This week marks the 10 year anniversary of this daily blog. In some ways it’s hard to believe that it’s been a decade and in other ways it’s hard to imagine a time when I didn’t write/post something every day. What a habit this has become.
A lot has changed since 2013.
Back then, I was still trying to find my way in real estate development. Instagram was only 3 years old. TikTok hadn’t been created yet. And the idea of writing a daily blog didn’t feel as antiquated as it does today. I probably should be vlogging at this point.
But here’s what hasn’t changed:
- I enjoy writing, and I think it’s personally beneficial — even if I don’t derive any direct benefits (such as money)
- I like having my own little corner of the internet that I control — instead of relying exclusively on centralized platforms like Instagram or X
Today this corner is brandondonnelly.com, but I suspect that brandondonnelly.eth will become just as important over the next decade. The world is heading toward more decentralization. And if/when that does happen, I’ll be sure to write about it on this daily blog.
Thanks for reading everyone. As usual, I’ll see you tomorrow.
We have spoken over the years -- here, here, and here -- about the centralizing and decentralizing forces that play out within our cities. Agglomeration economies, for example, are a centralizing force. There are real economic benefits to people and firms clustering together in cities.
However, there are also many decentralizing forces. Traffic congestion is one. And of course, the pandemic also proved to be a powerful one for many cities.
But the fact that we even have cities in the first place should tell you that the centralizing forces do tend to win out over the decentralizing ones. And a perfect example of this is Tokyo. Usually considered to be the largest metropolitan area in the world, Tokyo has about the population of Canada in one city region.
And here, the centralizing forces are so great -- even for families -- that the government actually pays people to relocate to places outside of Tokyo's 23 wards (and its immediately surrounding areas). Previously the maximum figure was ¥300,000 per child (~CA$3,056), but this has now been increased to ¥1 million per child (~CA$10,188).
A key driver of this is surely Japan's demographic problem (namely a shrinking and aging population base). But it doesn't change the fact that lots of people appear drawn to the world's largest city.
This is not all that surprising:
https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1532345443082027008?s=20&t=YxCyb6JcFaC0q3izbzIIEA
It is not surprising for at least two reasons:
We knew that central banks would tighten the money supply at some point and that it would have a negative impact on asset prices.
Many of us believed that a lot of people were making a somewhat long-term decision (flee the city) because of something that would ultimately prove to be short-term dislocation (a ~2 year health crisis).
So one of the things I think you can glean from Daniel's tweet is that our best urban centers are resilient. Notwithstanding the fact that we have things like Zoom and previous pandemic-suffering generations did not, the core value propositions associated with centralizing in cities hasn't gone away.
