Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

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  • Random thoughts about climate change

    One of the things that I have been wondering lately with all of the devastation caused by hurricanes Harvey and Irma is if we need to be viewing these catastrophic incidents as the result of climate change or if we’re being too quick to apply the availability heuristic.

    The latter being: “Look at all of these horrible hurricanes. Climate change must really be here and happening right now.”

    Albert Wenger is covering this topic on his blog right now through his “Uncertainty Wednesday” series and has also written similar posts in the past. The current series is still ongoing, but a few things stood out to me as I was going through the archives. I’ll mention 3 of them today.

    Firstly, it’s important to understand the difference between weather and climate. Weather is what’s happening at any given moment. Climate, on the other hand, is the statistics of weather. Albert proposes the following definition for climate, which I like:

    “Climate is the probability distribution of possible weather events.”

    Secondly, the data is clear: We have gotten far better at forecasting weather over the years. Accuracy has greatly improved. 

    But we’re still pretty bad at it, particularly over longer periods of time. According this graph, we’re about 97.5% accurate for 3 day forecasts, but only about 40% accurate for 10 day forecasts. So by “longer periods of time”, I’m really talking about forecasts that go out beyond one week. That’s not very far into the future.

    Thirdly, Albert has this post from last year where he talks about the flooding we saw on the U.S. east coast and also the slowing down of the Gulf Stream. 

    This is fascinating, and also frightening, because the Gulf Stream is a vital ocean current. Among other things, it warms western and northern Europe – likely making it warmer than it otherwise would be – and, according to some models, it lowers the sea level along the U.S. east coast by as much as 3 feet. 

    The frightening part is that as the Gulf Stream slows it also stops pulling away the same amount of water from the coast, which is arguably why mean sea level is increasing.

    I say “arguably”, but the data clearly suggests an acceleration in the rate of rise. Here are two charts that Albert prepared. And there’s more: The U.S. east coast may also have it worse in terms of sea level rise precisely because of this phenomenon.

    This is an interesting and, of course, important topic. This post obviously doesn’t do it justice, but I am trying to learn as much as I can. Writing always helps with that.

    Photo by Joseph Barrientos on Unsplash

  • Celebrate the sidewalk (at Yonge + St. Clair)

    I have two quick announcements to make regarding Yonge + St. Clair in midtown Toronto.

    The first is that Slate has just unveiled a new “ravine bench” at the northeast corner of the intersection. 

    Here’s a photo:

    And here’s another photo with people sitting in it. #SitTO

    Designed by Gensler (the same firm behind the renovation of 2 St. Clair Ave East), the design is all about celebrating both the sidewalk/public realm and the extraordinary ravines that cut through the area. Some people may not even be aware of these natural features, so perhaps this bench will help with that.

    The second announcement is the launch of our Yonge + St. Clair Pop-up Store at 1470 Yonge Street. I know this is short notice, but the launch party is on Thursday, September 21 from 6 – 10pm (drop in whenever). That’s tonight if you’re reading this post via email subscription.

    At the party we’ll be introducing 8 exclusive t-shirt designs from Toronto artist, Lucas Young. All of the tees will be screen-printed for you right on the spot and 50% of all proceeds from the opening night will be going to The Canadian Cancer Society. 

    Wine, beer, and snacks will be available. If you come find me at the party, I’ll give you some drink tickets. So if you’re around on Thursday night, come by for some drinks, a Toronto tee, and to check out the new ravine bench on Yonge Street.

  • Kickstarter: Modern map art

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    It has been a while since I shared a Kickstarter campaign on the blog and this one caught my attention:

    https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1505932940/map-art-prints/widget/card.html?v=2

    If you can’t see the project embedded above, click here.

    The project is colorful abstract art maps of anywhere in the world. You can also choose whatever color theme you want.

    I think these are beautiful. The print at the top of this post is Rome.

  • Airbnb-ing your way to homeownership

    I just discovered an interesting new Seattle-based startup called Loftium. 

    The way it works is that they provide down payment assistance (up to $50,000) to prospective homeowners as long as they commit to renting out one of the home’s bedrooms on Airbnb for 12 to 36 months. Loftium is positioning it as a way to help first time buyers get onto the property ladder.

    Here’s an example of how the math might work (taken from the New York Times):

    The details certainly matter a great deal here but, high level, the homeowner gets $50k upfront, ~$1k per month in shared Airbnb revenue, and the opportunity to buy a home. You just have to be committed to being a host.

    And from Loftium’s perspective, they put out $50k at the outset and get back just over $28k a year for 3 years. Assuming these assumptions are correct, that’s a pretty good IRR. 

    However, if the home doesn’t generate enough Airbnb income during the agreed upon term, Loftium is on the hook because the homeowner doesn’t owe anything after the “services contract” expires.

    Think this will fly? Would you use it?

  • My old Philly apartment

    I’m in Philly right now for a good friend’s wedding. 

    I always feel nostalgic when I come back to this city. Some of my most memorable years were spent here. I grew a lot in those 3 years. I also think that Philly is a highly underrated city – such an intimate urban scale.

    I’m staying at the newly renovated Warwick Hotel in Rittenhouse Square. The lobby is beautiful, as are the corridors, but the rooms already feel a bit a dated to me. However the Barcelona Chair in my room is a welcome addition. That thing will never go out of style.

    My hotel happens to be two blocks away from my old apartment at 17th and Spruce. So I decided to do a walk-by while I waited for my room to be ready. My roommate and I had the entire second floor of this building:

    It was palatial, especially given the bargain price and its location in Rittenhouse Square. 

    The graffiti you see above is located on the north wall of the kitchen. I think that’s a recent addition. The fire stair you see provided access to the roof of the building (as well as the street, I hope). I’m not sure we were supposed to go up there, but we obviously used it for parties.

    Grillmaster Deli is still next door. They kept me fed when I was studying at home and too busy to cook. That was often. And across the street is the Italian restaurant with its sidewalk patio that I used to look out onto from my bedroom.

    This walk-up apartment was by no means fancy. Though it did have ensuite laundry, which was a nice improvement from my previous place. But it was unabashedly urban. My kind of place.

  • The 10 most promising Hyperloop routes (and thoughts on the naysayers)

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    On September 14, 2017, Hyperloop One announced the 10 winners of its Global Challenge. These are the world’s “most promising” Hyperloop routes; selected through a process that began in May 2016 and involved more than 2,600 registered teams.

    The winners:

    1. Canada | Toronto-Montreal
    2. India | Bengaluru-Chennai
    3. India | Mumbai-Chennai
    4. Mexico | Mexico City-Guadalajara
    5. UK | Edinburgh-London
    6. UK | Glasgow-Liverpool
    7. US | Chicago-Columbus-Pittsburgh
    8. US | Miami-Orlando
    9. US | Cheyenne-Denver-Pueblo
    10. US | Dallas-Laredo-Houston

    If you aren’t familiar with what Hyperloop One is trying to accomplish, here is a quick video explaining the basics. Their goal is to have the world’s first operating Hyperloop by 2021.

    If you happen to live in one of the above regions (about 148 million of us do), then you are probably already seeing the headlines in your feeds. For Canada, the promise is of connecting 25% of our country’s population with one single Hyperloop route.

    It would mean Toronto-Montreal in just 39 minutes:

    image

    This is shorter than many morning commutes. So it’s not hard to see why this is a tantalizing proposition. It would mean a union of our two biggest cities and our capital. More accessible Montreal bagels. And maybe, just maybe, a strengthened sense of bilingualism in this country. 

    But there are also critics who believe that all of this Hyperloop hype is simply a distraction. Why not focus on proven technologies as opposed to some fanciful pipe dream that may never materialize? This is about stroking political egos as opposed to real progress.

    My views are pretty simple on this one.

    Will Hyperloop Canada happen? Maybe. Maybe not. I sure hope it does. But it may not. It’s easy to draw lines on a map. It’s much harder to actually execute on those lines. And of course, logistics aside, the technology is still being developed.

    But if all we ever focused our energy on were things that have already been “proven”, we likely wouldn’t create many new things. Things that today are proven, were once unproven. But they became proven because there were folks who didn’t let that minor detail deter them from trying. They went for it.

    So if a private company would like to go out and raise $160 million from private investors to try and figure out how to sustainably connect Canada’s two largest cities in 39 minutes, I am more than happy to cheerlead. Because I’m not the one trying. Who am I to naysay? 

  • So, what’s a town square?

    Earlier this week, Apple let us know that it is now calling its stores “town squares.” Not surprisingly, this elicited more than a few reactions. The Verge called it a “pretentious farce.” Others called it arrogant. Who is Apple to think that its stores could ever come close to a real town square?

    It also raised important questions around the actual “publicness” of the spaces within our cities. Traditionally, town squares have indeed been public. But our cities are now also filled with many privately owned public spaces (POPS). Most of the time you don’t know the difference. Though sometimes you do. 

    The reality is that there is a longstanding tradition of private retail-oriented spaces trying to simulate the experience of a town square, and certainly of a gathering space. The creator of the modern mall, Victor Gruen, always thought of his “garden courts” as a kind of substitute for traditional urban spaces. This was him trying to nobly urbanize the suburbs.

    What is perhaps unique about Apple’s town square nomenclature is that – beyond simply wanting to be a Starbucks-esque “third place” – they seem to be telling us that they want to usurp the public nucleus away from the proverbial “garden court” and place it in their individual stores. 

    And the reactions we have seen are because that feels far fetched.

    However this plays out, this is a very clear acknowledgement by Apple that in today’s world being a store simply isn’t enough. That’s no longer interesting. Consumers have far easier options at their disposable. You need to give us more of a reason to visit you in your store or, dare I say, your town square.

  • The Life-Sized City

    I just discovered a new video series by TVO called, The Life-Sized City. It’s all about the “anatomy of the modern metropolis.” The first episode – which was released on Sep 13 – is on Medellin and is just under an hour long. I have a feeling that many of you will like this video series.

    Whenever I watch videos like this, it makes me think that I should be starting a city building-focused vlog. I am a big fan of this format. I follow a handful of vloggers. And I think it could be a lot of fun. But sometimes you just have to say no.

    For those of you who aren’t longtime readers, I would also like to point out that my good friend Alex Feldman wrote a guest post on this blog over 3 years ago following a trip to Medellin. It’s about what cities could learn from Medellin’s extraordinary turnaround. If you missed it, click here.

  • What are bubbles?

    Social Capital (Silicon Valley VC firm) recently published an interesting series on (economic) bubbles: what they are, how they form, when they are useful, and so on. It’s worth a read – you can start here.

    Here’s a taste:

    “Prices in markets turn out to have two roles: they tell us something about the past, and they influence our actions — and therefore, their own price — in the future. Sometimes, in a big way, this dual role makes a particular asset class — tulip bulbs, railway stock, Canadian real estate, a digital token — become attractive solely because its price is going up. George Soros characterized and mastered this phenomenon, known as Reflexivity: when our views and our actions reinforce each other. If an expensive price means that something is high quality or otherwise attractive, we will tend to buy more of it and drive the price higher, independently of whether or not the thing is any good. It’s true for sunglasses, it’s true for ICOs, and a whole lot more.”

    For obvious reasons I couldn’t resist posting this quote. Notwithstanding the shot at Canadian real estate, bubbles are a fascinating topic. They happen time and time again because we are greedy.

  • Fall event roundup

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    It’s still sunny and beautiful outside, so I don’t mean to be the one who prematurely calls fall. But I would like to get 3 Toronto events on your radar for the coming two months. 

    Full disclosure: These are all events that I support and/or my company supports in some way. 

    If you’re not based in Toronto and you don’t plan to be here this fall, you can stop reading right now and check back tomorrow. I promise to will try to be less Toronto-centric.

    1. EDIT: Expo for Design, Innovation and Technology, September 28 – October 8

    This is a 10-day immersive experience that will showcase how the intersection of design, technology and innovation can change the world. Think exhibits by Bruce Mau and Carlo Ratti; talks by David Suzuki and Scott Dadich (former editor-in-chief of WIRED and creator of the Netflix series The Art of Design); and projects spanning 3D-printed prosthetics to indigenous housing solutions. 70 speakers. 40 workshops. And over 150,000 sf of exhibits. Too much to write about here, but all topics and themes we frequently explore on this blog. Ticketing information here.

    2. NXT City Public Space Symposium, October 13 – 14

    This is a two day symposium about public space on a global stage. Talks. Public space tours. Round table sessions. And an epic after-party. Some of the speakers include Jeff Risom (Partner at Gehl Architects); Enrique Norten (Founder of TEN Arquitectos in Mexico City – and one of my grad school professors); and Mirik Milan (Amsterdam’s Night Mayor and someone who has gotten quite a bit of airtime on this blog). If you click here to grab your tickets, you’ll get 15% off. If for whatever reason that doesn’t work, use the code BDONN15.

    3. lost&gone: Romeo & Juliet, October 19 – 21 and October 27 – 28

    This is, I think, Toronto’s first truly immersive theater experience. For those of you who aren’t familiar, immersive theater is about turning the audience into participants of the production. It eliminates the “fourth wall” that traditionally divides audience and performers. I’ve heard great things about similar productions elsewhere in the world. The venue is a secret, so the show starts today with you having to try and figure out where it is in the core of Toronto. When you buy your tickets, you’ll also have to let them know if you’re a guest of the Capulets (Juliet’s family) or a guest of the Montagues (Romeo’s family). 

    Enjoy 🙂

    Photo by Brxxto on Unsplash