Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

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  • Safety and security per capita

    This is a city metric I haven’t seen before. City Observatory recently looked at the number of police officers (public) and security guards (private) per capita across American cities. They also ask a bunch of interesting questions. Why do some cities have far fewer police officers? Is high security an indicator for “anti-social capital?” (Social norms aren’t encouraging people to behave.) And do some cities simply have more cops because it is perceived to be necessary?

    Here is what they found:

    The average is about 3.3 police officers per 1,000. And in each case, city is defined as the metro area. The study relies on census data and, if we’re being precise, the data represents where people live as opposed to where they work. So some cities could be reporting a lower number simply because police officers tend to live outside of the metro area — perhaps because of housing costs. Either way, it’s interesting to consider why some cities spend a lot more on security than others and why Miami has so many security guards.

    Chart: City Observatory

  • Location over space

    This recent article about the kind of homes that “wealthy millennials” are buying is a useful reminder of just how expensive homes are in San Francisco. But it’s also interesting in that it speaks to the types of homes that people with options are deciding to buy. In other words: If you had all the money in the world, what would be your ideal home? (According to the article, there are about 618,000 people in the US between the ages of 24 and 38 who have a net worth of at least $1 million.)

    Traditionally, “luxury” has meant lots of square footage and a big lot. But as we know, that view is changing for some/many people. We are placing a greater emphasis on being closer to the city and on living in more walkable communities. The article provides a number of examples where historically desirable areas have lost ground to areas that are now popular with the under 40 set. And in some cases, there has been a complete reversal; areas have gone from being more expensive to now less expensive (on a per square foot basis).

    It would seem that being able to work from anywhere hasn’t made us forget the city.

  • Yvonne Farrell and Shelley McNamara receive the 2020 Pritzker Architecture Prize

    Yvonne Farrell and Shelley McNamara, co-founders of Grafton Architects, have just been named the 2020 laureates of the prestigious Pritzker Architecture Prize. They are the first recipients from Ireland. If you’d like to read the full press release, you can do that here. But here is a copy of the jury’s citation.

    Yvonne Farrell and Shelley McNamara have practiced architecture together for forty years in a way that clearly reflects the objectives of the Pritzker Prize: to recognize the art of architecture and consistent service to humanity as evidenced through a body of built work.

    Co-founding their professional practice, called Grafton Architects, in Dublin, Ireland in 1978, they have consistently and unhesitatingly pursued the highest quality of architecture for the specific location in which it was to be built, the functions it would house and especially for the people who would inhabit and use their buildings and spaces.

    They have an oeuvre that includes numerous educational buildings, housing and cultural and civic institutions. Pioneers in a field that has traditionally been and still is a male-dominated profession, they are also beacons to others as they forge their exemplary professional path.

    Many of their buildings are located in their home country of Ireland, but through competitions, they have won major commissions for other places around the world, such as Italy, France and Peru . With a profound understanding of place gained through their research, keen powers of observation, open and ever curious explorations and deep respect for culture and context, Farrell and McNamara are able to make their buildings respond to a setting and city most appropriately, while still being fresh and modern.

    This deep understanding of “spirit of place” means that their works enhance and improve the local community. Their buildings are “good neighbors” that seek to make a contribution beyond the boundaries of the building and to make a city work better. Their North King Street Housing in Dublin (2000) is one example of this: it creates an inner courtyard and a welcome respite from the adjacent busy streets.

    Their approach to architecture is always honest, revealing an understanding of the processes of design and construction from large scale structures to the smallest details . It is often in these details, especially in buildings with modest budgets, where a big impact can be felt . For example, the Urban Institute of Ireland (Dublin, 2002) employs what the architects call a “crafted skin” to create a visually interesting building through changes in materials responding to openings, folds, needs for shade and other concerns.

    At the same time, it employs common sense, good-practice environmental control methodologies for an efficient, sustainable building . On a particularly sensitive site in Dublin, the masterful Offices for the Department of Finance (2009) attests to their knowledge and care in the selection of materials and construction techniques with a carefully handcrafted bronze railing and gate and sanded limestone on the facades.

    The architects are skilled and successful working at many scales—from large institutional buildings to a house of only a little more than 100 square meters . Without grand or frivolous gestures, they have managed to create buildings that are monumental institutional presences when appropriate, but even so they are zoned and detailed in such a way as to produce more intimate spaces that create community within . In their large buildings such as the University Campus UTEC (2015) in Lima, Peru or the School of Economics Building (2008) at Universita Luigi Bocconi, they have achieved a human scale through the composition of spaces and volumes of different sizes . The dialogues they create between buildings and surroundings demonstrate a new appreciation of both their works and place.

    A constant in their approach, the architects have an understanding of how to design complex sections of buildings in such a way that views connect deep interior spaces with the larger exterior realm and allow natural light to penetrate and animate spaces deep inside a building . Often light streams from skylights or upper story windows throughout the interiors of their buildings, providing warmth and visual interest, helping the inhabitants easily orient themselves in the spaces, and providing the ever necessary connection to the exterior.

    For their integrity in their approach to both their buildings, as well as the way they conduct their practice, their belief in collaboration, their generosity towards their colleagues, especially as evidenced in such events as the 2018 Venice Biennale, their unceasing commitment to excellence in architecture, their responsible attitude toward the environment, their ability to be cosmopolitan while embracing the uniqueness of each place in which they work, for all these reasons and more, Yvonne Farrell and Shelley McNamara are awarded the 2020 Pritzker Architecture Prize.

    Photo: University Campus UTEC Lima, photo courtesy of Iwan Baan

  • Floodplain homes in the US are overvalued by a total of $34 billion

    This recent paper by Miyuki Hino (University of North Carolina) and Marshall Burke (Stanford) makes the case that US homes situated within floodplains are currently overvalued by a total of $34 billion. And that’s because the associated risks are not being properly accounted for in the value of these homes.

    The problem, it would seem, comes down to information. Because the discount for flood risk was found to be higher (1) for commercial buyers (presumably because they’re more sophisticated and/or have better access to information) and (2) in states where sellers must disclose flood risk (Louisiana is probably the most stringent about this).

    This feels a bit like one of those realtor commercials that tries to scare you into using one. But it does appear to demonstrate just how opaque the market can be and how information asymmetries potentially distort asset prices. Perhaps most importantly, I wonder when climate risk will get fully valued.

  • City stereotypes

    The New Yorker recently published a “daily shout” on Instagram called, How You Know You’ve Made It, by City. It is essentially a series on city stereotypes, and it’s pretty funny. Sorry Cleveland. If you can’t see the embed below, click here.

  • A study on expanding housing options in Toronto

    The City of Toronto is currently studying ways to increase housing options/supply and planning permissions in areas of the city that are designated as Neighbourhoods in the Official Plan.

    These are areas that are sometimes referred to as the “Yellowbelt”, because they are seeing very little intensification and, in a number of cases, actually losing population. (They’re also colored yellow in Toronto’s land use map.)

    Ultimately, the goal is to encourage more “missing middle” type housing forms; housing that is denser than single-family homes but smaller in scale than say mid-rise housing like Junction House.

    Here are a couple of interesting charts from the City. Based on Toronto’s Official Plan, “Neighbourhoods” make up 35.4% of the city’s land area.

    In Toronto’s Zoning By-law, the “Residential” category makes up 47.1% of the city’s land area.

    Digging deeper, 31.3% of Toronto’s total area is zoned for only detached houses — which would mean no missing middle type housing. But 15.8% of the city’s total area is already zoned to permit other types of low-rise residential buildings, such as duplexes and triplexes.

    So why isn’t more of that happening?

    As we’ve talked about before on the blog, the problem is that it is exceedingly difficult to make the math work on projects of this scale, which is why most developers don’t want to do them. The web of bureaucracy that you need to navigate in order to build anything in the city is also imposing for non-developers (and developers really).

    But to be a developer, I think you need to be an optimist. So I am going to remain hopeful that this study — and the pilot they want to do in Ward 19 — will result in a streamlined solution for housing of this scale.

    Images: City of Toronto

  • A catalyst for Westside development — but not yet

    A new 280 acre park is currently under construction in an old quarry on the westside of Atlanta. It’s called Westside Park. When it opens this spring (that’s at least the target), it will be by far the largest park in the city. But already there are concerns that this investment in new public space could be triggering “rapid gentrification” in the surrounding area.

    So earlier this month, the mayor’s office issued an executive order that put in place a 6-month moratorium on all new construction permits in the communities surrounding the park. The order read like this: “…refuse to accept new applications for rezonings, building permits for new construction, land disturbance permits, special use permits, special administrative permits, subdivisions, replattings, and lot consolidations for non-public projects.”

    The objective is to avoid displacement. And since new development means change, this is a way to stop change. (Don’t you just hate when things go and change?) The problem, of course, is that a moratorium on new housing doesn’t stop change and it does nothing to address the desire to live next to this new amenity. It only stymies the supply of new housing to meet this demand. (It’s also incongruent with the park investment being marketed as a “catalyst for new development.”)

    In fact, Joe Cortright (of City Observatory) and Jenny Schuetz (of the Brookings Institution) have both argued — either directly or indirectly — that the above move could actually increase displacement in the surrounding area; because the moratorium on new housing could simply redirect demand toward the existing housing stock. The order does seem to suggest that you can still renovate an existing property.

    I wonder if any studies have been done on the externalities associated with temporary housing supply moratoriums. If so, I would be interested in reading them.

  • Thoughts on the coronavirus

    This is an excellent article by James Hamblin about the coronavirus. He believes, along with many epidemiologists, that the disease (COVID-19) is unlikely to be contained, and may become endemic:

    The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”

    But here’s the irony. It is unlikely to be containable because, comparatively speaking, the disease isn’t as fatal as other coronaviruses. In James’ words: The virus is deadly, but not too deadly.

    As of right now, the fatality rate is believed to be less than 2%. SARS and MERS, on the other hand, were highly fatal to humans. H5N1 (avian flu), which emerged in the 90s, had/has a fatality rate of about 60%.

    One of the problems with COVID-19 is that, for many people, the symptoms are mild or even non-existent. And that is precisely why it has been so difficult to pin down. If it affected everyone equally and as severely, then it would be far more containable.

    But I am the furthest thing from an epidemiologist, so you should probably just go and read James’ article over in The Atlantic.

    John Hopkins University also has this live map showing total confirmed, total deaths, and total recovered. At the time of this post, the fatality rate looks to be about 3.4%. But if you believe that many people are asymptomatic, the denominator is probably understated.

    Naturally, we are all taking precautions, doing what we can to make our communities safe, and trying to quash this virus. And that is what we should be doing. At the same time, I found James’ article helpful at putting things into perspective.

  • The future of central London

    The Centre for London has just published an interesting report called, Core Values: The Future of Central London. Like most city centers, Central London (or the Central Activities Zone as the report calls it) punches well above its geographic weight.

    Central London occupies about 0.01% of the UK’s total landmass, but is responsible for about 10% of its economic output. It represents about 2% of London’s total footprint, but is responsible for about 40% of total employment and about 45% of economic output.

    Here’s another interesting stat:

    From 1961 to 1983, the residential population of CAZ boroughs in London fell from about 2.5 to 1.7 million. And things really didn’t begin to turnaround until the late 1980s. It took until 2018 for the population to return to 2.5 million. Makes me wonder: How concerned do you think people were in the late 1970s about housing affordability in Central London?

    To read the full report, click here.

    Chart: Centre for London

  • Field of infinity

    I am a big fan of the work of Reuben Wu. He is, among many other things, a landscape photographer. But he explores and documents his landscapes in highly creative ways. In one of his latest projects — Field of Infinity — he photographed the Bolivian landscape at night and used a modified drone (plus a slow shutter speed) to draw light objects in the night sky. The results are incredible. Here is a short video about that trip and his work. (Note: He is an ambassador for the XT Camera System.)