July and August and that is indeed when most people visit Europe (see above FT charts). Broadly speaking, the rest of the world doesn't seem to experience this same overt seasonality. (If you think back to the start of COVID-19, you might remember that Asia's travel "peak" usually happens in December.)

Will international travellers feel confident enough by July and August? And if they don't and Europe misses summer 2020, will travel plans get pushed to later in the year or will Europe need to wait for summer 2021? For me it's feeling like a summer of road trips and local vacations. But that doesn't mean I'm not thinking about and planning for much more. My suitcase and passport are ready. What about you?

Charts: Financial Times

May 27, 2020

Amazon might be buying Zoox

This week the FT reported that Amazon is in "advanced talks" to acquire the self-driving startup Zoox. This would be Amazon's first acquisition in the space, though it did lead a $530M funding round in Aurora in early 2019.

Zoox last raised two years ago and was valued at $3.2 billion. Rumor has it that its valuation will be less than that today. Some of its investors, according to FT, include Breyer Capital and the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board.

The move seems reasonable. Amazon wants to build out its (driverless) logistics capabilities. It's also in keeping with what we have been seeing from big tech. Companies that can are using this environment to be acquisitive, invest in the future and, hopefully, gain market share. It's probably also inevitable that the self-driving space will see some consolidation going forward.

If you go back to this post from earlier this year, Zoox and Aurora weren't near the top in terms of R&D spending on autonomy. And it has become increasingly clear that this a giant problem/opportunity requiring giant funding capabilities. It's going to take time.

I recently heard Chamath Palihapitiya refer to Jeff Bezos as the greatest investor of our time -- even more so than Warren Buffet. Why? Because he is consistently, and sometimes exclusively, investing in the future. Is this one of those moments?

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Brandon Donnelly

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Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.

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