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In my opinion, digital nomadism is a growing trend for at least two reasons: 1) people like traveling (it's more fun than sitting in an office cubicle) and 2) technology keeps making it easier to work in a decentralized way.
This is not a new phenomenon, but it's a growing one. In 2020, it was estimated that there were ~11 million so-called digital nomads in the world. This year it's somewhere around 40 million people. And it's hard to imagine this trend reversing.
Let's consider what's happening on the technology side. This week at Google I/O, the company announced a lot of AI-powered tech in the hopes of not becoming extinct as a result of it. And one of these things was a new 3D video communication platform called Google Beam.
Two things are really neat about this tool. One, it uses some AI volumetric video model to make the person in front of you appear in full 3D. So it's closer to real life. And two, it does real-time language translations. Here's a video of it in action:
In watching this, my mind immediately went to "this is going to make it even easier for people to work from Bogotá." It also collapses the world. Now we can all speak to each other regardless of language.
Imagine, for example, being able to participate in a community meeting for a new development project in Bogotá. You could be at home speaking in English and the community could be yelling at you in Spanish. That's powerful.
There's also speculation that Apple will be adding real-time translations to its AirPods later this year. Meaning, you won't need to hide behind layers of screens and technologies. You'll be able to get yelled at in person!
All of these innovations are only going to make it easier for people to live and work fluidly around the world. And I strongly believe that an increasing number of people will take advantage of it. But now the hard part: What does this mean for cities, real estate, and everything else?
Cover photo by Random Institute on Unsplash
One way to describe cities is to call them labor markets. Historically, people have chosen to live in cities because they have provided economic opportunities (among, of course, many other things). That's why the data is very clear: wages are higher in larger cities.
But what we have also seen over the last few years -- and what is causing a lot of dislocation in real estate markets -- is an untethering of work. More people are working from home and from locations that offer greater lifestyle benefits (or greater tax benefits).
We spoke recently about what this divide between in-person and remote work might mean, but regardless of this outcome, I think there's an important truth here: Lots of people would like to live somewhere else. (In my case, my daydreams take me to Paris.)
And for the first time ever, really, it is possible for more people to do this and stay connected to work somewhere else. Earlier innovations, such as the streetcar or car, also compressed geographies and empowered people to travel greater distances. But now the catchment area has seemingly expanded to the world.
I'm not saying anything particularly novel here, but I do think it's important to point out that this desire exists in many of us. Because this tension between "I do work here" but "I really want to live over there" seems like it's only increasing.
One common way to measure affordability is to look at the cost of things relative to local incomes. But the world is getting increasingly more complicated than this. Here, for example, is an interesting article talking about the "nomadification" of cities such as Medellín.
What this is referring to is digital nomads who might work for and draw a salary from a company in say the US, but who work fully remotely in places like Medellín, Buenos Aires, and Mexico City. It's like working from home all the time, except home is some exciting city in Latin America.
The appeal of this work arrangement is obvious. You get to both live in an exciting city and you get to arbitrage between a US or other similarly high salary and a place where the cost of living is significantly less.
But the point of the above article is that this can distort a local economy and make locals feel like they're getting priced out. When you take enough software developers making $150k a year and you drop them into a place where the minimum wage is $350 per month, that additional income starts to have an impact.
Though, many countries seem to think it's a positive one. Last year, both Portugal and Colombia introduced new digital nomad visas, which presumably means they want more of them. And I certainly think that we will see more and not less of this kind of working.
But in a way, isn't this really just an extreme form of tourism? I mean, unless these nomadic cities are collecting additional income taxes (or deriving some other benefits), aren't we just talking about foreigners renting Airbnbs and spending money that is earned and taxed elsewhere?
Chart: Rest of World
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