Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

Tag: annual letter

  • What are you serving at your restaurant?

    Warren Buffet’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders was just published for 2020. It can be downloaded here. I have made a habit out of reading his letter every year and his overall approach has been instrumental in shaping the way I think about investing.

    What is clear to me when I look at the first page of each letter — which contains a comparison of Berkshire’s performance to that of the S&P 500 — is that he and Charlie Munger have got to be the most successful stock market investors of the last century.

    They have consistently outperformed the market. And they have done that by focusing on fundamentals, doing what others are not (i.e. being contrarians), and being incredibly patient, among other things. All of this isn’t rocket science. It’s simple, understandable, and repeatable.

    The other thing we can learn from his widely read letters is that clear and concise writing is a powerful tool. I have said this many times before, but to explain something clearly it means you need to really understand it. Things tend to get complicated when you don’t know what you’re taking about.

    And with that, here’s an excerpt from this year’s annual letter:

    In 1958, Phil Fisher wrote a superb book on investing. In it, he analogized running a public company to managing a restaurant. If you are seeking diners, he said, you can attract a clientele and prosper featuring either hamburgers served with a Coke or a French cuisine accompanied by exotic wines. But you must not, Fisher warned, capriciously switch from one to the other: Your message to potential customers must be consistent with what they will find upon entering your premises.

    At Berkshire, we have been serving hamburgers and Coke for 56 years. We cherish the clientele this fare has attracted.

    The tens of millions of other investors and speculators in the United States and elsewhere have a wide variety of equity choices to fit their tastes. They will find CEOs and market gurus with enticing ideas. If they want price targets, managed earnings and “stories,” they will not lack suitors. “Technicians” will confidently instruct them as to what some wiggles on a chart portend for a stock’s next move. The calls for action will never stop.

    Many of those investors, I should add, will do quite well. After all, ownership of stocks is very much a “positive-sum” game. Indeed, a patient and level-headed monkey, who constructs a portfolio by throwing 50 darts at a board listing all of the S&P 500, will – over time – enjoy dividends and capital gains, just as long as it never gets tempted to make changes in its original “selections.”

    Productive assets such as farms, real estate and, yes, business ownership produce wealth – lots of it. Most owners of such properties will be rewarded. All that’s required is the passage of time, an inner calm, ample diversification and a minimization of transactions and fees. Still, investors must never forget that their expenses are Wall Street’s income. And, unlike my monkey, Wall Streeters do not work for peanuts.

    When seats open up at Berkshire – and we hope they are few – we want them to be occupied by newcomers who understand and desire what we offer. After decades of management, Charlie and I remain unable to promise results. We can and do, however, pledge to treat you as partners.

    And so, too, will our successors.

  • Experimenting at the right scale

    Jeff Bezos published his annual letter to shareowners this week. You can find it here. And as is his usual practice, he has attached his 1997 letter to shareholders at the bottom of it. This is his “Day 1” and he clearly likes the reminder.

    I was somewhat surprised to learn that 58% of physical gross merchandise sales on Amazon are now by independent third-party sellers. This number has been steadily increasing almost every year since 1999.

    And this is despite the fact that first party sales — products sold by Amazon — have grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% during this same time period. Amazon excels at the fulfillment component and you can have them do that for you as a third-party seller.

    There are a number of other interesting facts sprinkled throughout the letter, but I particularly liked the bits on “intuition, curiosity, and the power of wandering.” Here is an excerpt on how Amazon is working to scale the size of its failures:

    As a company grows, everything needs to scale, including the size of your failed experiments. If the size of your failures isn’t growing, you’re not going to be inventing at a size that can actually move the needle. Amazon will be experimenting at the right scale for a company of our size if we occasionally have multibillion-dollar failures. Of course, we won’t undertake such experiments cavalierly. We will work hard to make them good bets, but not all good bets will ultimately pay out. This kind of large-scale risk taking is part of the service we as a large company can provide to our customers and to society. The good news for shareowners is that a single big winning bet can more than cover the cost of many losers.

    A lot has already been said and written about accepting failure in life and business. Nobody wants to fail, but it can happen when you’re trying to “imagine the impossible.”

    The two nuances here are that failures should scale along with the company. And that “large-scale risk taking” can actually be construed as a service. It might mean that the impossible becomes possible.

  • A sensible purchase price

    “Investing is an activity in which consumption today is foregone in an attempt to allow greater consumption at a later date. “Risk” is the possibility that this objective won’t be attained.” -Warren Buffet

    Warren Buffet published his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders this past Saturday. I always enjoy reading his letters and I have been doing it for years. If only he wrote a daily blog.

    One of the things he talks about in this year’s letter is why Berkshire wasn’t very acquisitive in 2017:

    In our search for new stand-alone businesses, the key qualities we seek are durable competitive strengths; able and high-grade management; good returns on the net tangible assets required to operate the business; opportunities for internal growth at attractive returns; and, finally, a sensible purchase price.

    That last requirement proved a barrier to virtually all deals we reviewed in 2017, as prices for decent, but far from spectacular, businesses hit an all-time high. Indeed, price seemed almost irrelevant to an army of optimistic purchasers.

    Some of you in the real estate game might be feeling similarly. But he ends the section with these words of advice: 

    In the meantime, we will stick with our simple guideline: The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own.

    Buffet has a way of simplifying things. He also, clearly, has a way of remaining disciplined.

  • Warren’s blog

    I just finished reading Warren Buffet’s 2015 annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. If you haven’t yet read one of his letters and you’re at all interested in business and investing, I would encourage you to check them out. (By going to their website you’ll also get a reminder of what the web looked like circa 1995.)

    When I read them I feel as if I’m reading a giant blog post from Warren Buffet – albeit one that only gets published once a year. They’re well-written and easy to read. They’re personal. They’re light and humorous. (He drops Tinder, the mobile dating app, in this year’s letter.) And they’re packed full of invaluable information and insights.

    To give you a sample, here are two snippets that I liked:

    “Our flexibility in capital allocation – our willingness to invest large sums passively in non-controlled
    businesses – gives us a significant edge over companies that limit themselves to acquisitions they will
    operate. Woody Allen once explained that the advantage of being bi-sexual is that it doubles your chance
    of finding a date on Saturday night. In like manner – well, not exactly like manner – our appetite for either
    operating businesses or passive investments doubles our chances of finding sensible uses for Berkshire’s
    endless gusher of cash.”

    “America’s population is growing about .8% per year (.5% from births minus deaths and .3% from net
    migration). Thus 2% of overall growth produces about 1.2% of per capita growth. That may not sound impressive.
    But in a single generation of, say, 25 years, that rate of growth leads to a gain of 34.4% in real GDP per capita.
    (Compounding’s effects produce the excess over the percentage that would result by simply multiplying 25 x 1.2%.)
    In turn, that 34.4% gain will produce a staggering $19,000 increase in real GDP per capita for the next generation.”

    Overall, he remains, and rightly so I’d say, very bullish on the United States: “For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start.”

    What do you think?

  • What I see as the fundamentals of real estate investing

    Earlier this week my father sent me this article containing an excerpt of Warren Buffet’s upcoming shareholder letter. His annual letter—which started in 1965—is well known in the investment community. And in many ways, it’s like his own annual blog, started well before anybody knew what a blog was. His letters are personal, genuine and engaging—just like a good blog should be.

    But for me, what was really interesting about the letter is that it provided a number of lessons about investing in real estate. Lessons which, in my view, really represent the fundamentals of the business. The way I think about it is that there are really 2 ways in which to make money as a real estate investor over the long term. You can develop/reposition real estate and/or you can collect rent.

    Develop/Reposition

    If you’re developing or repositioning real estate, it means you’re doing something to increase the value of the property. It could be by rezoning, building new, or through an aggressive leasing strategy. It’s whatever you believe will unlock additional value. Once you’ve done this, you then either sell the property or you move onto the 2nd way of making money in real estate.

    Collect Rent

    By collecting rent, I really mean that you’re buying yield. This means you’re saying to yourself:

    I can buy this property for $1,000,000 and the net operating income on it is $100,000 (per year). So that means I’m buying at a 10% cap rate (or return). 

    Or maybe you’re saying:

    I can buy this property for $1,000,000, but the net operating income is only $25,000. However, the rents are well below market and I think I can easily get this thing up to a “10 cap.”

    Either way, you’re buying a stream of cash flows and you have an understanding of where that cash is going to come from.

    Speculate

    If on the other hand, you’re buying solely on the expectation that prices are destined to rise, you are—as Buffet points out in his letter—speculating. You’re not doing anything to create value and so you’re not developing. And if you’re counting on price growth to generate your investment returns, then you aren’t buying yield either.

    While many people have made large sums of money by speculating on real estate, I don’t consider myself capable of doing that in any sort of sustainable way. Hell, if Warren Buffet doesn’t think he can do that, why should I think I’m special.

    But some of you may disagree with this framework. If so, I’d love to hear from you in the comment section at the bottom of this post.