Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

Tag: amazon go

  • Amazon moves away from “Just Walk Out” technology at its grocery stores

    Back in 2018, Amazon opened its first cashier-less grocery store. The technology — which it later branded as “Just Walk Out” — was intended to allow customers to do exactly that. All you had to do was put items into your cart and walk out of the store. And then, through the magic of sophisticated computer vision, machine learning, and lots of sensors, you would be billed and sent a receipt.

    However, this month the company announced that it will be moving away from this technology, and instead focusing on its Dash Carts (more on this shortly). It turns out that the technology wasn’t nearly automated enough.

    Last year, The Information reported that “Just Walk Out” was relying on at least 1,000 off-site workers in India to constantly review video footage and figure out who had bought what. This is why it apparently took so long to receive a bill sometimes; humans far away were working to figure out if that was a persimmon in your hand, or a tomato.

    I’m not an expert on this space, but I’m guessing it is not (yet) feasible to do what Uniqlo and other retailers now do with their supply chains and checkouts. So this was the workaround. Whatever the case, Amazon has now said that it will be focusing on its Dash Carts, which are kind of like roaming checkout counters. They come with screens and scales for weighing things.

    Obviously the ideal solution is to not have to do or scan anything. But being able to avoid check-out lines still feels like meaningful progress. I just wonder if these smart carts will encourage or discourage spending. Because now everyone will have a live receipt in front of them. That might discourage spending unless you can offset it with rewards and/or other incentives.

  • Amazon’s cashier-less grocery store finally opens

    This morning the first Amazon Go store opened to the public in downtown Seattle. It’s more convenience store than grocery store, but the big deal is that there are no cashiers and no lines.

    You enter the store through a gate and with your phone and Amazon’s app. As you walk around the store and pick up items they get automatically added to your online cart on Amazon.

    So everything goes right into the offline bag you’ll be leaving the store with. Place an item back on the shelf and it is instantly removed from your “cart.” Walk out of the store and you’re automatically charged.

    It’s not yet clear how exactly the technology works, but Amazon says that all of this is accomplished through sophisticated computer vision (cameras), machine learning, and lots of sensors. 

    What’s really remarkable is that it doesn’t rely on every product having a special chip or sensor attached to it. I would think that was one of the biggest hurdles to overcome in order to remove the pain point of grocery store lines.

    Now that this is up and running, I can only imagine the customer behavior data that they must be collecting. Heat maps of every shelf showing conversion rates for every imaginable customer segment. (Are tall people more likely to buy products displayed higher up?) Correlating people’s food purchases to their broader Amazon shopping habits. And the list, I’m sure, goes on. 

    There is even speculation that Amazon will begin licensing this technology to other retailers, similar to what it does with Amazon Web Services. That seems like a reasonable assumption given the data play we just talked about. Assuming the tech works, it’ll get copied. So they may as well embed themselves.

    In case you were wondering, the Bureau of Labor Statistics pegs the number of cashiers in the US at about 3,555,500 (2016 number).

    And this number is projected to remain more or less flat until 2026.

    That doesn’t feel right to me.

  • So the tech works. What’s next?

    Below is a keynote talk by Benedict Evans about what’s going on in tech today and what may happen in the next ten years. It covers: the growth of mobile; S-curves; Google / Apple / Facebook / Amazon (who knew Amazon had so many employees?); machine learning; autonomous vehicles/impact to cities; mixed reality; crypto-currencies; and so on.

    For those of you interested in crypto-currencies – and that appears to be everyone these days – it’s interesting to hear how Evans describes their current position at the beginning of the curve: “The tech works, but what’s the use case?” This is not to say the potential isn’t huge. It is. Automated trust. Distributed and programmable money. But the future is still unclear.

    If you can’t see the video below, click here.

    [youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVYDkPidXrU&w=560&h=315]

  • The grocery wars: Why Amazon bought Whole Foods

    The big news on Friday was that Amazon has agreed to buy grocery chain Whole Foods for $13.4 billion.

    Some people – such as Bruce Berkowitz, who manages the $2.3 billion Fairholme Fund and who is the second largest shareholder of Sears Holdings Corp. – believe that this says to the market that “there is a need for physical space in retailing.” Everything can’t be online.

    I obviously agree that there’s value in real estate / physical locations, but I don’t see this as Amazon capitulating in any way. This is not Amazon saying to itself: “Well, AmazonFresh hasn’t grown as quickly as we’d like, so let’s forget this ecommerce thing.” No, Amazon is determined to win.

    Indeed, the fact that shares of supermarket operators tumbled across the U.S., Canada, and Europe, probably signals that the market is expecting something other than the status quo following this acquisition. 

    All of this is a big deal because grocery is a big deal

    There’s a reason Wal-Mart ramped up grocery (and now derives over half of its revenue from it). There’s a reason why drug stores are proliferating across our cities (and expanding their grocery offerings). In Toronto it’s Shoppers Drug Mart and Rexall. In New York it’s Duane Reade.

    We buy groceries frequently and we overwhelmingly still buy them in person. So online grocery is the holy grail of ecommerce of right now. Everyone wants to nail it first.

    How does this acquisition help Amazon do that? Here are two thoughts.

    1) The real estate still matters. 

    Even in a world where most groceries are purchased online, you need still need physical distribution centers in close proximity to lots of customers.

    Whole Foods has more than 460 stores across the U.S., Canada, and Britain. Their formatting would obviously evolve, but the bones are there for Amazon to leverage.

    Startups such as Instacart have tried to circumvent this requirement by fulfilling only the delivery portion. And arguably their pitch to other grocers may now be stronger: “You need to offer this to compete with Amazon/Whole Foods.” (Instacart currently provides this service Whole Foods.) But you can bet Amazon will want to squeeze/control this part of the supply chain.

    2) The data.

    Many analysts are already assuming that Amazon will work to automate away cashiers, similar to what it’s trying to do with its Amazon Go concept store. If you combine this with other offerings such as 15 minute pickup (Amazon Fresh PIckup), you can easily imagine a world where us customers get weaned off of in-person shopping.

    For example, if my regular grocery store made better use of its data, it would probably come to the conclusion that I generally buy things like orange juice, milk, and avocados (I’m a Millennial) every X days. I’m sure if you look at my shopping habits, I’m pretty predictable. Whenever I go to a new store it always takes me 100% longer to shop because I don’t generally wander. I target my stuff.

    Now if I could get somehow prompted to re-order my regular items every X – 1 days, chances are I would gladly tap order. And now I’m shopping for groceries online. Get ready for the grocery wars.

  • Take it and go

    Given the option, I will buy online as opposed to offline. About the only thing I consistently buy in-person is groceries. Food shopping remains a persistently in-store activity for most of the market. Though some European countries seem to have much higher online food shopping rates.

    It is for reasons like this that Amazon opened a new small-format grocery store this past Monday called Amazon Go. The big game changer – which is currently making the rounds on the internet – is the fact that there are no check out counters. You simply check-in with their app when you walk into the store and then leave with whatever you want. Your phone will automatically charge you for whatever you picked up.

    Finally! Grocery store check outs suck. (The store is currently in beta and will not open to the general public until 2017.)

    But perhaps even more meaningful is all the data that Amazon will be collecting about our grocery shopping habits. This will scare some of you, I’m sure. But I can tell you that there are a slew of things that I buy regularly. And I bet that if you analyzed the data, the purchases would happen at fairly regular intervals: bananas every x days, orange juice every y days, etc.

    So once Amazon Go learns what I like to buy, I am sure that it will then start to try and sell it to me online, along with some sort of subscription. If it can assure me that the produce is fresh and the expiry dates are far out (if they’re not, I want to be able to take a picture and get a refund), then there’s probably a good chance that I, as well as others, could be converted to online food shoppers.