The office cyclicality is interesting to see. But of course, the point of this chart is the dramatic rise in data center construction. As of August 2025, it's about 2x retail construction and it's on track to overtake both offices and warehouses.
Will this happen and is this pace of construction sustainable? I frankly don't know. But AI and the need for more compute are obviously here to stay.
I'm reminded of something that venture capitalist Fred Wilson once wrote on his blog. His argument was that when it comes to speculative frenzies, or just new stuff in general, it's common to be directionally correct, but be off in terms of the order of magnitude.
I wouldn't be surprised if this proves to be true for AI-driven investments.
One way to shop for things is to make a list of all the things you want and/or need, and then go to a location that sells as many of those things as possible. As I understand, this is more or less what people do when they go to a place like Costco.
Another way to shop is to just order things piecemeal, and have them delivered to you when you want them and in the least amount of time possible. And it turns out that this latter option is pretty popular.
It is popular because it involves (1) not going anywhere and (2) not having to make a list and think proactively about the things you may want and/or need in the future. But it does mean that we need specific infrastructure to support this method of consumption. Generally speaking you need urban spaces close to where people live and work, and you need people to transport the goods.
I mention all of this because it has translated into two areas of concern within our cities: (1) we now have "dark spaces" that are embedded into urban areas but don't have any public-facing components and (2) we now have throngs of delivery vehicles starting to annoy local communities.
In fact, France has already responded with a new federal policy that is expected to reclassify "dark stores and "ghost kitchens" as warehouses. This is intended to give local municipalities the power to shutter these sorts of spaces. Part of the thinking is that we all did just fine before delivery apps, so why not just go back to doing what we were doing?
My own view is that this shift in consumption is here to stay. And so we would be better served by figuring out how to respond in a way that is both sensitive to communities and that maintains the vibrancy of our urban environments. We also managed without things like refrigerated food and mobile phones, but I'm pretty happy to have these tools available to me.
The office cyclicality is interesting to see. But of course, the point of this chart is the dramatic rise in data center construction. As of August 2025, it's about 2x retail construction and it's on track to overtake both offices and warehouses.
Will this happen and is this pace of construction sustainable? I frankly don't know. But AI and the need for more compute are obviously here to stay.
I'm reminded of something that venture capitalist Fred Wilson once wrote on his blog. His argument was that when it comes to speculative frenzies, or just new stuff in general, it's common to be directionally correct, but be off in terms of the order of magnitude.
I wouldn't be surprised if this proves to be true for AI-driven investments.
One way to shop for things is to make a list of all the things you want and/or need, and then go to a location that sells as many of those things as possible. As I understand, this is more or less what people do when they go to a place like Costco.
Another way to shop is to just order things piecemeal, and have them delivered to you when you want them and in the least amount of time possible. And it turns out that this latter option is pretty popular.
It is popular because it involves (1) not going anywhere and (2) not having to make a list and think proactively about the things you may want and/or need in the future. But it does mean that we need specific infrastructure to support this method of consumption. Generally speaking you need urban spaces close to where people live and work, and you need people to transport the goods.
I mention all of this because it has translated into two areas of concern within our cities: (1) we now have "dark spaces" that are embedded into urban areas but don't have any public-facing components and (2) we now have throngs of delivery vehicles starting to annoy local communities.
In fact, France has already responded with a new federal policy that is expected to reclassify "dark stores and "ghost kitchens" as warehouses. This is intended to give local municipalities the power to shutter these sorts of spaces. Part of the thinking is that we all did just fine before delivery apps, so why not just go back to doing what we were doing?
My own view is that this shift in consumption is here to stay. And so we would be better served by figuring out how to respond in a way that is both sensitive to communities and that maintains the vibrancy of our urban environments. We also managed without things like refrigerated food and mobile phones, but I'm pretty happy to have these tools available to me.
The Globe and Mail recently published an excellent article on “how e-commerce is driving a real estate revolution.” This is a topic that I’m very interested in: how online manifests itself offline.
Not surprisingly, the article talks a lot about Amazon, including their 4th warehouse in the Greater Toronto Area, which is an 850,000 square foot facility in Brampton equipped with 350-pound robots (8050 Heritage Road).
The first thing I did after reading the article was figure out the location of all of Amazon’s fulfillment centers in the GTA. Amazon doesn’t seem to publish this. But according to TaxJar, they are here (I mapped out the addresses):
There are two in Brampton at the precise location where Hwy 407 (toll route) and Hwy 401 meet. The other three are distributed along Hwy 401 in Milton and in Mississauga.
Now let’s get back to that Globe and Mail article:
- In 6 years, Amazon has leased over 2 million square feet of warehouse space in Canada.
- Toronto is the third largest warehouse market in North America. It represents 43% of Canada’s total inventory.
- Average net rents have increased 9.7% over the past year and vacancy rates have dropped to 2.7% (CBRE data). In Vancouver, those same numbers are 5.1% and 3%, respectively.
- Online shopping is thought to account for about 6.5% of all retail sales in Canada. But in Toronto, 23% of all industrial space is already e-commerce-related (CBRE data, again).
- CBRE believes that every $1 billion in new online sales per year requires an additional 1.25 million square feet of warehouse space.
- Based on online sales projections, Canada needs another 27.5 million square feet of industrial space over the next 5 years. We don’t have that much space in the pipeline.
- Clear heights are increasing for stacking purposes. Amazon’s new Brampton facility is 45 feet tall / 4 floors. 10 years ago new warehouses were 26 feet tall.
- Average sale price of warehouses in the GTA has gone from $119.35 psf to $142.19 psf over the last year.
Perhaps the most interesting takeaway from the article is the discussion around “last mile” distribution hubs. These are fulfillment centers located closer to the city, which are used to offer shorter delivery times:
“…instead of having inventory stored for days or months, these fulfilment centres will turn over their inventory in one day, sometimes twice a day.”
This is something that I addressed in my recent presentation about the “mall of the future” at B+H’s retail design charrette. Where do these physical distribution centers want to be as online sales continue to grow and delivery times continue to compress? Where’s the future growth?
According to this article, it’s going to be in “last mile” fulfillment real estate – relatively smaller spaces that are located very close or directly in the city center.
Photo by Samuel Zeller on Unsplash
The Globe and Mail recently published an excellent article on “how e-commerce is driving a real estate revolution.” This is a topic that I’m very interested in: how online manifests itself offline.
Not surprisingly, the article talks a lot about Amazon, including their 4th warehouse in the Greater Toronto Area, which is an 850,000 square foot facility in Brampton equipped with 350-pound robots (8050 Heritage Road).
The first thing I did after reading the article was figure out the location of all of Amazon’s fulfillment centers in the GTA. Amazon doesn’t seem to publish this. But according to TaxJar, they are here (I mapped out the addresses):
There are two in Brampton at the precise location where Hwy 407 (toll route) and Hwy 401 meet. The other three are distributed along Hwy 401 in Milton and in Mississauga.
Now let’s get back to that Globe and Mail article:
- In 6 years, Amazon has leased over 2 million square feet of warehouse space in Canada.
- Toronto is the third largest warehouse market in North America. It represents 43% of Canada’s total inventory.
- Average net rents have increased 9.7% over the past year and vacancy rates have dropped to 2.7% (CBRE data). In Vancouver, those same numbers are 5.1% and 3%, respectively.
- Online shopping is thought to account for about 6.5% of all retail sales in Canada. But in Toronto, 23% of all industrial space is already e-commerce-related (CBRE data, again).
- CBRE believes that every $1 billion in new online sales per year requires an additional 1.25 million square feet of warehouse space.
- Based on online sales projections, Canada needs another 27.5 million square feet of industrial space over the next 5 years. We don’t have that much space in the pipeline.
- Clear heights are increasing for stacking purposes. Amazon’s new Brampton facility is 45 feet tall / 4 floors. 10 years ago new warehouses were 26 feet tall.
- Average sale price of warehouses in the GTA has gone from $119.35 psf to $142.19 psf over the last year.
Perhaps the most interesting takeaway from the article is the discussion around “last mile” distribution hubs. These are fulfillment centers located closer to the city, which are used to offer shorter delivery times:
“…instead of having inventory stored for days or months, these fulfilment centres will turn over their inventory in one day, sometimes twice a day.”
This is something that I addressed in my recent presentation about the “mall of the future” at B+H’s retail design charrette. Where do these physical distribution centers want to be as online sales continue to grow and delivery times continue to compress? Where’s the future growth?
According to this article, it’s going to be in “last mile” fulfillment real estate – relatively smaller spaces that are located very close or directly in the city center.
Photo by Samuel Zeller on Unsplash
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