I came across this chart from Benedict Evans on LinkedIn. (I must have been doing my quarterly check-in to see what the AI models are saying.) It shows US construction value broken down by offices, retail, warehouses (industrial), and data centers.
The office cyclicality is interesting to see. But of course, the point of this chart is the dramatic rise in data center construction. As of August 2025, it's about 2x retail construction and it's on track to overtake both offices and warehouses.
Will this happen and is this pace of construction sustainable? I frankly don't know. But AI and the need for more compute are obviously here to stay.
I'm reminded of something that venture capitalist Fred Wilson once wrote on his blog. His argument was that when it comes to speculative frenzies, or just new stuff in general, it's common to be directionally correct, but be off in terms of the order of magnitude.
I wouldn't be surprised if this proves to be true for AI-driven investments.
One way to shop for things is to make a list of all the things you want and/or need, and then go to a location that sells as many of those things as possible. As I understand, this is more or less what people do when they go to a place like Costco.
Another way to shop is to just order things piecemeal, and have them delivered to you when you want them and in the least amount of time possible. And it turns out that this latter option is pretty popular.
It is popular because it involves (1) not going anywhere and (2) not having to make a list and think proactively about the things you may want and/or need in the future. But it does mean that we need specific infrastructure to support this method of consumption. Generally speaking you need urban spaces close to where people live and work, and you need people to transport the goods.
I mention all of this because it has translated into two areas of concern within our cities: (1) we now have "dark spaces" that are embedded into urban areas but don't have any public-facing components and (2) we now have throngs of delivery vehicles starting to annoy local communities.
In fact, France has already responded with a new federal policy that is expected to reclassify "dark stores and "ghost kitchens" as warehouses. This is intended to give local municipalities the power to shutter these sorts of spaces. Part of the thinking is that we all did just fine before delivery apps, so why not just go back to doing what we were doing?
