Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

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Tag: blockchain

  • Crypto is really hard to explain, but things are happening

    I was at a dinner recently where the topic of crypto came up. Only two of us at the table were full-on believers, and the rest were generally sceptics. So naturally, the two of us started talking about why we think crypto is important. But in moments like this, it always becomes immediately clear that crypto is really hard to explain in a succinct and compelling way. Like, I don’t know how to do it. Thankfully, venture firm a16z just released their latest State of Crypto report, and so here are a handful of interesting takeaways.

    The number of crypto addresses continues to grow. Currently it’s at an all-time high of approximately 220 million, which roughly mirrors the adoption curve of the internet back in the 90s (log scale). It is, however, important to note that one crypto address does not necessarily correspond to one human being. For example, I have many different crypto addresses. So if you dig a little deeper, you’ll see that their net estimate is somewhere between 30-60 million real human beings transacting using crypto every month. This is the estimated active user base and it continues to grow.

    The number of mobile crypto wallet users is also growing rapidly outside of the US, namely in countries like Nigeria, India, and Argentina. This is the result of a number of factors: population growth, mobile phone adoption, government support, inflation, and many others. I mean, since 2010, the Argentine Peso has lost basically 99% of its value against the USD. So of course you’d rather put your money somewhere else, such as in stablecoins.

    Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that have their value pegged to something else, such as a fiat currency. Today, they are one of the most popular crypto products and virtually all of them (more than 99%) are pegged to the USD dollar. This is viewed by some as an opportunity to strengthen the dominance of the US dollar at a time when it’s waning (see above). But more importantly, stablecoins already serve two important functions in the market: one, it’s as stable as the US dollar; and two, the cost of sending a stablecoin anywhere in the world is now basically free. Say goodbye to bank wire transfers.

    It’s worth reiterating that a16z is a venture capital firm that is heavily invested in the crypto space. And so reports like this are naturally a form of marketing and a form of lobbying. Still, there’s a lot of great information in here that you can use to form your own opinions about the sector. It may not be succinct, but if you take the time, I think you’ll find it compelling.

  • An Ethereum story

    We’ve spoken about Vitalik Buterin before.

    He is the inventor of the Ethereum blockchain, and its most prominent figure. He also happens to have grown up in Toronto. He went to the University of Waterloo. So when I wrote this post back in 2021, I asked: Why the hell is nobody talking about this? Why are we not celebrating the fact that our great city helped birth one of the most important technologies of our time? You couldn’t ask for a better economic development story. Well, I guess the answer is twofold. Crypto isn’t mainstream. Even back in 2021 when things were frothy it wasn’t. And, we’re awful at promoting and driving a global brand for our city. Both of these things need to change. So if you’re interested in learning more about Vitalik and Ethereum, you should check out this new movie (trailer) called Vitalik: An Ethereum Story. To watch it, go to ethereumfilm.xyz and mint the NFT for $20. You’ll then be able to stream it. I haven’t done this yet, but I’ll be doing it very soon. All of the proceeds from the NFT sales will go toward getting a more mainstream distribution deal.

    So by watching, you’re helping.

    Update: I watched it. It’s great.

  • I finally tried Apple Vision Pro

    I know I’m late to the party on this, but I finally tried Apple Vision Pro this weekend. I was in the Apple Store at the Toronto Eaton Center getting the battery replaced in my phone, so I decided to do a demo. And let me tell you — I was totally blown away. I messaged everyone I knew (after I got my phone back) and told them that they need to try it.

    To be clear, though, very few people right now want to actually buy this computing device. Initially, Apple was thinking that it would sell upwards of 800,000 units this year. But now it expects to sell somewhere closer to 400,000. Maybe. The device is too expensive, too bulky, and the use cases just aren’t there for someone to feel they need to buy it.

    I also found that, when I was looking at the world around me, I could tell I was looking at a video. It wasn’t exactly perfect. (Vision Pro creates a mixed-reality experience by recording the world around you and then playing it back to you.) But that’s okay. The hardware will get better. The price will come down. And the developer community will build a bunch of killer apps that nobody has even thought of yet.

    None of this changes the fact that the device is still an astonishing technical achievement. The eye tracking works perfectly. All of my hand gestures were flawlessly picked up. And the overall experience was entirely immersive — from 3D videos (recorded on regular iPhones) to a butterfly landing on my hand and a velociraptor flaring its nostrils right in front of me.

    What was most impactful to me is that I could easily imagine a future where all of this works. Is this a more exciting way to watch sports? Yes. I sat courtside and Lebron dunked in my face. Is this a better way to watch movies on a plane? By far. Will this be used to help build buildings and coordinate design & engineering disciplines? Yes, absolutely, among many other things.

    It is also easy to imagine how spatial computing is likely to dovetail with other innovations such as AI and blockchains. Mixed-reality or extended reality blurs the line between physical and digital. And in my mind, AI becomes the way in which we will want to interact with this new computing world. (It’s not easy to type on a virtual keyboard.)

    At the same time, digital artifacts will come to be viewed much differently when they’re all blended in. An NFT sitting in a cold wallet is going to feel a lot different than an NFT hanging in a fully immersive 3D gallery that is viewed by millions of people. This strengthens the case for blockchains, and the ownership of digital objects, products, and services.

    Maybe this is really far into the future. I don’t know. But regardless, if you haven’t already, I would encourage you to book a demo at your local Apple Store. However cool and great you think it will be, it will be better. I’m not suggesting you should buy one, but I am suggesting that you need to try it out and see a glimpse into the future.

    And if any of you are working on Apple Vision Pro software that is somehow connected to the design and construction industry, I would love to hear from you and learn more about what you’re up to. I have complete conviction that this will form the future of our industry. The best place to reach out is here.

  • Be your own bitch

    I just joined Warpcast. You can find my profile, here.

    At first glance, Warpcast is going to look a lot like X. But instead of tweets, you cast. There are also various topic channels, similar to how Reddit works. But the most important difference is that Warpcast is a client for the Farcaster protocol, which is a social network built on Ethereum. This means that it is a decentralized social network.

    You won’t see of any this if you decide to sign up. All of the esoteric crypto things are hidden in the background. But it’s there. And it ultimately means that, as a user, you get to own your online identity and whatever content and following you create. Meaning, you can take it with you if you decide you no longer want to use Warpcast and instead want to access the network through another client.

    It also means that software developers now have a real incentive to build things on top of the protocol, because unlike with a centralized service like X, they can be confident that they won’t get the rug pulled out from underneath them. And herein lies the feature that will ultimately lead to an enormous amount of new ideas and innovation.

    In real estate terms, you can think of developing on top of a centralized service like building within a theme park owned by a single company. The theme park might want you to build on their land, right now, but if at some point it no longer suits their business needs, they can always change the game on you.

    On the other hand, building in a city on land you own outright is a lot like developing on top of a decentralized service. Sure, you need roads and municipal infrastructure to service your land (think of these like the above protocol), but you generally don’t need to worry that the city might wake up one day and remove all of this important infrastructure. It’s a given. And that’s a fundamental difference, even if the buildings might look the same in the end.

    Venture capitalist Fred Wilson once explained it in this way, “don’t be a Google bitch, don’t be a Facebook bitch, and don’t be a Twitter bitch. Be your own bitch.” What he meant by this is that if you build on someone else’s land, then you’re opening yourself up to being their bitch. What you want to be is your own bitch. And similar to how our cities work, this is the potential of decentralized services.

    As I write this post, I currently have 6 followers on Warpcast. If you’d like to be number 7, you can follow me here.

  • What the NAR’s $418 million settlement could mean for the real estate industry

    The $418 million commissions lawsuit that was settled last week with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is certainly a big deal. The NAR is trying to sound positive, but all signs point to this outcome being meaningful for the industry. TD Cowen Insights is forecasting that commissions paid in the US each year could fall by some $25 to $50 billion (from a total of ~$100 billion). And this is the headline you’ll see everywhere right now. But how might this actually happen?

    As we’ve talked about before, the status quo commissions set up is a good one for agents:

    • Sellers are typically the party who pays 100% of the commissions
    • But sellers don’t pay until the agent sells and they have fresh cash
    • Money being deducted from proceeds (a “take rate”) is a lot less noticeable and has a lot less friction than cash you just have to pay out of pocket
    • Buyers kind of don’t pay — or at least that’s how they’re supposed to feel

    This is “good” because it perpetuates the existing model. If buyers feel like they’re mostly not paying, they’re just going to go to the marketplace with the most supply of homes. And that marketplace is the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). However, this marketplace also does things like tell buyer agents how much commission they will make as part of each deal. And the belief is that practices like this are anticompetitive.

    So as part of the above settlement, the following new rules are expected to go into place by July 2024 in the US:

    • Seller agents will no longer be able to set compensation for buyer agents
    • All fields on MLS displaying broker compensation will need to be removed
    • Furthermore, agents will no longer even need to subscribe to an MLS in order to accept compensation
    • Buyers working with an agent will need to enter into their own buyer broker agreement and negotiate compensation separately
    • However, there’s nothing stopping buyers and sellers from negotiating whatever commission structure they want; the idea is simply that it will be more transparent and negotiated by each participant

    Why this is meaningful is that it decouples buyer agents and seller agents in a way that they aren’t today. Instead of everything originating from the sell side, each side of the transaction is now going to — theoretically at least — negotiate what they believe is fair compensation for their representation. At the same time, there’s no obligation to even subscribe to an MLS.

    This leads us to, at least, two important things to think about:

    1. What is fair compensation? Well, it should depend. If I’m a first-time buyer, I may want someone to walk me through the entire process. But if I’ve done it many times before, maybe I need very little. Or, if I’m an investor looking to renovate homes, maybe I want representation that is also an expert on construction. The point is that, in a truly open market, one should be able to find an agent and pay them based on the value that they’re creating. And this is presumably why everyone is expecting commissions to fall precipitously.
    2. If there’s no obligation to even subscribe to an MLS, does this then open the door for new and more open listing platforms? Right now, I don’t know how this will play out. I’d like to better understand more of the details around this settlement item and what it could mean for the landscape. But I do know that the way to spur the most amount of innovation would be to have the marketplace run on something like a blockchain, and then allow anyone to create their own listing platform on top of it. One day.

    This will be fascinating to watch play out. And I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before it spurs similar changes here in Canada. Expect further coverage of this topic on the blog.

    Photo by Tom Rumble on Unsplash

  • Blockchain applications in real estate

    I opened up X this afternoon and I saw a photographer tweet that he hadn’t sold a single NFT in the last four months. His conclusion: The NFT market is dying, if not already dead. There are no collectors left. Damn.

    I’m sure it probably feels this way to most. But the reality is that there are a lot of asset classes that feel this exact same way today. (I know that many of you will contest whether NFTs are actually an asset class.) There aren’t a lot of buyers out there right now.

    But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the NFT market, in particular, is done with. In fact, if you look around, there are countless signs that point to the opposite.

    I, for example, find it interesting that if you’re an architect or a city planner in the US, and looking to check off some continuing education units, you can now register for a course at Harvard called From Crypto to the Metaverse: Blockchain Applications in Real Estate.

    And if you look at the learning objectives, it includes things like demystifying how Blockchain technologies work, how they might impact real estate businesses in the future, and what opportunities they may create. This suggests we’re still early.

    Right now just feels like that time in the cycle that tests both your conviction and your discipline. It’s easy to believe in something when everyone else does. But what about when most people don’t?

  • Scarcity in a world of AI

    As someone who collects NFT art, I now see a lot of AI-generated images. Usually I can tell when an image was generated by a computer, but sometimes it’s hard to tell and I’m sure eventually I won’t be able to tell. But if I’m being honest, today I find that I have a bias toward art that was created without any AI prompts. Maybe that changes in the future, or maybe it doesn’t.

    Either way, the marginal cost of producing new content, such as images and videos, has now gone down to zero as a result of AI tools. (Here are some of my crappy creations.) That means that, if you aren’t already, you’re soon going to be faced with a deluge of things created in this way. This will almost certainly become the dominant form of content that we consume.

    I don’t think that we need to be scared by this future, but I do agree with Ben Thompson and others that it’s going to make authenticity and human-content more valuable. In other words, we’re probably going to need to know what is digitally scarce and what is just another thing generated by AI. Thankfully we have a suitable technology for this: it’s called a blockchain.

  • Nobody wants to collect NFTs anymore

    Back when everyone wanted to buy and trade crypto, my friend Evgeny started a marketplace for NFT photography called Sloika. This, to me, felt like an obviously good idea, both in general and for him specifically. Evgeny had previously cofounded the photo company 500px, and so Sloika was initially conceived of as 500px, but for web3. This is a good story.

    I have collected a number of photos via Sloika and, in general, I continue to regularly collect NFTs. Of course today, relatively few people want to trade and collect NFTs. The market is largely dead. What is obvious is that there was a giant NFT bubble and it popped in 2022, along with some other asset bubbles.

    But does this necessarily mean that NFTs and NFT art are bad ideas?

    When I think of bubbles I often think of something that Fred Wilson wrote on his blog. His argument was that bubbles tend to be directionally right; it’s the magnitude that we get wrong. A good example of this is the dot com bubble. Yes, it was a massive bubble. But it was directionally right. The internet was going to matter — a lot it turns out.

    Even if we go back to “tulip mania” during the Dutch Golden Age — which is often brought up as the pinnacle of dumb bubbles — one could argue that it was still directionally right. Today, tulips remain the most sold flower in the US. So we still love them; we just got a little too excited back in the 17the century.

    When it comes to NFT art, I like to think in terms of these questions:

    • Will humans continue to appreciate art? (Seems obvious.)
    • Will humans continue to want to collect things? (This is arguably a fundamental human instinct.)
    • Will provenance and authenticity continue to matter in art? (Blockchain technologies are really good at this.)

    Perhaps the only question that remains is whether people will want to collect digital art. But even this feels fairly obvious to me. The challenge, I think, is that the display side of the market needs to be more built out. Because alongside the instinct to collect things is the instinct to display them. That’s why NFTs initially took off as profile pics on social media.

    So as a start, I think more, better, and cheaper displays would be a big help. There’s something very different about projecting an NFT in your living room versus having it live in a crypto wallet on your phone or computer. You need to really experience it, just as you would a conventional piece of art. And like all art, context matters.

    I haven’t yet invested in a dedicated NFT display, but I plan to do that in the near future. And I’m looking forward to displaying my collection of NFTs, including the one at the top of this post. It’s a drone shot of the west side of Toronto in the middle of winter, and it was gifted to me by Evgeny. Thank you for that. It’s an honor to have it as part of my art collection.

    Photo: Six Bling (via SuperRare)

  • 10 years of daily blogging

    This week marks the 10 year anniversary of this daily blog. In some ways it’s hard to believe that it’s been a decade and in other ways it’s hard to imagine a time when I didn’t write/post something every day. What a habit this has become.

    A lot has changed since 2013.

    Back then, I was still trying to find my way in real estate development. Instagram was only 3 years old. TikTok hadn’t been created yet. And the idea of writing a daily blog didn’t feel as antiquated as it does today. I probably should be vlogging at this point.

    But here’s what hasn’t changed:

    – I enjoy writing, and I think it’s personally beneficial — even if I don’t derive any direct benefits (such as money)

    – I like having my own little corner of the internet that I control — instead of relying exclusively on centralized platforms like Instagram or X

    Today this corner is brandondonnelly.com, but I suspect that brandondonnelly.eth will become just as important over the next decade. The world is heading toward more decentralization. And if/when that does happen, I’ll be sure to write about it on this daily blog.

    Thanks for reading everyone. As usual, I’ll see you tomorrow.

  • Read, write, own

    I have been following Chris Dixon for many years and, yesterday, I learned that he has written a new book called, Read Write Own: Building the Next Era of the Internet. It is a book about web3 (crypto things) and the title is based on thinking about the evolution of the internet in terms of these three phases:

    The first act, called the “read era”, circa 1990-2005, democratized information. Anyone could type a few words into a browser and read about almost any topic through websites.

    The second act, the “read-write era”, roughly 2006-2020, democratized publishing. Anyone could write and publish to mass audiences on social networks and other services through posts.

    The third act, the “read-write-own era”, 2020-present, is democratizing ownership. Anyone can become a stakeholder in a digital service or network, gaining power, governance rights, and economic upside previously reserved for only a small number of corporate affiliates, like stockholders and employees.

    The book won’t be out until March 2024, but if you’re interested, maybe you want to pre-order it or at least get it on your radar. I immediately put this in my queue and I’m looking forward to welcoming it to the pile of books next to my bed.

    Full disclosure: I don’t get anything if you pre-order this book. I’m only putting this out there because I have a high degree of conviction about this coming shift and because, in the future, I want to be able to look back at posts like this one here. I think they’ll age well.