Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

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Tag: condo sales

  • Closing risk

    Urbanation is forecasting that approximately 27,000 condominium suites will finish construction and be ready for occupancy this year in the Greater Toronto Area. This is some sort of a record, and is naturally the result of record pre-construction sales over the last cycle.

    This number is going to come down given that construction starts are declining, but before that, these suites will need to get absorbed into the market. And that’s why I think that one of the biggest risks for our industry this year is going to be closing risk.

    In other words, you’ve got the pre-sales, but will the purchasers actually show up and close on their homes?

    It is for this exact reason that most/all construction lenders want to see pre-construction purchasers pay at least 10% in deposits before they’ll advance their loan. It is also why the most risk-averse developers won’t start construction until they have even more than 10% sitting in trust. The more hard money a purchaser has paid, the more likely they are to close.

    It can be easy to forget this when the market is on fire and you’re more preoccupied with holding back inventory because you think that sale prices will be higher in the future. But it’s prudent to remember these times. They are a naturally occurring part of real estate cycles.

    The most risk adverse execution strategies will likely leave some money on the table in the best of times. You won’t be profit maximizing. However, they’ll leave you more protected in the worst of times. That’s how risk and reward work.

  • Corktown Condos to launch sales this spring

    Earlier this week, I shared this image of Corktown Condos on my Instagram. It represents the first phase of Slate’s two-phase project in Hamilton, and I’m excited to announce that we’ll be launching sales this spring (both in Hamilton and in Toronto).

    We love Hamilton. It has walkability, transit, a wonderful stock of old buildings, and a dynamic and growing cultural scene. In other words, it has all of the characteristics that we look for when it comes to new projects. And here, our approach to city building is exactly analogous to what we did in Toronto at Yonge & St. Clair.

    Those of you who are familiar with our work will know that Slate owns 8 office buildings in midtown, including all four corners of the Yonge & St. Clair intersection. And that we have spent the last decade investing in these buildings, investing in the public realm, investing in public art, and working to support businesses in the area. Then in 2021, we launched sales on a landmark condominium tower called One Delisle that is now under construction.

    Here in Hamilton, we are similarly investing in economic development and in housing. Last year, it was announced that we acquired approximately 800 acres of industrial land and buildings on Hamilton’s waterfront. This site alone has the potential to create up to 23,000 new jobs across the region and inject up to $3.8 billion into Ontario’s economy. It will likely also take some time and be measured in decades.

    We prefer to think of ourselves as city builders. And that means taking a long-term view and thinking about the broader city — not just about our individual projects. So for us, Corktown is part of a much larger and longer-term commitment to the City of Hamilton. And we couldn’t be more excited to share it with all of you in the coming weeks.

    Stay tuned. And if you’d like to register for Corktown, you can do that over here.

  • On not going pens down

    Back in May, I wrote a post about time to market and managing costs in condominium projects. What I wrote then remains true and equally, if not more, important today. But given all the uncertainty that we are continuing to see in the market, I thought I would elaborate on a few points.

    It used to be the case, when I first started working on condominium projects back in 2007 or so, that you would go pens down on your design drawings while you launched pre-sales and worked toward meeting your construction financing requirements.

    Once you hit 50% sales, or maybe once you completely reached your financing hurdle, you would then call your architect back up and kindly ask them to get started on working drawings.

    And the reason you did it this way was because working drawings are kind of expensive and so you wanted to make sure that your sales were going to be there. You were also trying to push as many of your costs out to after you had your construction loan in place so that you had a lower peak equity requirement.

    You can’t do this today.

    Since the beginning of this year, we have seen average high-rise construction costs increase by about 12% in the Greater Toronto Area and, for the balance of this year, some are predicting as much as 4% per month. What this means is that if you wait like the old days, you will likely see costs run away from you and you won’t be able to finance your project based on the sales you do have in place.

    So what you want to do is not go pens down. Keep going on drawings. Start buying construction (i.e. tendering). And work toward locking in as many of your costs as possible.

    How much is ultimately up to you and the exact market conditions at the time. But I know a number of condominium developers now targeting at least 50% tendered, which means securing most of your key contracts: formwork, concrete & rebar supply, windows, M&E, and so on.

    A lot of us are hoping that costs will eventually come down and follow certain commodities in the near term. But as our cost consultant effectively said to me this week, “just because the price of cold-formed steel has come down, do you really think you’ll be able to walk into a BMW dealership and ask for a deep discount?”

  • Urbanation releases Q3-2020 market update — new condo sales reach record high

    Urbanation just released its Q3-2020 market update for the Greater Toronto Area and the data is very encouraging for the new condo market. Here are some of the highlights:

    • There were 6,730 new condominium unit sales in Q3. This represents a 30% year-over-year increase.
    • More of this growth happened in the suburbs (905) with 3,834 units sales vs. 2,536 unit sales in the City of Toronto (416).
    • Of the 6,694 units that launched for sale in Q3, about 3/4 of them sold. This is the highest absorption rate since Q4-2017.
    • The average selling price for a new condo launched in Q3 was $1,044 psf (GTA average). This is up 3.5% compared to last year.
    • New launches in the suburbs sold for an average of $915 psf. New launches in the City of Toronto sold for an average of $1,275 psf.

    I reckon that many of the people purchasing right now are looking through and to the other side of this current macro environment. They recognize that things will get better and that the Toronto region will continue to thrive. That’s certainly how I’m thinking about it.

    For the full Urbanation news release, click here.

    Photo by Warren Wong on Unsplash

  • Aman New York’s $180 million penthouse

    This morning I was reading about Aman’s new condo and hotel project in New York, which is planned for the 100-year-old Crown Building at 730 Fifth Avenue. It will have 83 hotel rooms and just 22 homes, and be the first urban condominium for the resort company.

    Owned by OKO Group, the hospitality company is mostly known for their “sleek, minimalist hotels in secluded, far-flung destinations,” according to the WSJ. Rooms go for upwards of USD 2,500 per night and they, supposedly, have a rabid customer base known as “Amanjunkies.”

    What’s interesting about this project is that (among other things) it’s a bet the Aman brand will translate to an urban context and drive above-market pricing. And it will do it at a time when the ultra high-net-worth segment of the market in NYC has been cooling because of a new “mansion tax” and probably other factors.

    The five-storey penthouse, which will be built into the building’s “crown,” is asking USD 180 million. If/when it sells, it will break the record for the most expensive home ever sold in the city on a square foot basis at $14,358 psf.

    If you subscribe to the WSJ, you can read the full story here. I find it valuable to see how projects position themselves.

    Rendering: Aman

  • A video and some art

    We made a video for our Junction House project. If you can’t see it embedded below, click here. You may have already seen some of the cut-downs on my socials, but this is the full version.

    [vimeo 293178524 w=640 h=300]

    The stickers under our projecting Junction House sign box irk me, but otherwise we’re all really happy with the way the video turned out. We wanted it to feel real and authentic.

    I am also thrilled to announce that we have partnered with a few local artists for this project. 

    The first is Leeay Aikawa. She is a multidisciplinary artist who moved to Toronto from Japan in 2003 and now works and resides in the Junction. We’re excited to have the opportunity to exhibit her work. You’ll find it in our “sales gallery” when that space opens.

    The next artist will remain a secret for now (though that’s a hint). Stay tuned to the blog and the socials.

  • Unzipped wall on King Street West

    image

    Last night I checked out the Unzipped Toronto exhibition, which is the relocated Serpentine Pavilion (pictured above) that was designed by Bjarke Ingels Group in 2016. 

    It was initially housed in Hyde Park London, but it’s now on King Street West Toronto. Westbank purchased the “unzipped wall” after it was installed in London and supposedly it will eventually find a permanent home in Vancouver.

    The official opening of Unzipped Toronto is September 15th, 2018. It will be free and open to the public. If you’d like to get a complimentary ticket, you can do that here. 

    The timing of all this lines up with condo sales for Bjarke Ingels’ first project in Toronto. I believe that will be starting this fall. And I am sure they will end up setting some new records for the King West submarket.

  • 2720 Dundas Street West

    If you’ve been in the Junction lately, you have probably noticed some activity at the location of our proposed Junction House. Here is a photo that I took this morning of 2720 Dundas Street West. (Sidebar: What an absolutely gorgeous summer day in Toronto.)

    image

    We’re giving the front a coat of fresh white to mark the beginning of the registration phase. Pretty soon you’ll be able to leave your name with us so that we can send you insightful emails and get in touch with you when condo sales begin. 

    At some point 2720 will become home to the Junction House sales office (maybe we’ll even call it something pretentious like a presentation gallery). But that point is not right now. 

    I can, however, tell you that in addition to superkül (architecture), we are working with Paul Johnston / Unique Urban Homes (sales), Dialogue 38 (interior design), and Vanderbrand (creative agency). 

    I am also personally spending a lot of time obsessing over kitchen details and other minutia. I think Charles Eames once said, “The details are not the details. They make the design.”

    If you’d like to be kept in the loop on Junction House, you can follow Slate Developments (nascent account), the Globizen Group, and myself on Instagram. And of course, you’ll also hear all about it on the blog. Have a great weekend friends.