In case I haven't been clear enough: I love cities. I vividly remember being a kid and being excited to come downtown. My mom has told me that my eyes used to light up -- every, single, time. Even today, when I'm away from Toronto and I return home, I'm excited to see the skyline. I miss it.

This afternoon I got that same feeling on our return to Paris, even though it is not home. We spent the last two days in Normandy, specifically Étretat and Rouen, and as beautiful and as wonderful as these places are, I was genuinely excited to come back to the capital.

My other revelation is that driving in Paris sucks.

I would much rather walk, cycle, or take the metro. That is what this city is designed for. Still, I'm happy that we rented a car for Normandy and that I learned -- after being honked at -- how to appropriately conduct myself in the infamous Arc de Triomphe roundabout.

Unlike every other roundabout in the world, you do not yield to cars already in the circle; you yield to cars entering the circle. Once you understand that, it's significantly easier. Though, supposedly, car accidents that happen within the circle are automatically every driver's fault and every insurer pays.

I guess that says something about its orderliness.

Aren't cities wonderful?

Since the summer, I have been using the lunch line at Jimmy the Greek (in First Canadian Place) as a crude measure for the reopening of the CBD in downtown Toronto. It is partially a joke. Those of you who know me will know I am a fan of Jimmy the Greek (and large filling lunches in general). But at the same time, it is a probably a fairly decent (but again crude) proxy for the utilization rate of the offices that sit above and around Jimmy. Pre-COVID the lunch lines were always long and there was usually nowhere to sit. In the spring of this year, I was often the only person there, single-handedly keeping Jimmy alive. But things picked up throughout the summer months and there was a significant spike this week, following Labor Day (see above tweet). This was the spike that many/most of us were predicting and it showed through in the Jimmy the Greek Reopening Index.

Let's talk some more about floor plan designs and the economic constraints that form part of the decision making process. There continues to be a narrative out there that for-profit developers only want to construct small apartments (a form of social engineering perhaps) and that they aren't focused on livability. So let's dig into some of the constraints.

Consider that the average price of a new construction condominium in downtown Toronto last quarter (Q1 2021) was $1,419 per square foot. And I bet that this number has already increased. Now consider that, in the City of Toronto, the "growing up guidelines" suggest that an ideal family-sized three bedroom suite should be around 1,140 square feet.

When you multiply these two numbers together, you get an "ideal" three bedroom suite that costs just over $1.6 million. Of course, this is without parking. So if you want downtown parking, add another $100-200k (which, at this price point, is still almost certainly going to be a loss leader for the developer).

All of a sudden, you've now got a $1.7 - 1.8 million residence. This will work in some submarkets and in some locations, but certainly not all.

So what happens is that the end price becomes a constraint. And in order to make the suite more affordable, the developer will naturally look for ways to make it smaller. Turn this into a 900 square foot three bedroom and all of a sudden you shave off over $300k from the price.

The point I am hoping to make is that developers generally aspire to respond to what the (sub)market wants. If the (sub)market wants a certain price point, developers will try and meet that need. If the (sub)market wants massive apartments, developers will gladly deliver. (We're working on combining some supremely awesome suites at this very moment in fact.)

It is "what if" instead of "should be" thinking.

Photo by Loewe Technologies on Unsplash