I never used to listen to very many podcasts. But lately I've started doing it while heading to/from meetings, either in the car or on the train. This past week I listened to a Bankless podcast talking about crypto and AI, and one of the arguments that was made was that it's probably a safe bet to assume that we're going to need dramatically more compute and electricity in the future.

This seems obvious enough. If you recall, there's no such thing as a wealthy, low-energy nation. If you're a wealthy country, you consume a lot of energy. And that's why Build Canada recently argued that we need a kind of energy revolution. By 2050, it's likely Canada will have 2-3x the electricity demand that we have today. So today I thought I would share a few related charts.

Here's electricity production by source across the world. Coal dominates.

Looking at renewables more closely, we again see that wind and solar are making a run for it. And if you consider that solar is one of the fastest growing energy sources, it's not inconceivable that it will start to become a more dominant source in the near term. In the US, solar PV projects make up the largest share of new planned generation capacity.

But the US is not winning this race today. Right now it's China. (Chart below sourced from here.) They have the largest cumulative solar capacity, followed by the EU, and then the US. That said, coal still forms a dominant part of China's energy mix, and the country continues to construct coal-fired power plants to meet its short-term energy needs.

It's unfortunate that Canada is not on this list. That needs to change.

Cover photo by Benjamin Jopen on Unsplash

Solar energy's share of total US electricity generation was only about 3.9% as of 2023. So it's not powering all that much today. However, the cost of PV modules continue to come down and installed capacity is growing very quickly. Here's an excerpt from a recent post by Brian Potter about solar energy:

By some metrics, solar PV has been deployed faster than any other energy source in history, going from 100 terawatt-hours of generation to 1,000 terawatt-hours in just 8 years, compared to 12 years for wind and nuclear, 28 for natural gas, and 32 for coal. In the US, solar PV projects are by far the largest share of planned new electrical generation capacity.

And here's a chart:

It's also interesting to look at which US states have the highest "capacity factors." The average for the entire US is 23%, which means that, on average, solar panels produce 23% of what they would if the sun were shining 24 hours a day. You might also think that the "sunshine state" would be one of the highest. But in fact, the top states are Utah and Arizona:

I'm highly interested in solar and we want to deploy it as much as we can on our projects going forward. If you're also interested in solar and want to learn more, Brian's post is an excellent place to start.

Images: Construction Physics

The obvious response to sea level rise and storm surges is to try and keep the water out by building things like walls. But there are other options. At the southern tip of Staten Island, New York, for example, a new near-shore breakwater system was just completed this past October.

Designed by landscape architect Kate Orff of SCAPE, the project cost $111 million, runs about 2,400 linear feet, and is designed to "break" future storm surge waves as they approach the coast. This won't completely eliminate the risks, but it will help to reduce them.

At the same time, by slowing currents next to the shoreline, these barriers are expected to reduce shoreline erosion (and eventually reverse it) and improve the overall habitat for plants and animals along it. The breakwaters themselves are also intended to attract organisms, hence the term "living."

It's a novel approach when it comes to flood infrastructure in the US. But it's certainly not a new idea:

Breakwaters is an ancient idea for how to protect shorelines – and the people who live close to them – by building underwater seawalls to defend a harbor or a beach from the force of waves. Kate has designed an extraordinary, modern-day interpretation, the Living Breakwaters, which will not only protect humans and revitalize the coastline of New York City, but also restore lost marine biodiversity. This is a visionary project that tackles the full task of adaptation, and which has the capacity to inspire and to positively impact vulnerable shorelines worldwide.

It'll now be interesting to see how this performs during storms. But in the meantime, you can find more information about the project on SCAPE's website.

Photo from SCAPE and Ty Cole