What I have learned from this recent New York Times article is that if you have a company with "AI" in the name — such as OpenAI, ScaleAI, Adept AI, Hayden AI, or Harvey AI — then you probably need to lease office space in an area of San Francisco (around the Mission District) that is now being called The Arena. Here's a map from the article:

The struggles of San Francisco's office market have been well publicized. At the beginning of this year, San Francisco had the highest office vacancy in the US at approximately 27.8%. But beneath this headline, AI firms have leased more than 5 million square feet in the city since 2020. And CBRE is forecasting that AI-related companies will lease another 16 million square feet between now and 2030. So here comes the boom following the bust — which is the bipolar way in which San Francisco generally likes to operate.

But what is also interesting is that, even in this brave new world of AI, blockchains, and remote work, agglomeration economies are alive and well. AI companies are choosing to physically cluster in The Arena because there are economic benefits to doing so. There are mountains of research to support the fact that it will make these firms more innovative and more productive due to knowledge spillovers. You don't want to be isolated from your competitors — you want to be cheek by jowl. Physical proximity matters and, therefore, cities matter.

So much so that the New York Times is now asking: What if San Francisco is the new Silicon Valley? In other words, could its center of gravity be right now moving from the suburbs to the city? That makes perfect sense to me.

Cover photo by Josh Hild on Unsplash; map from the New York Times

What I have learned from this recent New York Times article is that if you have a company with "AI" in the name — such as OpenAI, ScaleAI, Adept AI, Hayden AI, or Harvey AI — then you probably need to lease office space in an area of San Francisco (around the Mission District) that is now being called The Arena. Here's a map from the article:

The struggles of San Francisco's office market have been well publicized. At the beginning of this year, San Francisco had the highest office vacancy in the US at approximately 27.8%. But beneath this headline, AI firms have leased more than 5 million square feet in the city since 2020. And CBRE is forecasting that AI-related companies will lease another 16 million square feet between now and 2030. So here comes the boom following the bust — which is the bipolar way in which San Francisco generally likes to operate.

But what is also interesting is that, even in this brave new world of AI, blockchains, and remote work, agglomeration economies are alive and well. AI companies are choosing to physically cluster in The Arena because there are economic benefits to doing so. There are mountains of research to support the fact that it will make these firms more innovative and more productive due to knowledge spillovers. You don't want to be isolated from your competitors — you want to be cheek by jowl. Physical proximity matters and, therefore, cities matter.

So much so that the New York Times is now asking: What if San Francisco is the new Silicon Valley? In other words, could its center of gravity be right now moving from the suburbs to the city? That makes perfect sense to me.

Cover photo by Josh Hild on Unsplash; map from the New York Times