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In yesterday's post about bottom-up urban development, I mentioned (in parentheses) that the focus on regenerating local economies is arguably even more important in the context of Japan, where a shrinking population is creating urban decline in many communities. And the reason I said this is because it is widely known that Japan has a demographic problem.
Since 2009, the country has seen its population decline every single year. Currently, it is hovering at just over 120 million people, but by 2050, it is expected to fall to roughly 100 million (or lower), with people aged 65+ accounting for nearly 40% of the population.
When this is your backdrop, you're usually more concerned about urban decline than you are about building enough new housing. As Fred Wilson mentioned in this recent post, "pressing issues like the unaffordability of housing, for example, can quickly change if we are living in a shrinking world, not a growing world."
Of course, it's not just Japan. The global fertility rate (as of 2024) stands at around 2.25 live births per woman. This is not that much higher than the replacement level of 2.1, and it's being largely propped up by only one region: Sub-Saharan Africa (>4 births per woman). Remove this region, and the world is now already shrinking in population.
This will have dramatic consequences not just on our cities and real estate markets, but on the global economy as a whole, which is why some people, like venture capitalists, are already betting that the world will need to move from labor-bound to energy-bound. What this means is that we're going to need a lot more energy-consuming tech to compensate for the fact that we have less of the other stuff.
You know, humans.
If you're a regular reader of this blog, you'll know that I like trains. So when I come across a video titled "This Sahara Railway Is One of the Most Extreme in the World," there's a high probably that I'm going to watch it — even if it's over 6 years old. Now for a second, I thought that I may have already written about this rail line, but AI tells me that I haven't.
The Mauritania Railway is one of the most iconic and famous lines in the world. It's approximately 704 kilometers long and it was built for the sole purpose of transporting iron ore from the Zouérat mines in northern Mauritania to the port city of Nouadhibou on the Atlantic coast. Iron ore represents somewhere around half of Mauritania's exports.
This railway runs some of the longest trains in the world — each train can have over 200 cars, which translates into trains that are up to 3 kilometers long. They can also transport up to 17,000 tons of iron ore, making it one of the heaviest trains anywhere in the world.
But what I find most fascinating about this railway is the informal economy that unintentionally emerged on top of it. Because the trains return from Nouadhibou to Zouérat empty, local fishermen and traders use it to transport product inland to towns along the line. And for many of these towns, this is their lifeline — it's their only connection to the outside world.
It's not a fun trip, nor is it a safe trip. It also takes 20 hours to travel from one end to the other. But it's importantly free and it provides economic opportunity. It's an extreme example of the power of rail. Here you have a single railway that likely shoulders at least a quarter of the country's entire GDP, and that's without including any of the benefits derived from its informal contributions.
If you haven't yet seen
In yesterday's post about bottom-up urban development, I mentioned (in parentheses) that the focus on regenerating local economies is arguably even more important in the context of Japan, where a shrinking population is creating urban decline in many communities. And the reason I said this is because it is widely known that Japan has a demographic problem.
Since 2009, the country has seen its population decline every single year. Currently, it is hovering at just over 120 million people, but by 2050, it is expected to fall to roughly 100 million (or lower), with people aged 65+ accounting for nearly 40% of the population.
When this is your backdrop, you're usually more concerned about urban decline than you are about building enough new housing. As Fred Wilson mentioned in this recent post, "pressing issues like the unaffordability of housing, for example, can quickly change if we are living in a shrinking world, not a growing world."
Of course, it's not just Japan. The global fertility rate (as of 2024) stands at around 2.25 live births per woman. This is not that much higher than the replacement level of 2.1, and it's being largely propped up by only one region: Sub-Saharan Africa (>4 births per woman). Remove this region, and the world is now already shrinking in population.
This will have dramatic consequences not just on our cities and real estate markets, but on the global economy as a whole, which is why some people, like venture capitalists, are already betting that the world will need to move from labor-bound to energy-bound. What this means is that we're going to need a lot more energy-consuming tech to compensate for the fact that we have less of the other stuff.
You know, humans.
If you're a regular reader of this blog, you'll know that I like trains. So when I come across a video titled "This Sahara Railway Is One of the Most Extreme in the World," there's a high probably that I'm going to watch it — even if it's over 6 years old. Now for a second, I thought that I may have already written about this rail line, but AI tells me that I haven't.
The Mauritania Railway is one of the most iconic and famous lines in the world. It's approximately 704 kilometers long and it was built for the sole purpose of transporting iron ore from the Zouérat mines in northern Mauritania to the port city of Nouadhibou on the Atlantic coast. Iron ore represents somewhere around half of Mauritania's exports.
This railway runs some of the longest trains in the world — each train can have over 200 cars, which translates into trains that are up to 3 kilometers long. They can also transport up to 17,000 tons of iron ore, making it one of the heaviest trains anywhere in the world.
But what I find most fascinating about this railway is the informal economy that unintentionally emerged on top of it. Because the trains return from Nouadhibou to Zouérat empty, local fishermen and traders use it to transport product inland to towns along the line. And for many of these towns, this is their lifeline — it's their only connection to the outside world.
It's not a fun trip, nor is it a safe trip. It also takes 20 hours to travel from one end to the other. But it's importantly free and it provides economic opportunity. It's an extreme example of the power of rail. Here you have a single railway that likely shoulders at least a quarter of the country's entire GDP, and that's without including any of the benefits derived from its informal contributions.
If you haven't yet seen
Cover photo by Andrzej Kryszpiniuk on Unsplash
If you're familiar with the first two publications, you'll know that these books are heavily illustrated. Lots of maps, charts, and diagrams. So they make great coffee table books. But they're also filled with insightful essays -- this one has 37 of them.
In this particular book the focus is on the following:
"It identifies current trends that are making cities more fragmented, less equitable and environmentally more damaging, and argues powerfully for a more integrated social, environmental and spatial approach that can inform and inspire city-makers that are shaping an increasingly urban world."
I am sharing this with all of you today because I have always really enjoyed these books. They have a way of quickly putting things into perspective globally.
Around 2.5 billion more people are expected to live in an urban agglomeration by 2050. And 90% of this growth is expected to happen in just two places: Asia and Africa. This is an unprecedented shift that will obviously create many challenges and many opportunities.
This book is about that.
Image: Phaidon
Cover photo by Andrzej Kryszpiniuk on Unsplash
If you're familiar with the first two publications, you'll know that these books are heavily illustrated. Lots of maps, charts, and diagrams. So they make great coffee table books. But they're also filled with insightful essays -- this one has 37 of them.
In this particular book the focus is on the following:
"It identifies current trends that are making cities more fragmented, less equitable and environmentally more damaging, and argues powerfully for a more integrated social, environmental and spatial approach that can inform and inspire city-makers that are shaping an increasingly urban world."
I am sharing this with all of you today because I have always really enjoyed these books. They have a way of quickly putting things into perspective globally.
Around 2.5 billion more people are expected to live in an urban agglomeration by 2050. And 90% of this growth is expected to happen in just two places: Asia and Africa. This is an unprecedented shift that will obviously create many challenges and many opportunities.
This book is about that.
Image: Phaidon
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