The New Consumer and Coefficient Capital recently teamed up to publish their inaugural consumer trends report. It is a look at what changed this year and what might actually endure as we get past all of this.

Some of it is perhaps intuitive once you see it. Makeup consumption is, for example, way down and home scent sales are way up. See above chart.

And some of it I disagree with. Their survey results suggest that 81% of Millennials (and 66% of all consumers) are now perfectly content working out at home, as opposed to going to a gym. I am firmly in the 19% here. Get me back to the gym.

But what is clear is that this year has accelerated a number of consumer trends that were already underway and so there are likely to be some structural changes as we move forward.

To read the entire report, click here.

Chart: Consumer Trends 2021

The Commons Project and the World Economic Forum are piloting an initiative right now called the CommonPass framework, and a number of airlines, including Lufthansa and Swiss International Air, are expected to start rolling it out before the end of the year.

What the CommonPass does is allow people and travelers to verify their health status via a digital certificate on their phone. Right now it can confirm that you've tested negative for COVID-19 and eventually it will confirm if you've received a valid vaccination.

The framework also asks countries to publish their travel entry criteria in a standard format, so that it's easy to update and it can be globally understood.

Of course, much like all of the exposure alert apps that are out there, this is only really useful if people and companies actually start using it. But the travel industry knows that for customer confidence to return, people are going to need to feel safe again. And a digital health pass is one way to help with that.

Here is a short video explaining how the CommonPass works. If you can't see it below, click here.

Back in March and April, there was a belief that big and dense cities were going to pose a serious problem in the fight against COVID-19. The narrative was that the benefits of urban density suddenly flip to glaring negatives during a pandemic. Elevators are a problem. Public transit is a problem. Busy streets and public spaces are a problem. Instead of density, you want dispersion. There was also some speculation that COVID-19 cases would be somewhat correlated with colder climates.

The data that we are seeing today suggests the opposite. Note the above chart by Axios. On a per capita basis, COVID-19 cases are now the lowest -- and below the national average -- in large US cities with populations greater than 1 million people. Where cases are the highest, again on a per capita basis, is in rural areas. Non-metro areas less than 10,000 people. The county with the highest rate also isn't the coldest of places. It's Childress County, Texas, where the rate is about 1,265.3 cases per 100,000 people.

I have a lot of questions about the most important factors affecting transmission rates. Is mask wearing, for example, more important than average temperatures? What is the impact of socio-economic status? I am seeing maps that, unfortunately, suggest this plays a meaningful role. What is really driving these so-called "hot spots?" But what seems clear to me is that density is not necessarily destiny during this pandemic.

P.S. Here's a related article on hospital capacities across the United States.

Chart: Axios