Here is a chart from Residential Club showing home price changes in America's 50 largest metro areas.
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Here is a chart from Residential Club showing home price changes in America's 50 largest metro areas.
Here is a chart from Residential Club showing home price changes in America's 50 largest metro areas.
The month-over-month figure is between August and September 2025. The year-over-year figure is between September 2024 and September 2025. And the "shift since 2022 peak" is the change in home prices since each market's respective 2022 peak (not always the same date apparently).
A number of things stand out.
The month-over-month figures do not look encouraging. The vast majority of markets have gone negative. Of course, one month does not make a trend. The year-over-year column (which is how this table is sorted) looks more balanced, but the national average is still at 0%.
The most prominent outliers in the negative direction are New Orleans (which has been uniquely flat since the start of the pandemic in March 2020), San Francisco and Phoenix (which have both seen a double digit percentage drop since the peak), and Austin (which is down over 25% since the peak).
Austin is a prime example of what happens when you bring a lot of new housing supply to a market — prices come down. Earlier this year we spoke about apartment rents being down 22% from their August 2023 peak. These effects are also being heightened by increased outmigration from the city (previously the fastest growing US metro area).
Back to the office, I guess.
Even with the declines since 2022, most markets remain up significantly, with many smaller markets like Buffalo and Hartford continuing to show strong year-over-year gains. It is interesting to me that over 5 years later, we are still working through the market distortions brought about by the pandemic. The market is searching for a new equilibrium.
Yesterday morning I went cycling in High Park to try and condition myself for the Bike for Brain Health ride that I have coming up. The Park is such an incredible amenity and I love being so close to it. Of course, before I set out, I turned on my Apple Watch and Garmin computer so that I could track it all in Strava. This has become such a big part of cycling (and working out in general). We're all data obsessed. Everyone wants to track their route, their speed, their heart rate, and whatever else.
The result is that Strava collects mountains of data about the way people actively move about in cities — data on everything from cycling to backcountry skiing. Some of this aggregated/anonymized data is available to the public via their global heatmap, but much more of it is available to urban planners and active transportation groups around the world. In fact, this is part of what Strava does: they help city builders. Here are some urban case studies spanning Rio de Janeiro to Park City.
Looking at central Toronto, our heatmap looks like this:
Waymo has started releasing statistics for its autonomous vehicles. Here's the link.
There are a number of important considerations when comparing human-driven and autonomous vehicles. For instance, the two have different definitions of a crash. AV operators have to report any kind of physical contact (property damage, injury, or fatality). Human-driven cars, on the other hand, don't typically report accidents unless it was bad enough to necessitate a police report. So there are nuances to keep in mind.
That said, there is an argument to be made that AVs are already safer than human-driven ones. Through to June 2024, Waymo had already logged over 22 million rider-only miles. And here is what it is now reporting in terms of airbag deployments, injury-causing crashes, and police-reported crashes:
The month-over-month figure is between August and September 2025. The year-over-year figure is between September 2024 and September 2025. And the "shift since 2022 peak" is the change in home prices since each market's respective 2022 peak (not always the same date apparently).
A number of things stand out.
The month-over-month figures do not look encouraging. The vast majority of markets have gone negative. Of course, one month does not make a trend. The year-over-year column (which is how this table is sorted) looks more balanced, but the national average is still at 0%.
The most prominent outliers in the negative direction are New Orleans (which has been uniquely flat since the start of the pandemic in March 2020), San Francisco and Phoenix (which have both seen a double digit percentage drop since the peak), and Austin (which is down over 25% since the peak).
Austin is a prime example of what happens when you bring a lot of new housing supply to a market — prices come down. Earlier this year we spoke about apartment rents being down 22% from their August 2023 peak. These effects are also being heightened by increased outmigration from the city (previously the fastest growing US metro area).
Back to the office, I guess.
Even with the declines since 2022, most markets remain up significantly, with many smaller markets like Buffalo and Hartford continuing to show strong year-over-year gains. It is interesting to me that over 5 years later, we are still working through the market distortions brought about by the pandemic. The market is searching for a new equilibrium.
Yesterday morning I went cycling in High Park to try and condition myself for the Bike for Brain Health ride that I have coming up. The Park is such an incredible amenity and I love being so close to it. Of course, before I set out, I turned on my Apple Watch and Garmin computer so that I could track it all in Strava. This has become such a big part of cycling (and working out in general). We're all data obsessed. Everyone wants to track their route, their speed, their heart rate, and whatever else.
The result is that Strava collects mountains of data about the way people actively move about in cities — data on everything from cycling to backcountry skiing. Some of this aggregated/anonymized data is available to the public via their global heatmap, but much more of it is available to urban planners and active transportation groups around the world. In fact, this is part of what Strava does: they help city builders. Here are some urban case studies spanning Rio de Janeiro to Park City.
Looking at central Toronto, our heatmap looks like this:
Waymo has started releasing statistics for its autonomous vehicles. Here's the link.
There are a number of important considerations when comparing human-driven and autonomous vehicles. For instance, the two have different definitions of a crash. AV operators have to report any kind of physical contact (property damage, injury, or fatality). Human-driven cars, on the other hand, don't typically report accidents unless it was bad enough to necessitate a police report. So there are nuances to keep in mind.
That said, there is an argument to be made that AVs are already safer than human-driven ones. Through to June 2024, Waymo had already logged over 22 million rider-only miles. And here is what it is now reporting in terms of airbag deployments, injury-causing crashes, and police-reported crashes:
What is immediately noticeable is that cyclists will go where they feel safe. And that generally means streets with dedicated bike lanes. Looking at the above map, you can see that some of the most popular north-south routes are Shaw Street, Beverley Street/St. George Street, and Sherbourne Street. All of these streets have dedicated bike lanes. In the east-west direction, it's also clear that Bloor Street and Danforth Avenue form a hugely important crosstown artery. It is widely used from Etobicoke all the way to Scarborough.
At the same time, these maps start to show where there are broken links in the network. Annette Street and a portion of Dupont Street are, for example, widely used until you get east of the Junction Triangle. Then it falls off. This is unsurprising because it's a stretch of Dupont that isn't very friendly to cyclists. I know I certainly try and avoid it. Instead, we see that cyclists seem to be shifting northward to Davenport, which has a nice bike lane.
This is just one example, and I'm sure there's a lot of other takeaways that can be gleaned from Strava's data. So if you're a city builder and you aren't already leveraging this dataset, you may want to consider applying for a Metro Partnership. I'll be sure to continue doing my part and feeding it data about my laps in High Park and my stops for burgers and croissant sandwiches.
All of them are lower than their respective benchmark crash rates.
What is immediately noticeable is that cyclists will go where they feel safe. And that generally means streets with dedicated bike lanes. Looking at the above map, you can see that some of the most popular north-south routes are Shaw Street, Beverley Street/St. George Street, and Sherbourne Street. All of these streets have dedicated bike lanes. In the east-west direction, it's also clear that Bloor Street and Danforth Avenue form a hugely important crosstown artery. It is widely used from Etobicoke all the way to Scarborough.
At the same time, these maps start to show where there are broken links in the network. Annette Street and a portion of Dupont Street are, for example, widely used until you get east of the Junction Triangle. Then it falls off. This is unsurprising because it's a stretch of Dupont that isn't very friendly to cyclists. I know I certainly try and avoid it. Instead, we see that cyclists seem to be shifting northward to Davenport, which has a nice bike lane.
This is just one example, and I'm sure there's a lot of other takeaways that can be gleaned from Strava's data. So if you're a city builder and you aren't already leveraging this dataset, you may want to consider applying for a Metro Partnership. I'll be sure to continue doing my part and feeding it data about my laps in High Park and my stops for burgers and croissant sandwiches.
All of them are lower than their respective benchmark crash rates.
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