One of the things that Bill Gates mentions in his recent TED talk about the coronavirus is that we need to be aware of what might be coming in developing countries, particularly in the southern hemisphere with winter about to arrive. (There's some evidence of a relationship with temperature.)
So far, countries like Brazil have been criticized for taking a laid-back approach to fighting the coronavirus. But the same could be said for many, or perhaps most, countries around the world at the outset.
However, in the case of densely populated slums -- like Brazil’s favelas -- the problem is expected to be more severe. Without the ability to socially isolate and without proper services, it is questionable whether they will be able to "flatten the curve" in the same way that some developed countries have. There's also a lack of government oversight in these communities.
Incidentally, the Financial Times is reporting that organized crime has started to step in to fill this void -- and it is happening over WhatsApp. Here is an excerpt from the above article: “Whoever is caught on the street will learn how to respect the measure. We want the best for the population. If the government is unable to manage, organised crime resolves,” read one message sent to residents of a Rio de Janeiro slum.
One hope is that rich countries will be largely through their outbreaks by the summer and that a vaccine will be well on its way.
(On a related note, here is an excellent slide deck from the London Business School on the economics of this pandemic. It's very comprehensive and worth a read.)
This recent post by Sam Karam at NewGeography illustrates the relationship between female literacy and total fertility rates in Sub-Saharan Africa, India, and China. The overarching argument, which won’t surprise any of you, is that, “higher female literacy is a reliable predictor of lower fertility and improved prosperity.”
The following graph uses data from populyst, the UN Population Division and UNESCO. The time period for the dataset varies by country but approximately corresponds to the latest 2000′s. All Sub-Saharan countries are represented, except for the Congo, Somolia, and South Sudan.
Noteworthy about this dataset is that the biggest decline in the total fertility rate happens precipitously after female literacy reaches and exceeds 80%. What is also interesting, but not surprising, if that the countries with the lowest gender equality rankings tend to also have high fertility rates. And that’s because low gender equality tends to translate into lower female literacy rates.
According to populyst, the above phenomenon – precipitous decline in TFR with rising female literacy – has already proved itself out in China.
Based on data from the World Bank, China’s total fertility rate dropped from 6.38 in 1966 to 2.75 in 1979. And since the one-child policy was only enacted in 1979, it doesn’t appear to be driven by that. (I would have initially expected some sort of surge in births prior to that policy.) From 1982 to 2000, the female literacy rate in China rose from 51% to 87%. Today it is 99.6%, which is basically the same as it is for males.
For a more detailed look at the above data, check out this populyst post.
The video below is a good follow-up to my recent post about the 100 million city and the rapid population growth that we are seeing in some parts of the developing world.
If you can’t see the embedded video below, click here.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvM7jFZGAec?rel=0&w=560&h=315]
It’s a video about what is allegedly the “first permitted, 3D-printed home in America” – an 800 square foot home that was built/printed in Austin during SXSW in about 24 hours.
The project is a partnership between New Story (a non-profit) and ICON (a construction technologies company), and the goal is to pioneer a fast and cheap housing model for the developing world.
The cost for the above home is said to be about $4,000.
