This past weekend, the Brazilian-Japanese coffee house, The Coffee, soft-opened at the base of Junction House (right at the corner of Dundas St W and Watkinson Ave). And it was busy! I've been eagerly awaiting this opening since it was first announced last year.
But not for any direct economic reasons — unless, of course, it reminds you that you should buy a new home at Junction House! As I mentioned before, we (the developers) no longer own this retail space. This is not our tenant.
I'm mostly excited as a proud resident of the Junction, and because I think it's a perfect fit for the building and the neighourhood. So, I would encourage you to check it out at 2720 Dundas St W. Starting today, any coffee meetings I take in the Junction will be held here.
This week, Statistics Canada reported that, for the first time in over 70 years, the country's population declined. Current estimates indicate a decline of around 102,000 people last year, leaving a total of 41,472,081 people in the country as of January 1, 2026.
The Brookings Institution recently published something called Metro Monitor 2026. It's an interactive dashboard that provides decision-makers with data on how the largest metro areas in the US performed between 2014 and 2024. You can check it out here.
As part of this analysis, they looked at the relationship between immigration and regional economic performance. More specifically, they examined how regional economies with growing immigrant populations have performed over the last decade, and how that growth has been shared across immigrant and native-born households.
To answer these questions, they looked at the change in the foreign-born share of the working-age population in the 196 largest metro areas, and then compared it to a variety of different economic markers. And what they found, not surprisingly, was that more immigrants tend to be better than fewer immigrants:
Metro areas with larger increases in the foreign-born share of their working-age population saw stronger growth in gross metropolitan product (GMP) and employment between 2014 and 2024, as well as in key prosperity metrics such as productivity and wage growth.
It increased employment rates for both native-born and foreign-born workers:
Between 2014 and 2024, employment rates in metro areas with the largest increases in their foreign-born workforce share were nearly 3 percentage points higher for both native-born and foreign-born workers than in metro areas with the smallest foreign-born workforce share increases. Put simply, metro areas with larger increases in the foreign-born share of their workforce tended to deliver stronger employment outcomes for both immigrant and native-born workers.
And it also increased median earnings, again for both native-born and foreign-born workers:
We find a similar pattern when examining changes in regional median earnings. Metropolitan economies with larger increases in the foreign-born share of their working-age population consistently recorded higher median earnings for both native-born and foreign-born workers.
This past weekend, the Brazilian-Japanese coffee house, The Coffee, soft-opened at the base of Junction House (right at the corner of Dundas St W and Watkinson Ave). And it was busy! I've been eagerly awaiting this opening since it was first announced last year.
But not for any direct economic reasons — unless, of course, it reminds you that you should buy a new home at Junction House! As I mentioned before, we (the developers) no longer own this retail space. This is not our tenant.
I'm mostly excited as a proud resident of the Junction, and because I think it's a perfect fit for the building and the neighourhood. So, I would encourage you to check it out at 2720 Dundas St W. Starting today, any coffee meetings I take in the Junction will be held here.
This week, Statistics Canada reported that, for the first time in over 70 years, the country's population declined. Current estimates indicate a decline of around 102,000 people last year, leaving a total of 41,472,081 people in the country as of January 1, 2026.
The Brookings Institution recently published something called Metro Monitor 2026. It's an interactive dashboard that provides decision-makers with data on how the largest metro areas in the US performed between 2014 and 2024. You can check it out here.
As part of this analysis, they looked at the relationship between immigration and regional economic performance. More specifically, they examined how regional economies with growing immigrant populations have performed over the last decade, and how that growth has been shared across immigrant and native-born households.
To answer these questions, they looked at the change in the foreign-born share of the working-age population in the 196 largest metro areas, and then compared it to a variety of different economic markers. And what they found, not surprisingly, was that more immigrants tend to be better than fewer immigrants:
Metro areas with larger increases in the foreign-born share of their working-age population saw stronger growth in gross metropolitan product (GMP) and employment between 2014 and 2024, as well as in key prosperity metrics such as productivity and wage growth.
It increased employment rates for both native-born and foreign-born workers:
Between 2014 and 2024, employment rates in metro areas with the largest increases in their foreign-born workforce share were nearly 3 percentage points higher for both native-born and foreign-born workers than in metro areas with the smallest foreign-born workforce share increases. Put simply, metro areas with larger increases in the foreign-born share of their workforce tended to deliver stronger employment outcomes for both immigrant and native-born workers.
And it also increased median earnings, again for both native-born and foreign-born workers:
We find a similar pattern when examining changes in regional median earnings. Metropolitan economies with larger increases in the foreign-born share of their working-age population consistently recorded higher median earnings for both native-born and foreign-born workers.
But at the same time, there are consequences to a declining population. It can result in economic stagnation and it can topple the equilibrium of pension plans. Not enough young people paying into the system. Fewer savers. Fewer spenders. Fewer innovators.
It can also reduce the soft and hard powers of a country. According to the IMF: "...some historians attribute France’s 1871 defeat in the Franco-Prussian War to the low fertility and slow rate of population growth that stemmed from early and widespread use of contraception among married couples in France."
My own simplistic view is that growth is good. We want Canadians having babies and we want the absolute best and brightest and most ambitious from around the world clamouring to come here to innovate, start companies, and grow the total economy.
The good news is this continues to be our plan.
The leading factor in Canada's current population decline is fewer non-permanent residents. That is, temporary foreign workers, a great number of whom are/were international students. As many of you know, this policy is in response to a demographic shock that the country experienced between 2022 and 2024 that, among other things, lowered productivity levels.
Going forward, the federal plan is as follows:
Dramatically reduce the number of temporary residents (international students and low-skill temporary workers). Again, this specific policy is largely responsible for the current population correction.
Stabilize permanent immigration to 380,000 people per year from 2026 to 2028 (under 1% of the population).
Admit most permanent immigrants under the "economic" classification. The target is 64% of all permanent residents by 2027. This is a class of applicants who are scored based on age (younger is better), education (smarter is better), language proficiency, and relevant work experience, with the goal of having them immediately contribute to the Canadian economy.
Target 12% Francophone permanent resident admissions outside of Quebec by 2029. (As a self-proclaimed Francophile/Quebecophile and proponent of bilingualism, I laud this effort.)
What all of this should mean is that by the end of 2026, we are expected to "burn off" the wave of temporary residents leaving the country and, by 2027, we should return to steady and manageable population growth. This is one of the reasons why I believe that 2026-2027 will be a turning point for many of our housing markets, and hopefully the start of our next economic cycle.
Cover by Robbie Palmer on Unsplash
Chart from the Globe and Mail
Once again, we're reminded that, when managed properly, immigration isn't a zero-sum game. There is a common narrative that foreign-born workers depress wages and/or take opportunities away from native-born citizens. But the data suggests that the opposite is true.
Next up (or soon up): Let's talk about Canada's now-declining population.
Cover photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash
But at the same time, there are consequences to a declining population. It can result in economic stagnation and it can topple the equilibrium of pension plans. Not enough young people paying into the system. Fewer savers. Fewer spenders. Fewer innovators.
It can also reduce the soft and hard powers of a country. According to the IMF: "...some historians attribute France’s 1871 defeat in the Franco-Prussian War to the low fertility and slow rate of population growth that stemmed from early and widespread use of contraception among married couples in France."
My own simplistic view is that growth is good. We want Canadians having babies and we want the absolute best and brightest and most ambitious from around the world clamouring to come here to innovate, start companies, and grow the total economy.
The good news is this continues to be our plan.
The leading factor in Canada's current population decline is fewer non-permanent residents. That is, temporary foreign workers, a great number of whom are/were international students. As many of you know, this policy is in response to a demographic shock that the country experienced between 2022 and 2024 that, among other things, lowered productivity levels.
Going forward, the federal plan is as follows:
Dramatically reduce the number of temporary residents (international students and low-skill temporary workers). Again, this specific policy is largely responsible for the current population correction.
Stabilize permanent immigration to 380,000 people per year from 2026 to 2028 (under 1% of the population).
Admit most permanent immigrants under the "economic" classification. The target is 64% of all permanent residents by 2027. This is a class of applicants who are scored based on age (younger is better), education (smarter is better), language proficiency, and relevant work experience, with the goal of having them immediately contribute to the Canadian economy.
Target 12% Francophone permanent resident admissions outside of Quebec by 2029. (As a self-proclaimed Francophile/Quebecophile and proponent of bilingualism, I laud this effort.)
What all of this should mean is that by the end of 2026, we are expected to "burn off" the wave of temporary residents leaving the country and, by 2027, we should return to steady and manageable population growth. This is one of the reasons why I believe that 2026-2027 will be a turning point for many of our housing markets, and hopefully the start of our next economic cycle.
Cover by Robbie Palmer on Unsplash
Chart from the Globe and Mail
Once again, we're reminded that, when managed properly, immigration isn't a zero-sum game. There is a common narrative that foreign-born workers depress wages and/or take opportunities away from native-born citizens. But the data suggests that the opposite is true.
Next up (or soon up): Let's talk about Canada's now-declining population.
Cover photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash
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