One of the things that Bill Gates mentions in his recent TED talk about the coronavirus is that we need to be aware of what might be coming in developing countries, particularly in the southern hemisphere with winter about to arrive. (There's some evidence of a relationship with temperature.)
So far, countries like Brazil have been criticized for taking a laid-back approach to fighting the coronavirus. But the same could be said for many, or perhaps most, countries around the world at the outset.
However, in the case of densely populated slums -- like Brazil’s favelas -- the problem is expected to be more severe. Without the ability to socially isolate and without proper services, it is questionable whether they will be able to "flatten the curve" in the same way that some developed countries have. There's also a lack of government oversight in these communities.
One of the things that Bill Gates mentions in his recent TED talk about the coronavirus is that we need to be aware of what might be coming in developing countries, particularly in the southern hemisphere with winter about to arrive. (There's some evidence of a relationship with temperature.)
So far, countries like Brazil have been criticized for taking a laid-back approach to fighting the coronavirus. But the same could be said for many, or perhaps most, countries around the world at the outset.
However, in the case of densely populated slums -- like Brazil’s favelas -- the problem is expected to be more severe. Without the ability to socially isolate and without proper services, it is questionable whether they will be able to "flatten the curve" in the same way that some developed countries have. There's also a lack of government oversight in these communities.
Incidentally,
the Financial Times is reporting
that organized crime has started to step in to fill this void -- and it is happening over WhatsApp. Here is an excerpt from the above article:
“Whoever is caught on the street will learn how to respect the measure. We want the best for the population. If the government is unable to manage, organised crime resolves,” read one message sent to residents of a Rio de Janeiro slum.
One hope is that rich countries will be largely through their outbreaks by the summer and that a vaccine will be well on its way.
I just finished watching this TED talk with Bill Gates. For those of you who are up on their TED talks, this is not the one from five years ago where Bill predicted a pandemic and told us all that we were nowhere near ready. (We, of course, didn't listen.) This is one that was published a few days ago and talks about how we should be responding to the outbreak that we are currently living through. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been committing significant resources toward solving problems exactly like this one. So it's interesting to hear his thoughts. In case you're wondering, herd immunity isn't the answer. We need (1) widespread testing and (2) to be extremely disciplined about our social distancing. In his words: "But money, you know bringing the economy back and doing money, that's more of a reversible thing than bringing people back to life."
The Financial Times has some of the best charts/graphics that I have seen on the coronavirus and its impact. They're also free and regularly updated. Below is the cumulative number of deaths, by number of days since the 10th death (last updated March 23 at 21:00 GMT). I prefer this to the number of cases because it is more precise, though impacted by things like demographics. The number of cases is impacted by how good you are at testing. Some countries have been far better than others. And what we are continuing to learn is that lots of people were and are completely asymptomatic.
Seeing China (and Iran?) continue to flatten out is encouraging. (Note the logarithmic scale.)
the Financial Times is reporting
that organized crime has started to step in to fill this void -- and it is happening over WhatsApp. Here is an excerpt from the above article:
“Whoever is caught on the street will learn how to respect the measure. We want the best for the population. If the government is unable to manage, organised crime resolves,” read one message sent to residents of a Rio de Janeiro slum.
One hope is that rich countries will be largely through their outbreaks by the summer and that a vaccine will be well on its way.
I just finished watching this TED talk with Bill Gates. For those of you who are up on their TED talks, this is not the one from five years ago where Bill predicted a pandemic and told us all that we were nowhere near ready. (We, of course, didn't listen.) This is one that was published a few days ago and talks about how we should be responding to the outbreak that we are currently living through. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been committing significant resources toward solving problems exactly like this one. So it's interesting to hear his thoughts. In case you're wondering, herd immunity isn't the answer. We need (1) widespread testing and (2) to be extremely disciplined about our social distancing. In his words: "But money, you know bringing the economy back and doing money, that's more of a reversible thing than bringing people back to life."
The Financial Times has some of the best charts/graphics that I have seen on the coronavirus and its impact. They're also free and regularly updated. Below is the cumulative number of deaths, by number of days since the 10th death (last updated March 23 at 21:00 GMT). I prefer this to the number of cases because it is more precise, though impacted by things like demographics. The number of cases is impacted by how good you are at testing. Some countries have been far better than others. And what we are continuing to learn is that lots of people were and are completely asymptomatic.
Seeing China (and Iran?) continue to flatten out is encouraging. (Note the logarithmic scale.)
Here has been the impact to the Chinese economy. It's slowing coming back.
And here are traffic volumes around the world. This chart was published on Sunday, March 22. At that time, Tokyo looked to be largely business as usual.
Here has been the impact to the Chinese economy. It's slowing coming back.
And here are traffic volumes around the world. This chart was published on Sunday, March 22. At that time, Tokyo looked to be largely business as usual.
