The State of New York just enacted a new law (on June 14, 2019) requiring that 51% of existing tenants agree to buy their apartments before a building can be converted into a condominium or a cooperative. There was previously no requirement for anyone to buy in order for a conversion to take place. Tenants who chose not to buy, could simply remain in the building as a renter.

Supposedly, the real estate industry believes this new requirement will be a largely impossible threshold to meet, meaning that condo/co-op conversions could now be dead in NYC. There's also an argument that conversions have historically helped many middle class New Yorkers buy a home since they sometimes (usually?) had the chance to buy their apartment below market at the time of a conversion.

I'm not familiar enough with this space to be able to opine on the merits of these arguments, so I won't. Perhaps some of you will in the comment section below. Instead, I will leave you all with a chart showing the median condo sale price in Manhattan over the last ~30 years (taken from the same WSJ article). I like seeing long(er) term charts. Maybe you do too.

Bullpen Research & Consulting and Batory Management just published their Q4-2018 High-Rise Land Insights Report for the Greater Toronto Area. 

Above is a mapping of the estimated per square foot buildable prices for the land that traded hands specifically in Toronto last quarter. 

The average is $178 per square foot. And the projected average sale (condo) price is $1,097 psf. That sounds right. You basically need that kind of end pricing to make the math work with today’s costs.

Across the GTA, the average spread between zoned and unzoned land was almost $40 psf. $159 psf versus $120 psf, respectively.

A full copy of the report can be downloaded here. 

I came across this Hong Kong apartment listing earlier in the week. Sai Ying Pun is the neighborhood.

HK$9.8 million = C$1,554,833 based on today’s exchange rate (1 CAD = 6.30293 HKD).

At 432 square feet (net), that’s C$3,599 psf. But I have also been told that new buildings here could easily fetch C$5,000 psf and probably much more.

There’s certainly a tremendous amount of wealth in Hong Kong. However, the topic of discussion right now is the new money being generated in mainland China.

I am curious what all of this could mean for Hong Kong, it’s place within the PRC, and for real estate long-term.

Hong Kong’s Basic Law stipulates that the region shall maintain a capitalist system and that its current way of life shall be preserved outside of the PRC. 

But that constitutional document is set to expire in 2047 – fifty years after the handover from the British. And one would assume that China would favor more, rather than less, integration. 

Already the Cantonese language – the official language of HK along with English – seems to be getting diluted in favor of the “speech of the officials.”

So what will Hong Kong look like by the middle of the 21st century? Will it simply become a “second city” to Beijing and Shanghai?

Place your bets in the comments below. Or call Miss Winnie.