As a kid growing up in the suburbs, I got my driver's license the day I turned 16. Being able to drive was a big deal. But we know that this desire to drive has been changing in profound ways. Here's some recent stats on the percentage of licensed drivers in the US by age (taken from the WSJ):
In 1983, about 46% of 16-year-olds had a driver's license. By 2014, this number had dropped to 24.5%, which is the lowest it has been in recent years, and was probably impacted by the broader economy. As of 2017, this number was up to about 26%.
If you're a car company, I would imagine that these are pretty important numbers. They represent the top of the sales funnel. Most people probably like to have a driver's license in hand before they go out and buy a car.
Supposedly, some people in Detroit are betting that young people will still eventually buy a car. And when they do, it'll be a nice big one like an SUV or a truck. But, the data suggests that it is not just young people who are eschewing driving.
Here's some data from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (via NPR), looking at the proportion of licensed drivers in the US by all age categories:
While the biggest drop has certainly happened among younger generations, licensing is still down for older cohorts. Based on these numbers, we don't hit parity until somewhere around 50 to 54 years old.
And the only cohorts where licensing has increased significantly are when people reach over 55. Over 70 is up by a huge margin -- more than the drop among 16 year olds -- which is probably a symptom of people living longer.
Some of this decrease among young people can probably be attributed to delayed family formation and people living in denser urban environments, where it is more convenient to get around without a car. But I don't think that's all of it.
Which suggests to me that the race to autonomy is a pretty important one to win.
Over the winter I visited BMW World, and its neighboring museum, in Munich, Germany. I loved seeing how the company got its start and how far it has come since it helped to invent the automobile at the beginning of the 20th century. I think their first product was actually an airplane engine. But you and I both know that the paradigm is changing. The internal combustion engine (ICE) is going away and pretty soon we won't be driving, so much as being driven around by our cars. Bloomberg recently published an interesting article about this shift and about BMW. Here is an excerpt:
The fact that both combustion engines and electric motors find themselves inside the same 18,000-person complex in Dingolfing, BMW’s largest in Europe, makes it a microcosm of a shift overtaking automakers the world over. A visitor can see that 625-horsepower engine—more than twice as powerful as the original from 1985, a luxury product relentlessly branded as “the ultimate driving machine”—then walk around the corner and see its puny electric replacement. You start thinking the better slogan might be “the ultimate combustion engine.” As in: last of its kind.
Electric motors are a hell of a lot simpler to manufacture (and service) than gasoline engines. BMW estimates that they take about 30% less time to make. So the impacts of this transformation span everything from supply chain to human capital. Today, about 10% of the work that goes on in Dingolfing is related to electric vehicles.
Today we visited BMW Welt (World) and the BMW Museum in Munich. BMW Welt was designed by COOP HIMMELB(L)AU out of Vienna. It is the result of a design competition that the BMW Group held in 2001. Construction of the ~73,000 square meter facility was completed in 2007. The project is centered around a great hall and an elevated vehicle delivery area known as Premiere. It was designed -- and this includes the HVAC system -- to handle 40 car deliveries per hour, or 250 per day. I guess they don't work a full 8 hours. Below are two photos that I took of the delivery area. The circles you see on the floor in the second picture are rotating platforms. This is where you want to pick up your new car.
And here is a plan of the entire Welt space via COOP HIMMELB(L)AU:
I also really enjoyed the BMW Museum, which is housed in a separate building adjacent to the BMW Tower (the one that looks like engine cylinders). The "art cars" were a lot of fun. I'm sure that many of you will be able to guess the artist behind this one:
But what I enjoyed most were the classics like this one here:
The least interesting cars for me were the ones that weren't old enough to be "classic", but also weren't new and shiny. This can happen with architectural styles as well. Designs sometime need time to settle in. For more photos of BMW Welt and the BMW Museum, follow me on Instagram. Drawings/Isometrics: COOP HIMMELB(L)AU
As a kid growing up in the suburbs, I got my driver's license the day I turned 16. Being able to drive was a big deal. But we know that this desire to drive has been changing in profound ways. Here's some recent stats on the percentage of licensed drivers in the US by age (taken from the WSJ):
In 1983, about 46% of 16-year-olds had a driver's license. By 2014, this number had dropped to 24.5%, which is the lowest it has been in recent years, and was probably impacted by the broader economy. As of 2017, this number was up to about 26%.
If you're a car company, I would imagine that these are pretty important numbers. They represent the top of the sales funnel. Most people probably like to have a driver's license in hand before they go out and buy a car.
Supposedly, some people in Detroit are betting that young people will still eventually buy a car. And when they do, it'll be a nice big one like an SUV or a truck. But, the data suggests that it is not just young people who are eschewing driving.
Here's some data from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (via NPR), looking at the proportion of licensed drivers in the US by all age categories:
While the biggest drop has certainly happened among younger generations, licensing is still down for older cohorts. Based on these numbers, we don't hit parity until somewhere around 50 to 54 years old.
And the only cohorts where licensing has increased significantly are when people reach over 55. Over 70 is up by a huge margin -- more than the drop among 16 year olds -- which is probably a symptom of people living longer.
Some of this decrease among young people can probably be attributed to delayed family formation and people living in denser urban environments, where it is more convenient to get around without a car. But I don't think that's all of it.
Which suggests to me that the race to autonomy is a pretty important one to win.
Over the winter I visited BMW World, and its neighboring museum, in Munich, Germany. I loved seeing how the company got its start and how far it has come since it helped to invent the automobile at the beginning of the 20th century. I think their first product was actually an airplane engine. But you and I both know that the paradigm is changing. The internal combustion engine (ICE) is going away and pretty soon we won't be driving, so much as being driven around by our cars. Bloomberg recently published an interesting article about this shift and about BMW. Here is an excerpt:
The fact that both combustion engines and electric motors find themselves inside the same 18,000-person complex in Dingolfing, BMW’s largest in Europe, makes it a microcosm of a shift overtaking automakers the world over. A visitor can see that 625-horsepower engine—more than twice as powerful as the original from 1985, a luxury product relentlessly branded as “the ultimate driving machine”—then walk around the corner and see its puny electric replacement. You start thinking the better slogan might be “the ultimate combustion engine.” As in: last of its kind.
Electric motors are a hell of a lot simpler to manufacture (and service) than gasoline engines. BMW estimates that they take about 30% less time to make. So the impacts of this transformation span everything from supply chain to human capital. Today, about 10% of the work that goes on in Dingolfing is related to electric vehicles.
Today we visited BMW Welt (World) and the BMW Museum in Munich. BMW Welt was designed by COOP HIMMELB(L)AU out of Vienna. It is the result of a design competition that the BMW Group held in 2001. Construction of the ~73,000 square meter facility was completed in 2007. The project is centered around a great hall and an elevated vehicle delivery area known as Premiere. It was designed -- and this includes the HVAC system -- to handle 40 car deliveries per hour, or 250 per day. I guess they don't work a full 8 hours. Below are two photos that I took of the delivery area. The circles you see on the floor in the second picture are rotating platforms. This is where you want to pick up your new car.
And here is a plan of the entire Welt space via COOP HIMMELB(L)AU:
I also really enjoyed the BMW Museum, which is housed in a separate building adjacent to the BMW Tower (the one that looks like engine cylinders). The "art cars" were a lot of fun. I'm sure that many of you will be able to guess the artist behind this one:
But what I enjoyed most were the classics like this one here:
The least interesting cars for me were the ones that weren't old enough to be "classic", but also weren't new and shiny. This can happen with architectural styles as well. Designs sometime need time to settle in. For more photos of BMW Welt and the BMW Museum, follow me on Instagram. Drawings/Isometrics: COOP HIMMELB(L)AU
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
