Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

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Tag: ben myers

  • Toronto’s longest running fashion week

    This past weekend we went to check out Fashion Art Toronto.

    I’ll be honest and say that I had never heard of it before we bought tickets. Even though technically, it is the longest running fashion week in the city because of Toronto Fashion Week getting briefly cancelled in 2016, when its corporate sponsor pulled out. I also had no idea that Peter Freed, of Freed Developments, ended up purchasing the TFW brand later that year. I have been told he talks about it on this episode of Toronto Under Construction, but I haven’t had a chance to listen to it just yet.

    Getting back to FAT (the acronym is deliberate), it was a cool event. There were of course various runway shows throughout the day and evening, but there were also a few art installations and a retail area for local designers (see below). Tricon Residential and Kronenbourg 1664 Blanc were major sponsors, and were giving out popcorn and beer. And in general, the crowd was dressed in ways that made me feel both old and stuffy. It was a lot of fun.

    It was also in a warehouse in the Junction. Well, technically I think the neighborhood is called Harwood. But if you’re even remotely close to the Junction nowadays, it is vital that you just assimilate. That’s how this stuff works. As soon as a neighborhood has a successful brand, its boundaries get invariably stretched in every way possible. I suppose this is the Darwinian world of urban neighborhoods. There is always a chance that you may not make it and you might just get absorbed by a neighboring faction.

    I would also add that a lot of creative uses in need of space — whether it’s a fashion show or a DJ event — seem to be gravitating towards this northern part of the Junction. If you see an event location that says “undisclosed warehouse”, chances are it will be here. This is, of course, another naturally occurring urban phenomenon. It is the whole “new ideas require old buildings” thing, which really just means that new ideas require cheaper rents. And generally, it is a good positive leading indicator for an area.

    Having said all this, I do think there’s a lot of room for Toronto to step up its commitment to fashion and the arts. This is not a world that I live in, and I am not criticizing the good work of Fashion Art Toronto or Toronto Fashion Week. I just think that for a global city of our size and influence, we should be much better. I saw some of this city’s ambition, talent, and diversity in a warehouse in the Junction this past weekend. It’s just too bad that it’s not on stage for the rest of the world to see.

  • Two ideas for increasing the supply of new rental housing

    There are lots of ideas out there for how to improve the supply of new rental housing. But it is important to remember, at least here in our market, that the playing field is not level between new condominiums and new rental homes. We have spoken about this before, over here, where I compared the (per square foot) revenue generated from your average new condo against that generated by your average new rental home. Of course, since I wrote that post in 2020, we have seen upward pressure on cap rates (meaning downward pressure on values). So feasibility has gotten even more challenging.

    The important thing to remember is that developers do not have some philosophical aversion to building more rental housing; it is that the math is challenging. You generally need economies of scale (really big projects), patient long-term capital, and a belief that rents will continue to exhibit meaningful positive growth. If you want to negatively impact new supply, cap rental growth. But if you want to encourage new supply, somebody needs to pull out a development pro forma and make the call to improve the cost structure for new rental housing.

    In my opinion, two obvious line items to focus on are development charges (as well as the other government levies) and HST (our harmonized sales tax). The point of development charges, as we always talk about, is for growth to pay for growth. They are intended to pay for municipal services like roads, transit, water and sewer, and so on. In the other words, they’re supposed to capture of the cost impacts of new housing. But what about the impact of not building enough new rental housing? Are we thinking about this the right way? Especially if you consider the possibility of more new rental housing in our existing transit nodes.

    The HST charged on new rental housing is also significant. There is a new residential rental property rebate available to builders (not tax advice!), but the thresholds have not been indexed and so it’s grossly out of date compared to where values sit today. In any event, if the goal is more homes, why not make new rental homes exempt? Developers are simple. If the math works, they will build. If the math doesn’t work, they will not build. And these two line items, alone, would go a long way to helping the former.

    Photo by Pierre Châtel-Innocenti on Unsplash

  • /imagine prompt: A silver Land Rover Defender driving through a snowstorm in the mountains of Utah

    Like everyone else, I have started playing around with Midjourney to create AI-generated images. Here are two that I created last night using the prompt: “A silver Land Rover Defender driving through a snowstorm in the mountains of Utah.”

    Now, you can tell that these are AI-produced images, but it’s still wildly impressive that something like this can be easily generated in a matter of a few seconds. And that’s the thing about AI: it’s easier to get, especially compared to crypto. It’s immediately useful and it’s immediately clear what this can and will disrupt.

    Levis, for example, just announced that it will start using AI-generated photography in lieu of actual fashion photoshoots. This is obviously suboptimal for photographers, models, makeup artists, and so on, but a hell of a lot easier for Levis. I would also imagine that the same thing will happen to real estate renderings and many other things beyond just imagery.

    Ben Myers and Steven Cameron recently speculated on their podcast — Toronto Under Construction — that AI could be used for reviewing development applications. Imagine how much this would speed up reviews and the delivery of new housing! So there are very good reasons for why the hype cycle has moved over to AI from crypto and NFTs.

    However, I’d like to go on the record saying that my gut tells me that this will only make what crypto offers even more important. Permissionless public databases (as opposed to databases controlled by individuals/companies) and the ability to demonstrate authenticity/ownership, feel like two important things to me in a world where computers are constantly generating a flood of new content and nobody knows what is “real” anymore.

    It’s certainly a lot less tangible than, “hey, check out this badass Defender driving through the snow.” But I feel strongly that these two innovations will end up working together.

  • Real estate developers are stupid

    Big Ben Myers of Bullpen Consulting doesn’t usually have strong opinions on Twitter (obviously joking), but I did see him respond to this tweet this morning:

    The assertion he is responding to is basically this: “developers are stupid because they tend to hold onto land during downturns, instead of building through them.” On some level, I think I know where this line of thinking is coming from. It’s the whole Warren Buffet philosophy of “being fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

    But what it ignores is development feasibility. Developers typically rely heavily on the availability of debt financing. First you need land financing in order to acquire the land, and then, once you have your entitlements, condominium pre-sales and/or any other requirements in place, you move onto a construction loan (which often “takes out” your land loan).

    Maybe you have deep enough pockets to fund everything with cash, but most of the time that is not the case. And so if these debt facilities are not available to you, then you are not building.

    The other part of this equation is that, during downturns, it can be harder to forecast your future revenues. What can I sell/rent this space for, and how long will it take to absorb? These are difficult questions in the best of times, but they’re even more difficult when you don’t have a lot of market activity/comparables to point to.

    All of this contributes to debt being less available, especially for smaller developers. It also makes new sites difficult to underwrite. Because as we have talked about many times before on this blog, land should be the residual claimant in a development pro forma. Revenue minus development costs equals how much you can afford to pay for land.

    If the math doesn’t work and if you can’t get financing, it almost certainly doesn’t matter how much “leading” you feel like doing. You’re not building.

  • Basketball and housing and football, oh my

    Three quick and unrelated things for today’s post:

    1.

    A handful of years ago, before the pandemic, Bullpen Consulting, Slate Asset Management, and AD HOC STUDIO started a somewhat irregular basketball meetup for Toronto’s development industry called City Builder Ball. It, of course, fell off the rails during the pandemic, but as of this month we are officially back at it! We played over the weekend and I can’t tell you how much fun it was to run around a gym for an hour and play basketball very poorly — so much fun. The next meetup will be in January and if you’d like to join, drop Ben Myers of Bullpen an email to get on the mailing list. It is open to all.

    2.

    A few months ago I wrote about a passion project that I am working on with a friend, called Unlyst. The idea is to see if there is a way to leverage the “wisdom of crowds” to determine the current market value of housing. And the way it works is that we feature a home on the website, people (or the crowd) get 14 days to input what they think it’s worth, and then we come up with something we are calling an “unlysted value.” There’s a lot of evidence of this sort of thing working exceptionally well for other markets, so we’re very curious to see if it can work for housing. If you’re interested in contributing your home and/or just seeing how it works, check out unlyst.com.

    3.

    World Cup Finals. What a game! A huge congratulations to Argentina and, of course, Messi. I should, however, come clean and say that I know virtually nothing about football, I don’t know why the field is so big, and that my overall impression of the game used to be mostly consistent with this Simpsons’ take (albeit with more sensationalized flopping by men with faux hawks). But since Canada qualified this year, I felt it was my duty to watch — at least some bits and until we got eliminated. And since the finals are the finals, and since I have an open crush on France, I figured this would also be a good game to watch. Turns out I was right. And now, I am fairly certain that it has turned me into a true fan — or at the very least a “I could watch a finals game every 4 years” kind of fan. Who knew that soccer, I mean football, could be so thrilling?

    Photo by Florian Wehde on Unsplash

  • Q2-2022 land prices in the Greater Toronto Area

    Bullpen Consulting just released its latest land insights reports for the Greater Toronto Area. For the period of Q2-2022, Ben Myers and the team identified 46 high-density residential land transactions with an average price of $95 per buildable square foot. This is down from $112 pbsf in Q1.

    In the core of the city (former City of Toronto), the average price for Q2-2022 was $135 pbsf. In North York it was $103 pbsf. And in Scarborough it was $50 pbsf. Overall land prices are down about 15% from last quarter (though it’s important to note that quarterly transactions can represent a relatively small sample size).

    We have spoken before about how land prices tend to be fairly sticky in the face of changing cost structures. But what we are seeing right now is a bit of a perfect storm:

    • Development charges (here in Toronto) are set to increase by 49%
    • Hard costs have seen double digit increases (with some inputs increasing by 30-40%)
    • Inclusionary zoning is on the horizon and will add another additional cost to new housing
    • And rising interest rates are both increasing project costs (higher interest charges) and slowing the macro economy

    All of this is naturally causing developers to be more cautious when it comes buying new land. And we are seeing that in the above pricing. But at the same time, this dip in pricing is not going to be enough to absorb all of the additional costs that new housing projects now face in today’s market.

    If you’d like to download a full copy of Bullpen’s report, click here.

  • Current state of Toronto’s new condo market

    Ben Myers of Bullpen Research & Consulting was recently interviewed by Newinhomes.com about the state of Toronto’s new housing market. Ben is always interesting. And these are the sorts of things that I read in my spare time. So here’s an excerpt:

    The average price of popular new condo floor plans in the City of Toronto in October 2019 was approximately $1,275 per-square-foot (psf) and with growth of 3% a year, prices would hit $1,475 psf in 2024. I wouldn’t be surprised to see annual average growth of 4%, which would get you to $1,625 psf in five years in Toronto.

    This data was taken from BuzzBuzzHome and — by “popular new condo floor plans” — I believe he means that these are the floor plans that buyers tend to click on and review when they visit the site. So it’s a good indication of buyer demand.

    Here’s another quote that stuck out:

    Part of the reason that price growth has spiked is a rise in construction costs, development charges, and land prices – this cost-push inflation is passed on to consumers.

    That sounds right. And I have been writing about this phenomenon all year. Most of us can probably remember when $1,000+ psf was a high water mark for new construction condos. Now it’s pretty much a floor.