Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
This week Bloomberg reported that Dubai is facing a "housing disaster" as a result of overbuilding. There's simply too much supply coming onto the market. About 30,000 units are expected to be completed this year, which the industry believes is about 2x actual demand. As a result, the industry -- yes, the development industry -- is calling for a 1-2 year pause on all new construction in the city so that the excess units can be absorbed and demand can catch up.
I'm not an expert on the Dubai market. And I've only been to the city once. But my sense is that there are relatively few barriers to new supply, especially compared to markets like Toronto and San Francisco. And so it's not surprising to hear that supply is and has been outstripping demand. According to Bloomberg, the market peaked about 5 years ago.
For the industry to call for a moratorium on new construction it must mean that there's concern of a prolonged housing slump and perhaps even some sort of systemic collapse. But if the objective is more affordable housing, than you might argue that Dubai has been doing a pretty good job of that. Here is a global city with a "housing crisis" on the opposite end of the spectrum. So what is it that makes Dubai different than, say, London or San Francisco?
Photo by David Rodrigo on Unsplash
The below graphs are taken from a recent (June 2019) report by Knight Frank on "prime" residential pricing across the world. They define "prime" as generally being the top 5% of each market by value. What these graphs show are the spread between the average price of a prime property and the top price achieved in that market.
Below is a list of the 44 cities found in the 2018 Global Power City Index by the Mori Memorial Foundation's Institute for Urban Strategies.
The index ranks the major cities of the world according to their "magnetism", which they generally define as a city's ability to attract people, capital, and businesses from around the world.
As with all rankings, the output depends entirely on the methodology that you use. The GPCI seems to have the right executive committee in place. It includes global city authorities like Saskia Sassen. But that's not really the point of today's post.
Beside each city, I have added the average highs and lows (in celsius) for both the coldest and hottest months of the year. For cities in the northern hemisphere, these are typically January and July/August, respectively.
I have also added the spread between the hottest and coldest months to get a sense of variability. I always find it interesting to see how cities like Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, and Mumbai basically stay the same temperature all year round.
When you look at this list, remember that you can ski in Dubai.
This week Bloomberg reported that Dubai is facing a "housing disaster" as a result of overbuilding. There's simply too much supply coming onto the market. About 30,000 units are expected to be completed this year, which the industry believes is about 2x actual demand. As a result, the industry -- yes, the development industry -- is calling for a 1-2 year pause on all new construction in the city so that the excess units can be absorbed and demand can catch up.
I'm not an expert on the Dubai market. And I've only been to the city once. But my sense is that there are relatively few barriers to new supply, especially compared to markets like Toronto and San Francisco. And so it's not surprising to hear that supply is and has been outstripping demand. According to Bloomberg, the market peaked about 5 years ago.
For the industry to call for a moratorium on new construction it must mean that there's concern of a prolonged housing slump and perhaps even some sort of systemic collapse. But if the objective is more affordable housing, than you might argue that Dubai has been doing a pretty good job of that. Here is a global city with a "housing crisis" on the opposite end of the spectrum. So what is it that makes Dubai different than, say, London or San Francisco?
Photo by David Rodrigo on Unsplash
The below graphs are taken from a recent (June 2019) report by Knight Frank on "prime" residential pricing across the world. They define "prime" as generally being the top 5% of each market by value. What these graphs show are the spread between the average price of a prime property and the top price achieved in that market.
Below is a list of the 44 cities found in the 2018 Global Power City Index by the Mori Memorial Foundation's Institute for Urban Strategies.
The index ranks the major cities of the world according to their "magnetism", which they generally define as a city's ability to attract people, capital, and businesses from around the world.
As with all rankings, the output depends entirely on the methodology that you use. The GPCI seems to have the right executive committee in place. It includes global city authorities like Saskia Sassen. But that's not really the point of today's post.
Beside each city, I have added the average highs and lows (in celsius) for both the coldest and hottest months of the year. For cities in the northern hemisphere, these are typically January and July/August, respectively.
I have also added the spread between the hottest and coldest months to get a sense of variability. I always find it interesting to see how cities like Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, and Mumbai basically stay the same temperature all year round.
When you look at this list, remember that you can ski in Dubai.
The most expensive market is Hong Kong. The average price of a prime property in 2018 was USD 4,251 per square foot (or USD 45,760 per square meter) and the top price achieved was in 2016 at USD 28,154 per square foot (or USD 303,051 per square meter).
Using the 2018 average, a 350 square foot studio apartment would run nearly USD 1.5 million (or almost CAD 2 million), assuming there are "prime" studios available in the market. Remember, we are talking about the top end of the market.
If you'd like to download a copy of the full report, you can do that over here.
All weather data taken from the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).
The most expensive market is Hong Kong. The average price of a prime property in 2018 was USD 4,251 per square foot (or USD 45,760 per square meter) and the top price achieved was in 2016 at USD 28,154 per square foot (or USD 303,051 per square meter).
Using the 2018 average, a 350 square foot studio apartment would run nearly USD 1.5 million (or almost CAD 2 million), assuming there are "prime" studios available in the market. Remember, we are talking about the top end of the market.
If you'd like to download a copy of the full report, you can do that over here.
All weather data taken from the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).
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