Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

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Tag: ethereum

  • Money, identity, and ownership

    For those of you who are interested in crypto (and for those of you who aren’t but are open-minded), Vitalik has just published this post talking about what in the Ethereum application ecosystem currently excites him. A lot of it is pretty technical, but the 5 overarching categories he talks about are: (1) money, (2) decentralized finance, (3) identity, (4) decentralized autonomous organizations, and (5) hybrid applications.

    Money has always been considered the first and most important application of crypto. But there is no shortage of people who will tell you that it’ll never work and that fiat currencies backed by a government will always be superior. Today I already think the answer is: it depends. So lately, I have been responding to this comment by asking: Would you rather own the Argentine Peso or would you rather own someting like ETH?

    Here’s how Vitalik talks about this same point:

    When I first visited Argentina in December last year, one of the experiences I remember well was walking around on Christmas Day, when almost everything is closed, looking for a coffee shop. After passing by about five closed ones, we finally found one that was open. When we walked in, the owner recognized me, and immediately showed me that he has ETH and other crypto-assets on his Binance account. We ordered tea and snacks, and we asked if we could pay in ETH. The coffee shop owner obliged, and showed me the QR code for his Binance deposit address, to which I sent about $20 of ETH from my Status wallet on my phone.

    This was far from the most meaningful use of cryptocurrency that is taking place in the country. Others are using it to save money, transfer money internationally, make payments for large and important transactions, and much more. But even still, the fact that I randomly found a coffee shop and it happened to accept cryptocurrency showed the sheer reach of adoption. Unlike wealthy countries like the United States, where financial transactions are easy to make and 8% inflation is considered extreme, in Argentina and many other countries around the world, links to global financial systems are more limited and extreme inflation is a reality every day. Cryptocurrency often steps in as a lifeline.

    The other category that I find very interesting is that of identity. And it relates to a post that Fred Wilson also happened to share today where he talks about the importance of identity and the coming need for us to start cryptographically signing everything. In my mind, what this comes down to is proving things like who is who, who is doing what, and who owns what.

    This may sound counterintuitive since crypto is often held up by the media as a way to obfuscate identity and conceal nefarious activities. But the thing is, as soon as you link a real human to a blockchain, you can now have identity and ownership records that are institution-independent and fully interoperable. One use case that immediately comes to mind is property deeds, which is of course already being done in some places.

    For Vitalik’s full post, click here.

  • Bright Moments should come to Toronto

    I love what Bright Moments is doing. And Fred Wilson’s post this morning — about their latest event in Mexico City — reminded me of that.

    Bright Moments describes themselves as “an NFT art collective on a mission to create environments where artists and collectors witness the birth of generative art together.”

    What this means is that they are working to move the experience of NFT art away from individual computer screens toward physical events where the art can be consumed and also created (i.e. minted) in a group setting.

    For a taste of what this actually means, check out their website and then hang out for a bit with their homepage video.

    So far they have hosted an event in the following 5 cities: Venice Beach (okay, actually a neighborhood), New York, Berlin, London, and Mexico City. And at each stop on their tour of what will be 10 places, they have done an in-person minting of their official collection, called CryptoCitizens.

    I haven’t been to one of them, but I can see how it would be a lot of fun and how it might change your perception of NFTs. So I am hoping that for one of their last 4 stops (the first stop was in the “Galaxy”), they’ll come to Toronto. Ethereum was pretty much created in this city, so I think it only makes sense for there to be Toronto CryptoCitizens.

    If you too would like to see this happen, make sure you tweet at Bright Moments and tell them that they should come to the greatest city in the world.

  • Real estate marketplaces are not like NFT marketplaces

    A lot less people are buying NFTs today compared to last year. But that’s okay, everything will be fine. So let’s talk about some of the characteristics of NFT marketplaces and how they differ from real estate marketplaces today:

    • When you create or “mint” an NFT, you are doing so on a particular blockchain, such as on the Ethereum blockchain. You might do that minting through a marketplace like OpenSea, but at the end of the day, your NFT now lives on a public blockchain and not on private OpenSea.
    • What that means is that if OpenSea suddenly decides to do something bad that you don’t like (I am in no way picking on OpenSea), you can simply stop using them and just access and trade your NFTs from some other marketplace. As I understand it, there are also lots of smart people working on blockchain interoperability.
    • Once you have your NFT on a blockchain, you can choose, through various applications, to list it for sale, run auctions with a reserve price, or just hold it and do nothing, among other things. You can also set it up so that any proceeds from a future sale are automatically split with someone else — maybe they are a co-creator of the NFT that you minted.
    • Whether you’ve decided to list your NFT for sale or not, there is also the option for the market to make unsolicited offers on it. It is up to you whether or not you’d like to accept any of the offers, but in all cases the offers you receive are made fully public to the market. As a bidder, it’s easy to hide behind “burner” wallets, but you generally can’t hide real intent.
    • If/when you do sell, that sale becomes public record for all to see. The blockchain never forgets and it doesn’t matter which marketplace you decide to use.

    In some real estate markets, it’s fairly easy to see the sales history of a property. But in other markets, such as here in Toronto, it’s still fairly gated. Generally speaking, you are accessing a controlled database and so you need to abide by whatever rules might be in place. If you want to build a new application on top of your local real estate board’s database, that is going to be tricky and it will likely involve more than a few lawyers.

    It is, however, fun to imagine how this might all change with public blockchains. And I think that NFT marketplaces do offer some clues in terms of what could happen to our real estate markets.

    Consider this potentially unexpected scenario:

    In the world of NFTs, there is something known as creator royalties. And they function just as you might expect. As the creator of an NFT, you can set a royalty % that gets paid to you each and every time the NFT is sold. And because the blockchain never forgets, you never have to worry about enforcing and collecting your royalty fee. It just gets automatically distributed.

    Now imagine a world where people like the architect and the developer of a new property are able to attach their own creator royalties. This would be massively cumbersome to administer today, but it’s entirely straightforward once you’ve got everything on a blockchain. And it would be a huge boon for business models that today do not benefit from reoccurring revenues.

    In theory, it might also better align interests, because if you’re a “creator” who wants a good solid royalty fee stream, maybe you’re a little more motivated to do good long-term work. Who knows? This model might never actually happen, but I do think it is indicative of the kind of changes and innovations that we might see as crypto continues to filter through the economy.

  • State of Crypto

    Everybody wishes that they bought companies like Amazon way back when they first went public, and then held them until today. If you did that, you would of course now be rich. But what would you have had to deal with along the way?

    Well, for one, you would have had to stomach an 80% decline in its share price when the dot-com bubble burst. And so while hindsight is always 20-20, do you really think that, faced with this cliff, you would have held on, not freaked out, and not sold? Yeah, who knows.

    Moving to today and the crypto space, the price of Ether is down 51% over the last 6 months. That’s not quite 80%, but 51% is still a big number, especially if you dumped all of your savings into it and/or borrowed money to do so.

    But does this decline really mean that crypto is rat poison?

    Last year when the market cap of crypto was rising, I believed that crypto had the potential to become the next big thing for the internet. And I still believe that today, which is why I continue to dollar cost average and why I continue to collect NFTs that I like.

    I may be wrong with the conviction I have (and this post will serve as permanent evidence of it), but it’s what I believe. And my conviction doesn’t depend on today’s price. It depends on what I think it could happen with crypto in the next 10 years.

    So with that, here is an interesting “State of Crypto” report that venture firm a16z just published. I think the key message here is that this is a longtime coming. And while it is still early days, momentum continues to grow. But of course, you should decide for yourself what you believe.

  • Right-click, save as — world’s first Bored Ape restaurant opens in Long Beach

    The common criticism with NFT art is that it’s just a JPEG image. So why bother “owning” it when you can just right-click, save as? Who in their right mind would spend thousands, let alone hundreds of thousands on such a thing?

    But as I’ve argued before, this is missing the bigger picture and missing what this new technology has the potential to empower. Take for example, the new Bored & Hungry restaurant that opened up in Long Beach, California this past weekend (with lines down the block).

    It is being dubbed the world’s first Bored Ape Yacht Club restaurant, and here’s the backstory. Andy Nguyen is a successful food entrepreneur in southern California. And last month he spent US$267,000 on Bored Ape #6184 (yes, a JPEG).

    After doing this, he took to Twitter and asked: “Worst decision I’ve ever made or best idea of all time?” Of course, he clearly had a new business idea in mind.

    Fast forward to today and he now has a pop-up restaurant concept that is branded with his Bored Ape. And because the Bored Ape IP is very permissive, he is perfectly within his rights to do this. He can create whatever business he wants on the shoulders of his NFT, as can others with theirs.

    His restaurant is also accepting the new ApeCoin that is part of this NFT community, and if you yourself have a Bored Ape, you qualify for perks like free food. All you have to do is scan your crypto wallet. Digital asset ownership = real-life something.

    This to me is just one small example of the kind of new businesses that crypto and other digital assets might unlock. And I am sure that it’s the tip of the iceberg.

  • Who cares if there’s an NFT bubble?

    The Financial Times recently reported on “the great NFT sell-off” here in this article. Daily trading volumes on OpenSea, which is the largest NFT marketplace, are down 80% ($50M) from their high in February ($248M). Bored Ape Yacht Club, which is the most expensive NFT collection out there, has seen its average daily price come down by about a third (see above). Of course, they still remain extremely valuable NFTs. And a recent CryptoPunks auction was just pulled from Sotheby’s so that the owner could “HODL” until things recover.

    I don’t think any of this should surprise both NFT holders and the naysayers. This is a high-risk space and it is all very speculative. You can’t run a discounted cash flow (DCF) model on a Bored Ape and most other NFTs (though some might actually produce cash flow through, for example, secondary sale royalties). The more important point of all of this is that we are living through what many people believe is the creation of a new kind of internet. Cryptocurrencies are what underpin these new digital economies, but we are still figuring out how they will function and what their long-term business models will be.

    For me, this is an exciting thing to be a part of. I’m not a venture capitalist, but buying NFTs and doing other crypto things feels a bit like I am an amateur one. Holding ETH or SOL is similar to holding Canadian or US dollars (currencies that underpin economies). So what I am doing is using these currencies to put money into ventures (NFTs) that seem interesting. And to do that, you look at the art, the team behind the project, the roadmap, and how well they appear to be executing against that plan. Indeed, many of the most successful NFT projects are naturally run by teams who are constantly building and shipping.

    At the same time, I mentally write off every NFT I buy to $0 as soon as I purchase it. I am also limiting my total crypto allocation to between 5-10% of my non-real estate investments and buying with a scheduled dollar-cost averaging approach. So if this whole web3 thing went to zero tomorrow (which I firmly do not believe will be the case), my life would still go on. None of this is, of course, investment advice. Please do your own research and make your own decisions. But I can tell you that it is a lot of fun following and learning about what smart, creative, and entrepreneurial people are doing in this emerging space.

    If you’re interested in NFT photography, check out my global citizen collection on Foundation.

    Chart: Financial Times

  • Be a global citizen — my new NFT photography collection

    I have enjoyed photography for as long as I can remember. But I got into it in earnest during undergrad while studying architecture. At that time, Toronto-based photographer Sam Javanrouh was in the early days of running his decade-long photoblog called daily dose of imagery. And I remember checking it religiously to see his captures of the city. This was a fairly novel medium for photos at the time. Instagram wouldn’t arrive for another 7 or so years. So I found it deeply inspiring.

    So much so that I went over to Henry’s at the corner of Queen and Church, bought a refurbished Canon Rebel, and started capturing my own photos of Toronto — often at night after school. I’m positive that I’d be embarrassed if I ever pulled out those old photos from the archives, but regardless, photography more or less stuck with me as a hobby. It also formed an integral part of the design portfolio that I used to get into graduate architecture school. (My photos proved to be less useful for business school.)

    I later moved onto shooting with Fujifilm cameras (currently a Fujifilm X-T3). And nowadays I mostly shoot when I’m traveling and have some free time. But two decades after buying that refurbed Rebel, I can’t help but feel like we are at yet another important turning point in the evolution of photography (and, of course, art more broadly). We now have tools and technologies that allow for the ownership of digital assets. (See non-fungible tokens.)

    So I have decided to start minting and making my photography available for sale on Foundation. The first collection is called “Be a global citizen”, and the plan is to slowly add my photography from around the world to it. The floor price is currently set at 0.25 ETH. And all of the photos were taken on my Fujifilm X-T3. I hope you like it. To check out the collection, click here.

  • Buying condos with crypto

    If you happen to have made boatloads of money in crypto (which sadly isn’t me), one sensible thing you could do is put some of that money into luxury residential real estate. You know, to diversify your portfolio.

    According to this recent WSJ article, it is already happening, with some developers and some homeowners now accepting cryptocurrencies in lieu of US dollars and other fiat currencies. This is helpful if you’ve managed to accumulate a bunch of crypto and don’t want to convert it. It can also be easier when it comes to moving the funds around:

    Avi Dabir, vice president of business development at FTX US, said he sees real estate as a growing sector for the company because crypto transactions are faster and more efficient than traditional deals, which rely on an often-cumbersome banking system.“If I want to send a wire transfer today using my traditional bank account, it’s got to be banking hours, I need to make sure I hit that wire cutoff time and I can’t do it on the weekends,” he said. “That’s not a problem with cryptocurrency. It’s open 24/7.”

    But of course it is still early days for crypto. The article suggests that most developers and owners are arranging for any crypto received to be immediately converted into US dollars at closing. This is presumably because of how volatile cryptocurrencies tend to be — at least right now.

    To accept crypto, PMG had to partner with a regulated exchange that could quickly convert crypto to U.S. dollars, then convince an escrow agent to accept down payments from the exchange, rather than directly from the developer. Mr. Shear said most escrow agents looked at him like he was crazy, but “20 lawyers, one year later, and a lot of brain damage, everybody got comfortable.”

    There are also tax considerations (that I am really not an expert on). If you bought $100 worth of Ethereum and it is now worth $10 million, you are responsible for paying tax on this gain if/when you sell, trade, or otherwise dispose of the crypto. And it is my understanding that if you were to use this $10 million in Ethereum to buy something like a condo in Miami, it would also be considered a taxable event.

    Maybe all of this becomes commonplace or maybe it doesn’t. But it sure is interesting to see crypto already starting to flow into hard assets like real estate.

  • My predictions for 2022

    As promised, below is a list of some of my predictions for this coming year. I have tried to be both punchier and more precise in my prognostications; because, well, obvious predictions are boring and precision will allow me to better evaluate my thinking at the end of the year. So here goes.

    1. 2022 will be the year that COVID-19 becomes endemic and finally fizzles out to a point where it no longer factors into our decision making in the same way that it has for most people over the last two years or so. I think this will happen by as early as the summer.
    2. As a result, I think the majority of people will be back in their offices by this September at the very latest, with many coming back much earlier. The whole hybrid/flexible work thing won’t completely disappear, but the majority of people who used to work in offices will be back.
    3. Recreational/fringe residential real estate will soften in 2022 as a result of 1) its tremendous run-up during this pandemic and 2) the renewed pull of urban/office life. Conversely, urban apartment rents will continue to rise and eventually surpass their pre-COVID levels. The SF Bay Area could be one exception.
    4. The explosion of travel that I thought was going to happen in 2021, will truly happen this year. The summer will mark its official return, with European travel volumes (to give just one example) returning to their pre-COVID levels.
    5. We will see meaningful efforts to further breakdown the hegemony of single-family zoning throughout many North American cities. This has been building for a number of years and I think we will see some tipping point-like moments in 2022. Specifically, expanded permissions for multi-unit housing and greater densities.
    6. I wish I could say that autonomous vehicles are destined to do something truly remarkable this year, but I think we are still a few years out (2024-2025?) before a large chunk of us are ride-hailing AVs. But on a related note, I do think that Uber will come into its own this year and finally become profitable (and not just with adjusted profits).
    7. Public transit ridership will, unfortunately, remain depressed and below its pre-COVID levels for this entire year. The beneficiaries of this will continue to be cars (not good), bikes, and micro-mobility solutions like e-scooters.
    8. 2021 was a huge year for NFTs and other fun stuff like digital fashion. Given these trends, I believe there will be growing demand from people to better integrate their digital and physical lives through technologies like augmented reality. Snap has been at the forefront of this space for many years and 2022 will be an important year for its Spectacles (AR glasses). But Apple and others will also make major announcements.
    9. Miami’s ascent as an important tech hub will get interrupted by questions surrounding the climate crisis and its own resilience. At the time of writing this post, the price of carbon on the EU’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is about €80 per tonne. I think we will see it break €125 per tonne this year, and possibly go even higher.
    10. Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Solana (in this order) will be the top three cryptocurrencies according to market cap by the end of the year. At the time of writing this post, their market caps are $446 billion, $895 billion, and $55 billion, respectively. I am also expecting some breakout web3 consumer applications that will push, maybe, 40% of Canadians and Americans into the crypto space.

    Photo by Dave Xu on Unsplash

  • Crypto energy consumption

    One of the main criticisms of cryptocurrencies is that they consume a lot of energy and are therefore not sustainable. But all blockchains are not created equal and there are different ways in which transactions on a blockchain can be validated.

    Bitcoin and Ethereum use something known as “proof of work” (though Ethereum plans to change this sometime next year). This method of validation does indeed use quite a bit of energy.

    But another way to validate and maintain security on a network is through something known as “proof of stake.” This is what Solana and many other blockchains are now using. Put differently, there’s no “mining” required, which is the work that is so energy intensive.

    To demonstrate the difference, the Solana Foundation recently published this comparison chart:

    To try and further put this into context, the entire Solana network is currently doing about 20 million transactions per year. Right now, they are claiming that this is equivalent to the electricity usage of about 986 American households.

    If you’d like to take a look at the footnotes, click here.