A few people sent me this excellent article by Noah Smith today. In it, he talks about the institutionalization of the real estate industry and some of the challenges with developing smaller-scaled projects. I mean, just look at how the industry has concentrated itself:
These imperatives privilege a concentration of the most well-capitalized firms who have done the most projects before. In 2022, nearly 25% of all multifamily units started in the country (more than 132,000) were commenced by just 25 developers. That’s a strikingly high percentage in a country of more than 60,000 developers. Similar trends exist for new single-family homes. According to the National Association of Home Builders, in 1989 the ten largest builders “captured 8.7% of closings. By the year 2000, the share was 18.7%; and by 2018, 31.5%, reaching above 30% for the first time.” In 2022, that number reached 43.2%.
These figures are fascinating but they are not surprising. Most developers have a minimum project size and, over time, it tends to grow. Market factors dictate this. The irony is that smaller projects are often great for cities. Think about how often urbanists like to criticize large-format retail vs. fine-grained retail.
If it doesn’t already exist, someone should create a YouTube channel covering the smallest development projects from around the world. I would watch that.
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