Here is a chart from Residential Club showing home price changes in America's 50 largest metro areas.

The month-over-month figure is between August and September 2025. The year-over-year figure is between September 2024 and September 2025. And the "shift since 2022 peak" is the change in home prices since each market's respective 2022 peak (not always the same date apparently).

A number of things stand out.

The month-over-month figures do not look encouraging. The vast majority of markets have gone negative. Of course, one month does not make a trend. The year-over-year column (which is how this table is sorted) looks more balanced, but the national average is still at 0%.

The most prominent outliers in the negative direction are New Orleans (which has been uniquely flat since the start of the pandemic in March 2020), San Francisco and Phoenix (which have both seen a double digit percentage drop since the peak), and Austin (which is down over 25% since the peak).

Austin is a prime example of what happens when you bring a lot of new housing supply to a market — prices come down. Earlier this year we spoke about apartment rents being down 22% from their August 2023 peak. These effects are also being heightened by increased outmigration from the city (previously the fastest growing US metro area).

Back to the office, I guess.

Even with the declines since 2022, most markets remain up significantly, with many smaller markets like Buffalo and Hartford continuing to show strong year-over-year gains. It is interesting to me that over 5 years later, we are still working through the market distortions brought about by the pandemic. The market is searching for a new equilibrium.

When interest rates are low, people generally want to buy more highly-levered assets, such as real estate. This, of course, makes perfect sense, because lower rates mean more buying power. But how badly someone wants to buy more real estate should, at least in theory, depend on their particular situation.

If you're buying a pre-construction home, the current rate should matter less than what it might be in the future when it comes time to close (usually you can only lock in a rate for so long). That said, lower rates can help people feel richer because it buoys the value of their other assets/investments. So in this regard, low rates do help the pre-construction market.

On the other hand, if you're buying a home to immediately close on, then current rates matter a great deal. This is the rate that you are going to be paying. However, in Canada, the typical term for a fixed-rate mortgage is 5 years. Meaning that after 5 years the rate resets to whatever market is at that time. So eventually, the mortgage does become an adjustable-rate one.

In the US, this isn't the case. The most popular mortgage is a 30-year fixed-rate loan, meaning the rate stays the same for the entire 30-year period. What this means is that Americans should -- again, in theory -- want to buy more real estate -- the most -- when rates are low. That's the time to back up the truck and lock in a sweet rate for the next three decades.

Here is a chart from Residential Club showing home price changes in America's 50 largest metro areas.

The month-over-month figure is between August and September 2025. The year-over-year figure is between September 2024 and September 2025. And the "shift since 2022 peak" is the change in home prices since each market's respective 2022 peak (not always the same date apparently).

A number of things stand out.

The month-over-month figures do not look encouraging. The vast majority of markets have gone negative. Of course, one month does not make a trend. The year-over-year column (which is how this table is sorted) looks more balanced, but the national average is still at 0%.

The most prominent outliers in the negative direction are New Orleans (which has been uniquely flat since the start of the pandemic in March 2020), San Francisco and Phoenix (which have both seen a double digit percentage drop since the peak), and Austin (which is down over 25% since the peak).

Austin is a prime example of what happens when you bring a lot of new housing supply to a market — prices come down. Earlier this year we spoke about apartment rents being down 22% from their August 2023 peak. These effects are also being heightened by increased outmigration from the city (previously the fastest growing US metro area).

Back to the office, I guess.

Even with the declines since 2022, most markets remain up significantly, with many smaller markets like Buffalo and Hartford continuing to show strong year-over-year gains. It is interesting to me that over 5 years later, we are still working through the market distortions brought about by the pandemic. The market is searching for a new equilibrium.

When interest rates are low, people generally want to buy more highly-levered assets, such as real estate. This, of course, makes perfect sense, because lower rates mean more buying power. But how badly someone wants to buy more real estate should, at least in theory, depend on their particular situation.

If you're buying a pre-construction home, the current rate should matter less than what it might be in the future when it comes time to close (usually you can only lock in a rate for so long). That said, lower rates can help people feel richer because it buoys the value of their other assets/investments. So in this regard, low rates do help the pre-construction market.

On the other hand, if you're buying a home to immediately close on, then current rates matter a great deal. This is the rate that you are going to be paying. However, in Canada, the typical term for a fixed-rate mortgage is 5 years. Meaning that after 5 years the rate resets to whatever market is at that time. So eventually, the mortgage does become an adjustable-rate one.

In the US, this isn't the case. The most popular mortgage is a 30-year fixed-rate loan, meaning the rate stays the same for the entire 30-year period. What this means is that Americans should -- again, in theory -- want to buy more real estate -- the most -- when rates are low. That's the time to back up the truck and lock in a sweet rate for the next three decades.