Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.
Dan Frommer has just just released his latest Consumer Trends report (2023). If you’d like to download a free copy, you can do that over here. It is amazing to see how big of a deal Tik Tok has become. In Q3 2022, the average Android user spent 98 minutes per day in the app. That is a lot, and it’s roughly 2x what Facebook and Instagram each saw (though if you combine these two apps, I guess they’re pretty similar). Either way, this is where people’s attention is now being spent. For those of us in real estate, the report also has some interesting slides on grocery stores. The key message here is that physical stores remain hugely important.
The year-over-year change in online grocery spending is now flat to a little negative:
No matter which generation you ask, more people prefer shopping for groceries in-store, versus online:
And even when people do shop for groceries “online”, they still tend to pick them up from their local store or have that local store deliver it to them (so the store matters):
Last week, Axios revealed that TikTok is looking to hire a bunch of people that can help the company build out fulfillment warehouses and an entire e-commerce supply chain system for its users. All of this was discovered through various job listings that the company has posted to LinkedIn.
Broadly speaking, this is I think interesting for two reasons. Firstly, it is an atypical approach compared to other social networks. Instagram allows people to sell stuff via its platform, but it’s done through an asset-light approach. What TikTok is doing is more Amazon meets social. (Though this is not my area of expertise and I’m going to need someone like Ben Thompson to do a deep dive into TikTok’s business model.)
Secondly, I like to think about the physical spaces that service our online activities and what any changes might mean for our cities. Today if you order something from UberEats, it may come to you from a ghost kitchen that is servicing multiple restaurant brands and various food apps, and has no front-of-house operations. Tomorrow if you order something you see on TikTok, it may come to you from one of their warehouses.
This is not any different than how Amazon works today, except for the fact that TikTok has this incredibly powerful and sticky social layer. If you take this to an extreme, it’s almost as if our physical spaces are slowly becoming back-of-house providers to front-of-house spaces that only exist somewhere online. Who needs Zuck’s metaverse, we may already be living in one.
This is perhaps the wrong post to be writing right now with gas prices where they are, but lately I’ve been thinking about parking garage designs. We have talked a lot about parking minimums and other related topics on this blog, but let’s put all of these aside for today and assume that parking garages are a thing that will continue to exist in our cities.
Generally speaking, parking garages are fairly utilitarian spaces. They store cars and they usually aren’t that nice. And in the case of public garages, they often smell like urine. But there are some extraordinary examples out there. Miami immediately comes to mind as a city with some pretty cool garages. I mean, when you have one designed by Herzog & de Meuron (1111 Lincoln Road) that is usually a pretty good indicator.
When I was there in January, we went walking one night through the Design District and we ended up on the roof of “Museum Garage” to take some photos and take in the views. Once we got there, we found people doing everything from eating dinner to filming TikTok videos. Great spaces attract people. It also helps when all of your parking is above-grade, which is the case in Miami.
Here is another example from Sydney (also pictured above). In this case, it’s a residential parking garage and Craig & Karl were hired to create a colorful geometric mural. Garages are a perfect place to be a bit more playful and have some fun. I think we should do more of this.
I just discovered the work and writing of Dror Poleg. Initially trained as an economic historian and media theorist, Dror went on to work in advertising, tech, and real estate private equity, among probably a bunch of other things. Today he mostly writes. He’s the author of Rethinking Real Estate: A Roadmap To Technology’s Impact on the World’s Largest Asset Class. I haven’t read it (yet), but I did just subscribe to his weekly newsletter. Here are a couple of excerpts from a recent post called, “Rise of the 10X Class.”
In 2020, things are very different. Charli D’Amelio, a TikTok star that 99% of you have likely never heard of, makes $48,000 per post. By uploading one short video every day, the 16-year-old D’Amelio can earn 20 times more than the world’s most successful singer earned in 1801. Charli is scalable in a way that was possible only for a tiny group of TV, film, and pop stars 20 years ago, and was not possible at all in Elizabeth Billington’s time.
The internet makes it possible for many knowledge employees to work from anywhere. The earning potential of (many of) the most productive employees is no longer capped by geography. As a result, we will see the emergence of a new class of people earning salaries that are an order of magnitude higher than what we saw in previous decades.
Note that I am not talking about the emergence of a handful of highly-paid superstars in the vein of Hollywood’s Brad Pitt or Tom Hanks. I am talking about micro-stars in the vein of TikTok’s Charli D’Amelio: a whole new layer of professionals than earn incomes that are a level below the biggest earners on in their field, but still much higher than what the average employee (or singer, or dancer) could earn in the pre-internet era.
I call this new layer of professionals the 10X Class.
These days, everybody seems to be talking about the 15-minute city — Bloomberg, Treehugger, the Financial Times, as well as countless others. While not a new concept, it is a moniker that is easier for most people to digest. COVID-19 has also created the right backdrop for the moment that it is currently enjoying.
The 15-minute city is a polycentric and somewhat decentralized approach to urbanism. It is about encouraging and creating multiple centers of urban activity near where people live. The idea being that everybody should have most of their essential services within a 15-minute walk of their home. Put even more simply, it’s about creating an urban environment where people can live locally.
The benefits to this are numerous. It encourages more compact forms of development, which in turn encourages people to rely more heavily on active modes of transportation such as walking and cycling. The result is less commuting, less carbon emissions, more time, and likely better health outcomes given the reliance on active mobility.
Indeed, living in a walkable urban community is something that I personally put a huge value on. If I can’t walk out of my home to go grab a coffee and something to eat, it’s probably not the neighborhood for me. But at the same time, I don’t think we can ignore the fact that there are powerful centralizing forces present within our cities.
As Natalie Whittle points out in this FT article from the summer, new technologies — from the telegraph to the internet — have always elicited predictions that humans would now flee cities and move to the countryside. While it is true that there are other technologies — everything from the streetcar to the automobile — that have allowed us to decentralize to a greater extent, most of us are all still bound to cities.
In fact, you could argue that the opposite of decentralization has played out. As we have transitioned to a knowledge and information economy, the returns to being embedded within cities and within a particular place have only become greater.
Take for example the phenomenon of “collab houses” that has been playing out in Los Angeles for some time now, including during this pandemic. Collab houses are typically LA mansions where clusters of young people come and live together in order to create content for platforms like YouTube and TikTok. It’s like a big dorm for creators. And supposedly the biggest one is Hype House.
What’s fascinating to me about this phenomenon is that it reinforces two things. One, if you want to be rich and famous (emphasis on famous), Los Angeles is seemingly still an important place to be. And two, if you really want to be at the top of your game, it’s apparently not enough to be in the same city as other likeminded individuals; you also need to be under the same roof, bouncing ideas around and pushing one another.
So what does this all mean? Well, maybe this time is different and we are all currently living through a reorganization of how we will live, work and play. Or, maybe this time isn’t all that different. And the 15-minute city, while an important goal, won’t be the be-all and end-all of modern city building.
I just finished reading about an apartment building in Los Angeles that is currently retrofitting its amenity spaces to include, among other things, an appropriately spread out co-working space, two podcast rooms, and a TikTok studio. This latter amenity will be a roughly 100 square foot room with camera-ready lighting, tripods, and mirrors. It was described in the article as the perfect place for one or two people to create things and entertain themselves.
The gist of the article is that home offices are the new must-have amenity and that developers have started to rethink apartment amenities in light of this. But I also take this to be a sign of the times. We are living in a world of content creation. Whether you’re a so-called influencer or not, TikTok has, for a lot of young people, replaced many other forms of entertainment and everybody, at this point, probably needs their own podcast.
It is also true that there’s an “amenities arm race” going on within the apartment sector. This is nothing new and doesn’t have much, if anything, to do with this pandemic. Amenities have been how you differentiate your offering. And when you’re constantly selling (i.e. leasing all the time), they do become important. So here’s to podcast rooms and TikTok studios. If you had your pick, what kind of amenities would you like to see in your building?
This is the topic of Benedict Evan’s latest blog post, which is all about the internet, regulation, and the rise of China, as well as other countries. The internet is now deeply ingrained in everyday life. As of 2017, about 40% of Americans had met their partners online. We do everything online. But 80-90% of the world’s internet users are now outside of the US. There are more smartphone users in China than in the US and western Europe combined. And venture capital dollars have started to diversify away from just the US (see above chart). All of this — but mostly Tiktok — has Americans questioning how best to handle and how best to regulate.
Here’s an excerpt from Benedict’s post:
Both of these are captured in Tiktok. This is the first time that Americans have really had to deal with their teenagers using a form of mass media that isn’t created in their country by people who mostly share their values. It’s from somewhere else. That’s compounded by the fact that the ‘somewhere else’ is China, with all of the political and geopolitical issues that come with that, but I’d suggest that the core, structural issue is that it’s foreign. This is, of course, a problem that the rest of the world has been wrestling with since 1994, but it comes as something of a shock in Washington DC. There’s an old joke that war is how God teaches Americans geography – now it’s regulation.
Last week, audio clips from an internal Q&A session at Facebook were leaked and published by the Verge. These meetings have historically always been private. In what I think was the right move, the company then decided to publicly livestream a subsequent Q&A session — you know, to show that they had nothing to hide.
The media tended to focus on Mark Zuckerberg’s comments about the threat of Facebook being broken up by regulators. #BreakUpBigTech. Lots of people are also attempting to glean what this leak might signal about the company’s current corporate culture. But there are lots of other interesting soundbites.
Here’s an excerpt from Zuckerberg about the Chinese social media app, TikTok:
So yeah. I mean, TikTok is doing well. One of the things that’s especially notable about TikTok is, for a while, the internet landscape was kind of a bunch of internet companies that were primarily American companies. And then there was this parallel universe of Chinese companies that pretty much only were offering their services in China. And we had Tencent who was trying to spread some of their services into Southeast Asia. Alibaba has spread a bunch of their payment services to Southeast Asia. Broadly, in terms of global expansion, that had been pretty limited, and TikTok, which is built by this company Beijing ByteDance, is really the first consumer internet product built by one of the Chinese tech giants that is doing quite well around the world. It’s starting to do well in the US, especially with young folks. It’s growing really quickly in India. I think it’s past Instagram now in India in terms of scale. So yeah, it’s a very interesting phenomenon.
TikTok now has over 1.4 billion installs outside of China according to TechCrunch. And in the first half of this year, it supposedly booked more than $7 billion in revenue (though most of it came from China). The company is also saying that it posted its first profit in June of this year.
All of this is, indeed, “a very interesting phenomenon.”
But it’s even more interesting because this is probably the first consumer-facing Chinese internet product with massive global adoption. And it has Facebook paying attention. They’re now the ones who have to play copycat — their version of TikTok is called Lasso. Of course, it’s not nearly as popular.
