Tag: stanford

• Google Maps for the Roman Empire

  Okay, this is neat. Stanford has created what is effectively Google Maps for the Roman Empire.

  

  What it shows you is the principal routes of the Roman World: the road network, the main navigable rivers, and the hundreds of sea routes that crossed the Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and the coastal Atlantic.

  The tool then attaches both time and expense to these routes (which would have been used for the transportation of goods and people, but also for general communication across the Roman Empire).

  So if, for example, you are curious about how many days and how many denarii it would have cost you to deliver an important dinner invitation from Roma to Alexandria during the summer months of antiquity, you now have an online tool. It’s about 14 days.

  2022.07.05

• Floodplain homes in the US are overvalued by a total of $34 billion

  This recent paper by Miyuki Hino (University of North Carolina) and Marshall Burke (Stanford) makes the case that US homes situated within floodplains are currently overvalued by a total of $34 billion. And that’s because the associated risks are not being properly accounted for in the value of these homes.

  The problem, it would seem, comes down to information. Because the discount for flood risk was found to be higher (1) for commercial buyers (presumably because they’re more sophisticated and/or have better access to information) and (2) in states where sellers must disclose flood risk (Louisiana is probably the most stringent about this).

  This feels a bit like one of those realtor commercials that tries to scare you into using one. But it does appear to demonstrate just how opaque the market can be and how information asymmetries potentially distort asset prices. Perhaps most importantly, I wonder when climate risk will get fully valued.

  2020.03.02

• Software developers are half of the homebuyers in San Francisco

  A couple of months ago I wrote about the relationship between IPOs and home prices. It was in response to the current wave of tech companies — most of which are headquartered in San Francisco — that have gone public or are expected to go public this year (2019). What impact will this have on the city’s housing market?

  I cited this academic study on the topic, which already discovered a “positive and significant association between local house price changes and firms going public.” But today I stumbled upon another interesting study by a San Francisco real estate agent, name Deniz Kahramaner, who happens to also be a Stanford-trained data scientist.

  What Kahramaner wanted to figure out was, who tends to buy residential real estate in San Francisco?

  So he started with title data and then scraped the internet to try and match up individual buyer names with specific companies and industries. Since not everyone has some sort of public profile and because real estate is sometimes held within a company, he was only able to traceback about 55% of home purchases in San Francisco last year.

  Still, the data looks pretty clear. About half of the homes bought in 2018 were by individuals whose employment has roots in “software.” The next biggest buyer segment was “finance.”

  

  The other interesting thing about this data set is that it shows where people have been buying (at least last year). Historically, the north end of the city has been the wealthiest, but the above data shows things moving in a southeasterly direction. Though, it remains to be seen what all of this will look like when the dust settles after this current crop of tech IPOs.

  Chart: The Atlantic

  2019.06.09

• Winner take all

  We have talked a lot on this blog about the concentration of economic activity in global cities. Here is an old post about a paper called “winner-take-all-cities”, which documents the overrepresentation of talent, economic activity, innovation, and wealth creation in a select number of alpha cities.

  But this same phenomenon is playing out in a myriad of different ways. Aaron Renn calls this the “superstar effect” and has been writing about it for years. Another more recent example is this post by Richard Kerby called: Where did you go to school?

  Kerby looked at where venture capitalists in the US went to school and discovered that around 40% of them have gone to one of two schools: Stanford or Harvard. His argument is that not only is the venture capital industry lacking in gender and racial diversity, but it’s also lacking in cognitive diversity.

  My point with this post, though, is one of hyper-concentration. Tech is a dominant force in today’s economy. And in 2017, nearly 45% of all venture capital investment in the US went to companies located in the Bay Area – meaning San Francisco and San Jose.

  So here is an example of a select number of schools training a select number of minds that then go on to invest in a select number of cities. Fred Wilson, who is a venture capitalist, has a good response to this problem of diversity in the VC industry.

  But, of course, this is bigger than just the VC business.

  2018.08.10

• Don’t fall off the “humor cliff”

  Some of the most successful people I have ever met in business are also some of the funniest people I have ever met. This, of course, isn’t universally true. But I don’t think it’s pure coincidence. These are people you want to be around and do business with. 

  There’s lots of research out there to suggest that humor is an incredible way to build relationships and strengthen workplace cultures. Joel Stein recently penned an article about this at Stanford Business called Humor Is Serious Business. Naturally the article itself is also funny. Here is an excerpt:

  “The reason humor works as a bridge (just go with it) is that laughter sparks the release of oxytocin, a hormone that facilitates social bonding, increases trust, and quickens self-disclosure. This is key in a workplace since all the other ways to release oxytocin are no longer permitted by Human Resources. In a 2015 study, psychologists Alan Gray, Brian Parkinson, and Robin Dunbar had participants watch either a funny or neutral video clip before engaging in a self-disclosure exercise with a stranger: People who watched the funny clip revealed 30% more personal information relative to those who watched the neutral clip.”

  The article goes on to talk about how humor at the negotiating table can lead to increased concessions and how, if you’re in a senior position and you make fun of yourself, people tend to assume you’re highly confident in your abilities. It also humanizes you.

  One of the interesting things about this topic is that, according to research by Stanford professor Jennifer Aaker and lecturer Naomi Bagdonas, most of us fall off a “humor cliff” when we enter the workforce. That’s roughly the moment where we start laughing less and finding stuff less funny.

  We shouldn’t let that happen and I’m going to make a concerted effort. Not just because of business, but because laughter is good for you.

  2017.08.05

• The secret algorithm one VC firm uses to pick entrepreneurs

  Every VC firm has its own way of evaluating potential investments. Remmy Oxley, an anonymous VC, says that Moneyball-style methods are the next step, and reveals his firm’s algorithm for screening candidates.

  The secret algorithm one VC firm uses to pick entrepreneurs

  2013.08.15