Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
More specifically, it has this many:
This, according to a NYC government website, equals 8,660 active shed permits covering 1,959,444 linear feet. And on average, these construction sheds are erected for 493 days. If you've been to New York recently, this will all sound right to you.
I thought I had read somewhere that this has to do with a property tax benefit. Something about if you keep your hoarding up after construction completion, you can avoid immediate reassessment.
But according to some sources, the proliferation of sheds is mostly driven by the city's Facade Inspection & Safety Program, which requires that all buildings taller than 6 floors have their facades closely inspected every 5 five years.
So presumably, keeping these up for an extended period of time is the less costly and less risky option.
I'm not an economist, nor am I an expert on China, but according to this recent FT article, more than half of the country's largest developers (based on 2020 sales) are now in default:
More specifically, it has this many:
This, according to a NYC government website, equals 8,660 active shed permits covering 1,959,444 linear feet. And on average, these construction sheds are erected for 493 days. If you've been to New York recently, this will all sound right to you.
I thought I had read somewhere that this has to do with a property tax benefit. Something about if you keep your hoarding up after construction completion, you can avoid immediate reassessment.
But according to some sources, the proliferation of sheds is mostly driven by the city's Facade Inspection & Safety Program, which requires that all buildings taller than 6 floors have their facades closely inspected every 5 five years.
So presumably, keeping these up for an extended period of time is the less costly and less risky option.
I'm not an economist, nor am I an expert on China, but according to this recent FT article, more than half of the country's largest developers (based on 2020 sales) are now in default:
This past week we poured the first bit of concrete in the giant rat slab foundation (or mat foundation) that sits, or will sit, at the bottom of One Delisle. At its deepest point, below the building's core, it will be over 4m tall. Meaning, the area occupied by the gentlemen in the above photo will be fully covered in concrete when it's complete. Note the height of the rebar in the middle of the photo. This picture doesn't even do it justice, though. You need to be on site and down in the bottom of the hole to really feel it. There's a lot of bar, and it's going to be very deep.
In our case, this raft slab foundation will, as it sounds, serve as the building's foundation. This is what the tower will rest on. However, raft slabs can also serve the function of withstanding hydrostatic pressures from below (groundwater). That is the case with the raft slab foundation at Junction House given that we have a watertight "bathtub" design for the underground. However, that's not the case here at One Delisle, as the groundwater levels aren't as high and this will not be a "bathtubbed" underground. So the job of this giant slab is as a mat foundation.
Disclaimer: I am not a structural engineer or a hydrogeological engineer. What do I know?
On top of this, there's a lot currently in the pipeline:
The National Bureau of Statistics of China is saying that, as of last August, there was about 8 billion square meters of real estate under construction in the country. That's very roughly about 80 billion square feet of space, which I'm assuming covers all asset classes.
This is such a big number that I really have no idea if it's excessive or not for a country that is rapidly urbanizing and has some 1.4 billion people. So let's compare it to the US.
Back in 2020, Brian Potter came up with estimates for the entire US building stock. Interestingly enough, he determined that about 90% of buildings in the US are single-family homes. This is what the US builds and continues to build, by a long shot.
However, single-family homes do tend to be smaller than, say, office buildings. So if you instead look at square footage (and not the number of buildings), this percentage drops to about 60% of all buildings in the US.
On a square footage basis, single-family homes are estimated to represent about 200 billion square feet. And in total, Brian estimated the entire US building stock to be around 340 billion square feet (again as of 2020).
This means that, right now, China could have nearly 25% of the entire US building stock under construction. I think that seems like a lot.
Images: FT
This past week we poured the first bit of concrete in the giant rat slab foundation (or mat foundation) that sits, or will sit, at the bottom of One Delisle. At its deepest point, below the building's core, it will be over 4m tall. Meaning, the area occupied by the gentlemen in the above photo will be fully covered in concrete when it's complete. Note the height of the rebar in the middle of the photo. This picture doesn't even do it justice, though. You need to be on site and down in the bottom of the hole to really feel it. There's a lot of bar, and it's going to be very deep.
In our case, this raft slab foundation will, as it sounds, serve as the building's foundation. This is what the tower will rest on. However, raft slabs can also serve the function of withstanding hydrostatic pressures from below (groundwater). That is the case with the raft slab foundation at Junction House given that we have a watertight "bathtub" design for the underground. However, that's not the case here at One Delisle, as the groundwater levels aren't as high and this will not be a "bathtubbed" underground. So the job of this giant slab is as a mat foundation.
Disclaimer: I am not a structural engineer or a hydrogeological engineer. What do I know?
On top of this, there's a lot currently in the pipeline:
The National Bureau of Statistics of China is saying that, as of last August, there was about 8 billion square meters of real estate under construction in the country. That's very roughly about 80 billion square feet of space, which I'm assuming covers all asset classes.
This is such a big number that I really have no idea if it's excessive or not for a country that is rapidly urbanizing and has some 1.4 billion people. So let's compare it to the US.
Back in 2020, Brian Potter came up with estimates for the entire US building stock. Interestingly enough, he determined that about 90% of buildings in the US are single-family homes. This is what the US builds and continues to build, by a long shot.
However, single-family homes do tend to be smaller than, say, office buildings. So if you instead look at square footage (and not the number of buildings), this percentage drops to about 60% of all buildings in the US.
On a square footage basis, single-family homes are estimated to represent about 200 billion square feet. And in total, Brian estimated the entire US building stock to be around 340 billion square feet (again as of 2020).
This means that, right now, China could have nearly 25% of the entire US building stock under construction. I think that seems like a lot.
Images: FT
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
