
Nicole Gelinas' recent piece in CityLab is a good reminder that -- despite all of the debates around COVID-19 and urban density -- New York City is actually a really healthy place to live. Part of this obviously has to do with the city's investments in public health. But the biggest factor, Nicole argues, is the city's transit network. Six million people move around New York City each day without a car. That translates into a meaningfully lower traffic fatality rate. New York State's rate is about 4.8 per 100,000, whereas Florida's is 14.7 deaths per 100,000. Taking transit (and having an urban morphology that supports taking transit) also brings along with it other benefits, such as increased walking. And I have to believe that is an important factor. The obesity rate in New York City is thought to be about 22%, compared to a shocking 42% for the country. All of this rolls up into a life expectancy of about 81.2 years for New Yorkers, as of 2017. This is compared to 78.6 years for the US as a whole.
For more on the health of New Yorkers, check out this 2017 Summary of Vital Statistics. (It's the source of the above chart.)
The “contact tracing” API that Apple and Google are working on and that I wrote about earlier this month is set to be released on May 1. Given all the concerns around privacy, it’s now being referred to as “exposure tracing.” The idea, here, is to emphasize that it is being designed to trace the coronavirus and not individuals.
To be clear, we’re talking about APIs, and so third party apps will need to be built on top of this tech before we can start downloading anything to our phones. But I am sure that will happen very soon and I will gladly opt in.
It’s also worth mentioning that this entire concept of smartphone exposure tracing only works when Apple and Google cooperate. Whatever apps ultimately get built need to work across both platforms, otherwise there would be far too many gaps in the network. So this — along with the focus on privacy — has become a bit of good PR for “big tech.”
The smart people working on exposure tracing over at Oxford University seem to think that (alongside other interventions) we could stop this virus with only about 60% of the population using an exposure tracing app. (They ran models with a pretend city of 1 million people.) But even at 50% penetration, they believe it could make a meaningful contribution.
These are numbers I think we could easily get to in major cities. Overall, I suspect it could also make people feel a lot more comfortable about going out. And going out is what’s going to be required as we gradually reopen the global economy. How many of you think you will opt in to something like this once it becomes available?
https://twitter.com/donnelly_b/status/1252086026887192576?s=20
After watching the docuseries, Inside Bill's Brain, I couldn't help but think that the work he and Melinda are doing isn't getting nearly enough exposure. Here they are working tirelessly to eradicate global diseases, like polio, and find new ways to combat climate change. And yet relatively little was done after Bill went on stage five years ago and warned us that a global pandemic could strike at any time. Why? Probably because most of us thought it wouldn't happen to us in the developed world.
But obviously it did happen and along with that Bill has emerged as a level-headed voice of reason. He is calm, serious, and matter of fact about what we know, what we don't know, and what is going to need to happen for us to make it to the other side of this. In his latest long-form blog post (which is also available for download as a PDF), he calls our current situation "the first modern pandemic", as well as Pandemic I. That should signal to you that he continues to believe there will be others.
In it, he summarizes the innovation that will need to happen into five categories: treatments, vaccines, testing, contact tracing, and policies for opening up. Among many other things, he gets into the realities (and timelines) of developing an effective vaccine for the world, as well as the shortcomings of the contact tracing tech that many companies, including Apple and Google, are currently building. I would encourage all of you to have a read.

Nicole Gelinas' recent piece in CityLab is a good reminder that -- despite all of the debates around COVID-19 and urban density -- New York City is actually a really healthy place to live. Part of this obviously has to do with the city's investments in public health. But the biggest factor, Nicole argues, is the city's transit network. Six million people move around New York City each day without a car. That translates into a meaningfully lower traffic fatality rate. New York State's rate is about 4.8 per 100,000, whereas Florida's is 14.7 deaths per 100,000. Taking transit (and having an urban morphology that supports taking transit) also brings along with it other benefits, such as increased walking. And I have to believe that is an important factor. The obesity rate in New York City is thought to be about 22%, compared to a shocking 42% for the country. All of this rolls up into a life expectancy of about 81.2 years for New Yorkers, as of 2017. This is compared to 78.6 years for the US as a whole.
For more on the health of New Yorkers, check out this 2017 Summary of Vital Statistics. (It's the source of the above chart.)
The “contact tracing” API that Apple and Google are working on and that I wrote about earlier this month is set to be released on May 1. Given all the concerns around privacy, it’s now being referred to as “exposure tracing.” The idea, here, is to emphasize that it is being designed to trace the coronavirus and not individuals.
To be clear, we’re talking about APIs, and so third party apps will need to be built on top of this tech before we can start downloading anything to our phones. But I am sure that will happen very soon and I will gladly opt in.
It’s also worth mentioning that this entire concept of smartphone exposure tracing only works when Apple and Google cooperate. Whatever apps ultimately get built need to work across both platforms, otherwise there would be far too many gaps in the network. So this — along with the focus on privacy — has become a bit of good PR for “big tech.”
The smart people working on exposure tracing over at Oxford University seem to think that (alongside other interventions) we could stop this virus with only about 60% of the population using an exposure tracing app. (They ran models with a pretend city of 1 million people.) But even at 50% penetration, they believe it could make a meaningful contribution.
These are numbers I think we could easily get to in major cities. Overall, I suspect it could also make people feel a lot more comfortable about going out. And going out is what’s going to be required as we gradually reopen the global economy. How many of you think you will opt in to something like this once it becomes available?
https://twitter.com/donnelly_b/status/1252086026887192576?s=20
After watching the docuseries, Inside Bill's Brain, I couldn't help but think that the work he and Melinda are doing isn't getting nearly enough exposure. Here they are working tirelessly to eradicate global diseases, like polio, and find new ways to combat climate change. And yet relatively little was done after Bill went on stage five years ago and warned us that a global pandemic could strike at any time. Why? Probably because most of us thought it wouldn't happen to us in the developed world.
But obviously it did happen and along with that Bill has emerged as a level-headed voice of reason. He is calm, serious, and matter of fact about what we know, what we don't know, and what is going to need to happen for us to make it to the other side of this. In his latest long-form blog post (which is also available for download as a PDF), he calls our current situation "the first modern pandemic", as well as Pandemic I. That should signal to you that he continues to believe there will be others.
In it, he summarizes the innovation that will need to happen into five categories: treatments, vaccines, testing, contact tracing, and policies for opening up. Among many other things, he gets into the realities (and timelines) of developing an effective vaccine for the world, as well as the shortcomings of the contact tracing tech that many companies, including Apple and Google, are currently building. I would encourage all of you to have a read.
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog