Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

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  • Average January temperatures by global city

    In Edward Glaeser’s book, Triumph of the City, he argues that the average temperature in January is the single best variable to predict which U.S. cities have grown the most over the last century. Indeed, from July 2015 to July 2016, 10 of the 15 fastest growing large metro areas in the U.S. were in the south. Follow the sun and sprawl.

    Given this phenomenon, I thought it would be interesting to look at the world’s most influential cities (i.e. global cities) through this lens. Because let’s face it, New York and London aren’t all that warm in January. 

    Below are the top 25 global cities (taken from A.T. Kearney’s 2018 Global Cities Report), along with their average January temperature (taken from here). Note, there are two rankings. On the left is their global cities index. And on the right is their global cities outlook, which evaluates current potential. Cities that improved their economics & governance made the biggest leap on the right.

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    First of all, it’s interesting to see San Francisco jump so significantly in their outlook ranking. This has everything to do with tech and innovation. It’s also important to note that a handful of the above cities are located in the southern hemisphere, so “average January temperature” doesn’t mean the same thing (probably should have normalized to their winter).

    Montreal wins the award for the coldest city in this ranking. And there’s really only one city, Singapore, with a tropical climate. Though there are others, such as Hong Kong and Sydney, that would fall under subtropical. All of this isn’t enough for us to start inferring anything, but perhaps colder and more temperate climates aren’t such a bad thing for economic growth.

  • The new studio geography

    If any of you have gone to architecture school (or know someone who went to architecture school), you’ll know that everything revolves around something called studio. Studio – that’s really all you need to say – is worth many multiples of your other classes and consumes an even greater multiple of your time. What time will you be in studio? How’s studio going? I was in studio really late last night. This is how the conversations go.

    So I was intrigued by Seth Godin’s post this morning comparing “working in a studio” to working in a factory. The latter, he says, relies on compliance: “More compliance leads to more profits. Do what you’re told, faster and cheaper, repeat.” And this was very much the narrative of the 20th century and was the model that empowered small-town America to thrive (see yesterday’s post).

    However, the studio is different. Here is how Godin defines it:

    The studio, on the other hand, is about initiative. Creativity, sure, but mostly the initiative to make a new thing, a better thing, a process that leads to better.

    It’s peer to peer. The hierarchy is mostly gone, because the tasks can be outsourced. So all that’s left is leadership.

    Initiative plus responsibility. Authority is far less important, as are the traditional measures of productivity.

    It is not difficult to tell the two apart, which is how Godin ends his post. But it is worth noting that the studio model also thrives in a different kind of geography, compared to the factory model. So not only is the studio itself a different place, it also wants to situate itself in a different kind of place. So in a way, what we are seeing today is the new studio geography.

  • Cities are labor markets

    Eduardo Porter recently published this piece in the New York Times on the “relentless economic decline” of small-town rural America. We often talk about rising income inequality, but the greater concern is the alarming rate of joblessness in many of these communities. Earning less than others is not as bad as earning nothing.

    I think the below map from the article, depicting population density by county, starts to show how uneven the economic landscape is across the US. Porter puts it this way: “This is the inescapable reality of agglomeration, one of the most powerful forces shaping the American economy over the last three decades.”

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    But, of course, we don’t really have a solution to this problem. Some are suggesting employment subsidies, such as the earned-income tax credit. While others are suggesting that we need to make it easier to build in the large blue spikes shown above. That way we’ll be able to more affordably accommodate the people who will ultimately need to move from rural to urban.

    While this latter suggestion may seem grim for small-town America, it is perhaps a reminder of what cities really are at their core: Cities are labor markets. They are the places where people come to get a job and make money.

  • One Delisle unanimously supported at Design Review Panel

    One Delisle was at the City of Toronto’s Design Review Panel today where it received unanimous support. For those of you who may not be familiar with the process, at the end of every DRP session the panel members – who are all independent design professionals – vote on the project. They can support it, support it with conditions, or they can not support it and send it back for a redesign. One Delisle received 100% support.

    There were a number of positive comments around the need for more projects like this, and for better design in general, here in Toronto. That was really nice to hear. I also liked the comment that One Delisle feels like a tall building that one might find in London. And since every tall building in London has an endearing nickname – Gherkin, Walkie-Talkie, Cheese Grater, and so on – this too deserves one. 

    So let’s find a name. I have one in mind, but I’d love to hear from you in the comment section below.

  • Uber to go public in 2019

    Last week it was announced that Uber had confidentially filed for an IPO (right after Lyft did the same). It could go public as early as Q1 of next year. And supposedly, a valuation of $120 billion is being tossed around. The company last raised money in August of this year (from Toyota) at a $76 billion valuation.

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    Here are a few other interesting figures from a WSJ article published in the fall:

    – Uber has indicated that it doesn’t expect to be profitable for at least another 3 years. This year it is expected to hit between $10 and $11 billion in revenue, compared to $7.78 billion last year.

    – First Round Capital invested about $1.6 million in Uber’s first two fundraising rounds (2010 and 2011). If the company does in fact reach a valuation of $120 billion in the public markets, that early investment will be worth $5 billion. (First Round sold some of their shares to SoftBank in January and I’m not sure if the above figure accounts for that.)

    – Over 50 companies have invested in Uber since its founding, not including a slew of individual investments from people like Jeff Bezos of Amazon.

    On a related note, Fred Wilson, who is far more knowledgeable on this topic than I, recently published a post talking about the relationship between the private and public markets and what could happen to (tech) valuations in 2019. 

    It’s a good follow-on read to the above.

    Figure: WSJ

  • Housing supply is like food supply

    A few months ago I wrote about an upcoming book by Alain Bertaud
    called, Order
    without Design: How Markets Shape Cities.     Well the book has just come out
    and CityLab just did an interview with him. 

    Bertaud has worked all around the world from Yemen to China and his experiences, particularly in places that were transitioning to market economies, lend an interesting perspective.

    I like this bit on designing in China:

    I quickly realized that if you do not have prices to guide you, you end up relying on arbitrary norms. For example, in China, the central government decided that every home must have one full hour of sunshine each day. So you would plug in the height, latitude, and angle of the sun at winter solstice for your site, and that would formulaically spit out the permitted density of housing.

    And I like the comparison he makes between food and housing supply:

    I compare it to food: You can’t solve a famine by simply mandating that everyone eat 2,000 calories a day. That’s absurd. You have to bring in more food. In the same way, cities like San Francisco have to increase the supply of floor area, and let consumers determine the size of units.

    So I just ordered a copy of his book. 

    For the rest of his interview with CityLab, click here.

  • Drone delivery in remote communities

    Toronto-based Drone Delivery Canada has just signed a $2.5 million agreement with the Moose Cree First Nation. This will bring the company’s drone delivery platform to the Moosonee and Moose Factory communities in northern Ontario (about 19 km south of James Bay).

    Here is an excerpt from a recent Techvibes article:

    “This agreement is representative of the large ‘Remote Communities’ market that we see penetrating over the next three to five years,” said Tony Di Benedetto, CEO of DDC. “The Remote Communities market is only one segment of the overall total addressable market in Canada. In addition to Canada, DDC is working with other customers around the globe to licence our FLYTE software and drone delivery technology.”

    DDC’s Sparrow drone is able to handle 5 kg (~11 pound) payloads and will be used to transport letters, parcels, medical supplies, and other general necessities. 

    This is a big deal for Moose Factory because the island can only be accessed by boat in the summer, ice road in the winter, and by helicopter during the rest of the year. And this is not a unique situation for remote communities.

    Suboptimal infrastructure and connectivity is a common problem and generally results in a higher cost of living, among other things. So this strikes me as something that should have meaningful impact on the quality of life in these communities.

  • My Focals by North fitting

    Over the weekend I went by the new North store on Ossington for the fitting of my new Focals by North glasses. According to Retail Insider, this is the first retail space in Canada that is entirely dedicated to wearable tech (shout-out to Hullmark and CBRE). Full disclosure: I am not being paid by North, but I was asked if I would accept a pair of Focals and provide my thoughts. So I will be doing that over the coming months on the blog.

    Previously known as Thalmic Labs, North is a Waterloo-based company that first attracted attention with the launch of a gesture-control armband known as Myo. What that product did was make digital interactions completely hands-free. It had strong use cases across medicine, music, and business. However, this past October the company announced that it would be moving on from Myo. Enter Focals by North. 

    Focals are custom-built eyewear with an integrated display that only the wearer can see. It is similar to, for example, BMW’s heads up display, and the idea is that it is a way for you to quickly get the information you want, without pulling out your phone and disengaging from the world. The ambition is human-centric technology that integrates seamlessly.

    Here is an example of what that display looks like (it is much better and cooler in person):

    image

    To control the display you use both your voice (the glasses have a microphone) and a 4-directional joystick called a Loop, which sits on your index finger like a ring and that you thumb. You can receive and send texts (voice to text), you can get turn-by-turn directions, you can view your appointments and the weather, and you can ask Alexa things.

    The first step in the ordering process is a fitting. And that’s what I did over the weekend. The glasses are all custom made and so they start by doing a full 3D scan of your head in a room that feels like the future. Once that’s done, you pick what frame you want, the color, and your sun clips (an essential accessory for day drinking in Trinity Bellwoods). Total cost: CAD 1,299.

    While exceptionally cool, it is premature for me to really comment on the tech at this point. I’m expecting my Focals in 8-10 weeks. But is it interesting to opine on the current state of eyewear tech.

    Most people believe that the problem with Google Glass was the fact that you had to be a Silicon Valley nerd in order to want to wear them out in public. They looked and continue to look ridiculous, which is why Snap went fashion first with their Spectacles. I have always found this product really intriguing. I want to use it. But I’ve stopped using Snapchat entirely and I don’t really have a strong use case for them.

    Snap’s Spectacles are about capture and content creation, whereas Focals are about discreetly feeding you information that you would otherwise have to pull out your phone (or watch) to view. There’s no camera on Focals. That’s not what they are about. But they are obviously fashion first.

    The question for me is whether the experience will truly be seamless and integrated, or if I’ll still be disengaged – gazing off into my glasses (space) while I ask Alexa to UberEats me a chicken shawarma wrap. I’ll let you know in about 8-10 weeks. If you’re looking for more on Focals by North, check out their website and this CNBC piece. Go Canadian tech.

  • Good vibrations

    image

    There are 614,387 bridges in the United States and 55,707 of them are thought to be structurally deficient according to the US Department of Transportation (2016). About 188 million people cross “a deficient bridge” every day in the US (also a 2016 figure).

    Inspections are often infrequent and only visual, and so MIT Senseable City Lab is currently on a mission to come up with a more scientific approach. They believe that there’s a solution in crowd-sourced data and that it’s possible to create a community-driven maintenance program.

    What they discovered through a recent study, called Good Vibrations, is that mobile phone sensors can actually pick up the natural vibrations and oscillations of a bridge. And, that a mobile sensor located within a traveling car is actually 120x more precise than fixed sensors located on the bridge.

    Part of the problem is that fixed sensors have poor spatial coverage. They are located in specific locations. Whereas mobile sensors give you data across the entire span of the bridge as someone crosses it. And if you know how a bridge normally vibrates, you can quickly tell when something is off. 

    Here’s a quick video overview of the study. And here’s what you should do if you want to get involved.

    Photo by Joseph Barrientos on Unsplash

  • Three nights only

    For this year’s Art Basel Miami Beach, artist Carsten Höller collaborated with Fondazione Prada to create a 3-night-only pop-up club called, The Prada Double Club Miami.

    By time you read this post, the pop-up is likely to be over. But it is an interesting space nonetheless.

    The installation made use of an old 1920s film studio and was comprised of two distinct spaces – hence the double club reference. 

    The interior bar and dance floor were entirely monochromatic.

    Höller wanted all color to instead come from participants within the space. 

    The exterior bar, on the other hand, was “hyper-polychromatic.”

    Perhaps some of you might find inspiration here for your next condo sales office. That would be fun.

    Photography: Casey Kelbaugh, courtesy of Fondazione Prada and via The Spaces