When I was in grad school they used to always tell us that architects are a leading indicator for the development business. Because if architects are getting fewer jobs/billings, it means that at some point in the future there will be fewer construction starts and then fewer completions. And not surprisingly, that is what we are seeing happening right now. Below is the latest data from the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (via Bloomberg).

Billings, inquiries (an even earlier leading indicator for billings), and design contracts are down:

And it seems to be most pronounced in the West and the Northeast:

This is always something to watch if you want to try and forecast where hard costs might be going and what completions might look like in the next few years.

I was recently on Monocle Radio (The Urbanist) talking with Andrew Tuck about our Steelport project in Hamilton, Ontario. For those of you who aren't familiar, Steelport is a new 800-acre industrial development on the city's waterfront (almost the size of Central Park in Manhattan). Slate acquired the site in 2022 and, when fully built out, it is expected to create up to 23,000 new jobs and nearly $4 billion in economic activity for the Ontario economy. To have a listen to the interview, click here. It's only about 8 minutes.

Thanks for having me on the episode, Monocle. But more importantly, a shout-out to my colleague Steven Dejonckheere. He lives and breathes this project every day, and is the real mind behind it.

I definitely wouldn't call a 40-foot wide lot minuscule. But I guess when it's located on the side of a mountain in Zell am See, Austria; you have a required 13-foot setback on both sides; and your architect is one of the world's leading practitioners, it starts to feel a bit smaller. This is the recently completed Austrian House, designed by Rem Koolhaas:

I'm always drawn to houses like these because they demand creativity. You can't just repeat what was done on that other 40-foot wide lot, because then you might conclude that the lot is unbuildable. And it's not. You just have to solve the puzzle. Then you've unlocked something that that many, or perhaps most, thought wasn't possible. And that's truly exciting to me.

For more on the Austrian House, check out Architectural Digest.

Photography by Pernille Loof and Thomas Loof