
September 2025 was a milestone month for Waymo in California: It reached 1,000,000 paid driverless rides. This represents a year-over-year increase of ~182%, which is a pretty good sign that the technology works and that customers like it.
(Note: The dramatic falloff in rides in June 2025 was because of anti-ICE protests and vandalism taking place in Los Angeles and San Francisco. The company decided to temporarily suspend operations.)
This is still a small fraction of the traditional ride-hailing market, though. According to the California Public Utilities Commission, Uber and Lyft combined complete somewhere around 300-320 million passenger trips per year in the state. That averages out to roughly 25-27 million trips per month for context.
Still, the writing is on the wall. AV usage is growing rapidly and I think it's only a matter of time until it supplants traditional ride-hailing, and perhaps even car ownership.
Chart via Charlie Bilello

Here is a chart, via the New York Times, showing the US states with the greatest net migration in 2023:

This is calculated by looking at the difference between arrivals and departures for each state, but only within the US. And for the first year since 2014, Texas has overtaken Florida, though admittedly not by much.
I saw some discussion about this on Twitter, but I think it's important to point out that this is only domestic migration. Between 2023 and 2024, the US grew by some 3.3 million people. And 84% of this growth (about 2.8 million people) came from international migration.
Here's an excerpt from a recent post by Scott Galloway talking about LA's devastating wildfires:
The question isn’t whether to rebuild, but where. Pacific Palisades is a wonderful place to live, but those amazing views of beautiful topography of foothills, mountains, canyons, and ridgelines are located in fire zones. Early estimates put the total cost of the wildfires at $250 to $275 billion. The property insurance bill is expected to easily top $20 billion. California’s insurance market was already in crisis, as leading insurers had done the math and decided to leave the state or not renew policies in fire-prone areas. California’s state-backed FAIR Plan is the insurer of last resort in these areas. Statewide, the number of FAIR Plan policies in 2024 increased 40% from 2023, and 85% in Pacific Palisades. Continuing to underwrite wood-built craftsman homes in Altadena (median home value: $1.3 million) and mansions along PCH is a wealth transfer from California’s taxpayers to some of its wealthiest people.
This isn’t unique to California; 10 states across the political spectrum, including Florida and Texas, sued a federal flood insurance program after it adjusted premiums to better reflect climate realities. As one meme put it: You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company does.
He's not wrong, though I'm sure that the impacts of the deadliest and most destructive wildfires in California's history were felt by a broad cross section of people. And, no matter how much money you have, losing your home is going to be traumatizing. My mom's house in New Brunswick burnt down when she was a young girl and she remembers it vividly. You lose things that are priceless. Still, the questions of where and how to rebuild are important ones. Living in a high-risk area has costs associated with it. I do think it's only fair to ask who will be underwriting these costs.
Here are the most populous states:

Here are the top 10 states by numeric growth:

And here are the top 10 states by percent growth:

When looking at overall numeric growth, Texas and Florida still land at the top. (They're also among the highest in terms of percentage growth, despite already being the second and third most populous states.) But now states like California and New York show up on the top 10 list, which speaks to their ability to draw people from around the world.
None of this is particularly surprising, but I still think it's valuable to see the numbers.
Cover photo by Courtney Rose on Unsplash
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