Tag: the feds

• Where are rates going?

  Real estate is a highly levered asset class, which means
  that pricing is sensitive to interest rate changes.

  Larry Summers recently published a post on his blog
  where he argued that the Fed (US) is being far too complacent about their
  ability to respond effectively to a future recession. He sees this as their
  biggest monetary policy challenge going forward.

  Given the potential impact to real estate and city building
  as a whole, I thought I would summarize some of his key points:

  • Private sector GDP growth in the US averaged
    1.3% over the last year
  • Since the 1960s, this level of tepid growth has
    typically foreshadowed a recession
  • Larry sees > 50% chance that the US economy
    will enter a recession in the next 3 years
  • 400-500 basis points of monetary easing is
    usually needed to counter recessionary pressures
  • The Feds will likely not have this much room to
    play with when the next recession comes along

  I don’t think anyone could have predicted that rates
  would remain so low for so long. (10-year Treasury = ~1.6% at the moment.) Still,
  my view has been that rates in Canada and the US won’t be posting meaningful
  increases anytime soon. And Larry’s post reinforces that for me.

  What’s your view?

  2016.09.09

• Share your big idea for Canada’s #Capital2067

  

  https://500px.com/embed.js

  On Thursday night I spoke at an Urbanism Lab event in Ottawa put on by the National Capital Commission.

  The event was all about the interconnection between the online world of blogging and social media, and the offline world of tangible city building.

  More specifically, one of the goals was to help inspire institutions, such as the National Capital Commission, to better leverage these new channels in order to get their message out.

  Social media and blogging may be ubiquitous, but lots of organizations are still getting their heads around it.

  So today I thought I would do my part and share something with all of you that, truthfully, I didn’t know was underway until I visited Ottawa.

  But first, how many of you (Canadians) are exactly aware of what the National Capital Commission does?

  The NCC is a federal Crown corporation that is focused on 3 specific mandates:

  1. They are the long-term urban planner of federal lands in Canada’s Capital Region. They are also the largest landowner in the region.
  2. They are the principal steward of nationally significant public spaces and buildings, including the Capital’s six “official residences.” Residences such as 24 Sussex Drive.
  3. And they are a “creative partner” on initiatives that tie into both development and conservation.

  To this end, the NCC is now working on a Plan for Canada’s Capital, 2017-2067. This is a 50-year plan that will outline what they do with federal lands, buildings, parks and other symbolic spaces in the Capital. And it will identity which projects would best craft and represent our national identity, as well as strengthen Canada’s influence in the world.

  This is all pretty important and interesting stuff. But unfortunately I didn’t know it was underway. And I also didn’t know what they were looking for “big ideas” from Canadians. These are ideas that will directly shape the 50-year plan.

  So if you have an idea – big or small – for the National Capital Commission, I would encourage you to click here and share it with them. Not only is this city building in the Capital, it’s also nation building.

  Please also feel free to copy and paste your idea(s) in the comment section of this post. These ideas definitely deserve a fulsome discussion. I will post mine once I write it.

  2016.01.17