After watching the docuseries, Inside Bill's Brain, I couldn't help but think that the work he and Melinda are doing isn't getting nearly enough exposure. Here they are working tirelessly to eradicate global diseases, like polio, and find new ways to combat climate change. And yet relatively little was done after Bill went on stage five years ago and warned us that a global pandemic could strike at any time. Why? Probably because most of us thought it wouldn't happen to us in the developed world.
But obviously it did happen and along with that Bill has emerged as a level-headed voice of reason. He is calm, serious, and matter of fact about what we know, what we don't know, and what is going to need to happen for us to make it to the other side of this. In his
After watching the docuseries, Inside Bill's Brain, I couldn't help but think that the work he and Melinda are doing isn't getting nearly enough exposure. Here they are working tirelessly to eradicate global diseases, like polio, and find new ways to combat climate change. And yet relatively little was done after Bill went on stage five years ago and warned us that a global pandemic could strike at any time. Why? Probably because most of us thought it wouldn't happen to us in the developed world.
But obviously it did happen and along with that Bill has emerged as a level-headed voice of reason. He is calm, serious, and matter of fact about what we know, what we don't know, and what is going to need to happen for us to make it to the other side of this. In his
), he calls our current situation "the first modern pandemic", as well as Pandemic I. That should signal to you that he continues to believe there will be others.
In it, he summarizes the innovation that will need to happen into five categories: treatments, vaccines, testing, contact tracing, and policies for opening up. Among many other things, he gets into the realities (and timelines) of developing an effective vaccine for the world, as well as the shortcomings of the contact tracing tech that many companies, including Apple and Google, are currently building. I would encourage all of you to have a read.
The Shed in Hudson Yards has an exhibition on right now called Manual Override. It features the work of five artists. One of those artists is Lynn Hershman Leeson, who is known for exploring the relationship between humans and technology (naturally, she lives in the Bay Area). Her piece at the exhibition is called Shadow Stalker.
The way Shadow Stalker works is that you enter your email address -- a single data point. The installation then pulls up all of the publicly accessible information associated with your email address. Things like your name, age, address, phone numbers, where you were last seen, and more.
She refers to this information as your "digital shadow." It is all of the personal information that is publicly accessible because of the internet. And it is the kind of the information that is already used for things like "predictive policing." Software that predicts where crime is likely to occur.
I am fairly public as a result of this blog. Already this year I have written over 75,000 words. So I can only imagine what the internet knows about me. Probably a lot. But of course, I am volunteering a lot of this information. What does the internet know about us that we didn't explicitly tell it?
If you're interested in learning more about Shadow Stalker, here's a video.
), he calls our current situation "the first modern pandemic", as well as Pandemic I. That should signal to you that he continues to believe there will be others.
In it, he summarizes the innovation that will need to happen into five categories: treatments, vaccines, testing, contact tracing, and policies for opening up. Among many other things, he gets into the realities (and timelines) of developing an effective vaccine for the world, as well as the shortcomings of the contact tracing tech that many companies, including Apple and Google, are currently building. I would encourage all of you to have a read.
The Shed in Hudson Yards has an exhibition on right now called Manual Override. It features the work of five artists. One of those artists is Lynn Hershman Leeson, who is known for exploring the relationship between humans and technology (naturally, she lives in the Bay Area). Her piece at the exhibition is called Shadow Stalker.
The way Shadow Stalker works is that you enter your email address -- a single data point. The installation then pulls up all of the publicly accessible information associated with your email address. Things like your name, age, address, phone numbers, where you were last seen, and more.
She refers to this information as your "digital shadow." It is all of the personal information that is publicly accessible because of the internet. And it is the kind of the information that is already used for things like "predictive policing." Software that predicts where crime is likely to occur.
I am fairly public as a result of this blog. Already this year I have written over 75,000 words. So I can only imagine what the internet knows about me. Probably a lot. But of course, I am volunteering a lot of this information. What does the internet know about us that we didn't explicitly tell it?
If you're interested in learning more about Shadow Stalker, here's a video.
For two reasons, I really like Fred Wilson's recent blog post on hypothetical value to real value. Firstly, it is structured in the way that I think good blog posts are structured. He starts with a personal story (about this son) and then uses that to take a position and impart some knowledge about the venture capital industry. It makes for a more engaging read. Secondly, I like how he describes the journey and spread between hypothetical value and real value:
Venture capitalists and seed funds and angel investors make or lose money on the journey from hypothetical value to real value. And when the spread between the two narrows, the money we make is less. When the spread increases, the money we make is more. It is easier to drink your own Kool Aid in the world of hypothetical values. You handicap the odds of winning more aggressively. You trade ownership for capital at work. You accept the new normal. Real value doesn’t move so fast. Because it is right in front of you. You can see it. So it is not prone to flights of fancy. I try to keep this framework front and center in my brain as we meet with founders and work to find transactions that work for everyone. I find it to be a stabilizing force in an unstable market.
All of this is related to the notion that you make real money when you're right about something that most people think is wrong. Because that would be hypothetical value. If it were real value, then everyone would simply believe it. It would be "right in front of you." And this is pretty much true of all competitive marketplaces, including the real estate industry. Risk and uncertainty create opportunity.
For two reasons, I really like Fred Wilson's recent blog post on hypothetical value to real value. Firstly, it is structured in the way that I think good blog posts are structured. He starts with a personal story (about this son) and then uses that to take a position and impart some knowledge about the venture capital industry. It makes for a more engaging read. Secondly, I like how he describes the journey and spread between hypothetical value and real value:
Venture capitalists and seed funds and angel investors make or lose money on the journey from hypothetical value to real value. And when the spread between the two narrows, the money we make is less. When the spread increases, the money we make is more. It is easier to drink your own Kool Aid in the world of hypothetical values. You handicap the odds of winning more aggressively. You trade ownership for capital at work. You accept the new normal. Real value doesn’t move so fast. Because it is right in front of you. You can see it. So it is not prone to flights of fancy. I try to keep this framework front and center in my brain as we meet with founders and work to find transactions that work for everyone. I find it to be a stabilizing force in an unstable market.
All of this is related to the notion that you make real money when you're right about something that most people think is wrong. Because that would be hypothetical value. If it were real value, then everyone would simply believe it. It would be "right in front of you." And this is pretty much true of all competitive marketplaces, including the real estate industry. Risk and uncertainty create opportunity.
