Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.
This is a good follow-up to my recent post about the barriers to developing mid-rise here in Toronto. I have just learned (thanks to Michael Mortensen) that Vancouver has proposed some specific zoning changes that are intended to increase the supply of new rental housing.
Oddly enough, some of these proposed changes are consistent with what I put forward in my post and include 1) streamlining the development approvals process and 2) simplifying the allowable built form. i.e. Fewer step-backs.
Here’s a capture from the report that went to City Council:
The report is dated May 2020 and I truthfully don’t know the current status of these proposed changes. I’m sure Michael would have all of the details. But regardless, the report very clearly acknowledges that lengthy entitlement timelines are a barrier to new rental housing, as are more complicated building forms. Speed and simplicity can go a long way.
One, there are silver linings to this pandemic. And one of them is that it has forced us to rethink how we allocate public space and how we engage with it. It is incredible seeing Toronto right now with so many outdoor patios in full swing. Why eat inside when you can eat outside? We should have been doing this all along.
Two, the transformation of Toronto’s Yonge Street cannot happen fast enough. We are sorely missing a pedestrianized spine through the middle of our downtown. This portion of Yonge Street currently looks like shit and I know that we can do much better.
Think La Rambla in Barcelona. Grafton Street in Dublin. Lincoln Road in Miami Beach. These are the streets that seem to always draw you in. They are places where public life can play out. I’m pretty sure that I have never once visited any of these cities and not walked these streets.
Thankfully Yonge Street’s transformation is underway. So let’s make it truly remarkable and one of the most beautiful streets in the world. That should be the bar we set for ourselves.
Tangible, which is a Vancouver-based art and design studio, has just unveiled its latest “immersive experience.” It’s called Parasol and it can be found in downtown Vancouver in front of the Bentall Centre near the intersection of Dunsmuir and Burrard. An illuminated canopy-type structure, the 40 fins that make up each Parasol are equipped with LEDs and are designed to mimic the underbelly of a mushroom. If you can’t see the embedded video above, click here.
I am a big fan of urban lighting and I have long felt that we don’t do nearly enough to light our cities in ways that are fun and playful and that promote a stronger sense of place. This is particularly true during the winter months where, in cities like Vancouver, the sun sets before many people even leave work. So I am sharing Parasol with all of you today as a kind of call to action: Let’s be more fun with our cities. This is a great example for how to do that.
In the past two decades, about 400 million people moved into China’s cities — so more than the entire population of the United States
By 2035, about 70% of China’s entire population is expected to be urban (up from 60% today and up from 30% two decades ago)
To accommodate this scale of growth, China’s national urban development approach has shifted to something that now revolves around city clusters, or megalopolises (term coined by French geographer Jean Gottmann back in the 1950s to describe the Boston-Washington corridor in the Northeastern US)
By 2035, there are expected to be five major city clusters (see above)
One of the reasons for this is to improve cooperation across the various clusters — less competition and less redundancy
But it’s also about creating smaller more manageable cities — is this what one needs to do after a certain scale, go polycentric?
To service these clusters, China is rolling out a network of 16 new high-speed rail lines
By 2035, China expects to have 200,000 kilometers of rail, with a third of it being high-speed — assuming this happens, China will be home to 60% of the world’s high-speed rail coverage
Current cost estimates for the construction of this network comes out to about US$150 million per kilometer
1-2-3 Rule: The plan is that everyone should be able to get around a city within 1 hour; a city cluster within 2 hours; and travel between the country’s clusters inside of 3 hours
I have come to the realization that I don’t get nearly enough emails throughout the day (sarcasm), and so I’ve just subscribed to Overview’s daily post.
Overview is a company that uses satellite and aerial imagery to show how humans and natural forces are shaping the earth. In addition to a daily post, their work includes stories, books, prints, and various other projects and collaborations. It’s pretty cool stuff.
One example of a partnership is this one here with ArchDaily, where they look at urban block patterns around the world. Everywhere from Barcelona to Belo Horizonte. I think many of you will enjoy flipping through these aerials.
And if you’re interested in this topic (you know, urban morphology), you may also enjoy this book by Ildefons Cerdà called, The General Theory of Urbanization 1867. Cerdà, and his work, were instrumental in shaping Barcelona at a time when the word “urbanization” didn’t even really exist.
Benedict Evans asks some great questions in this recent post about ecommerce penetration. Instead of just looking at the product itself and/or the way in which we buy it (online versus offline, for example), he focuses on the logistics model that accompanies the transaction.
What can be parceled and shipped via Amazon? What can be delivered using a bicycle? What requires some sort of special delivery or collection method?
The point he is making is that different things need to happen for a new fridge to make it to your home, compared to say a Chipotle burrito. And these differences matter when it comes to how we should be thinking about ecommerce and the real estate in our cities.
Personally, I find it helpful to reframe the questions in this way.
Here’s an excerpt from the post:
But if I buy online and then drive to the store to collect it, is that different to phoning and reserving it? We didn’t have a statistics category for ‘telephone ordering’. If I use an app to order pizza instead of phoning the restaurant, has that become ‘ecommerce’ or is it still pizza delivery? 30 years ago, if I drove to Walmart instead of walking to a neighbourhood store, or drove to Best Buy instead of going to a department store, we didn’t call that ‘car-based commerce’. So is this a tech question, or a retailing question, or an urbanism question?
I was searching for a location this morning on Google Maps and I came across the “popular times” chart that many of you are probably familiar with. It shows you how busy the location you’re looking at tends to be throughout the day. But this time around, I noticed a pulsing “live” dot and it got me wondering: How live is live?
Google collects this data from of our phones.
It is aggregated and anonymized Location History data from anyone who has opted in on their Google Account. If you’re using Google Maps and have your location services set to “always”, you can actually see a timeline of the places you’ve visited — even if you haven’t explicitly navigated to them (see above).
So the short answer is that the live data is really live. If there’s a spike in the busyness of a particular venue — one that doesn’t match historical busyness patterns — the Google network can pick it up.
I’m fascinated by this kind of city data because I see it as part of the future of city building. Why not use more data to inform the way in which we plan and build our cities. Retail data, traffic data, migratory patterns, population densities — all of this and more is now available to us.
Here are two charts from a recent blog post by Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development. The charts compare residential building permits issued for ground-related housing vs. apartment suites.
Over the last two quarters (Q4 2020 and Q1 2021), the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) issued a record (all-time record?) number of permits: 39,734 housing units. This represents a 56% year-over-year increase.
The biggest contributor to this increase is, not surprisingly, apartment units. These permits saw a 73.6% year-over-year increase. There’s simply no other way to deliver this amount of new housing — at least in the context of the GGH. You have to go up.
But given the price increases that we have seen across the region for ground-related housing, Ryerson’s CUR concludes that there must be a strong home buyer preference that is simply not being met by the amount of low-rise supply we are delivering.
Notwithstanding this potential mismatch, I don’t see things changing anytime soon.
I attended the above talk last night over Zoom. (Shoutout to Michael Mortensen for inviting Slate’s development team and for helping to moderate the Q&A.) The talk was a conversation between Larry Beasley (former Director of Planning for the City of Vancouver) and Theresa O’Donnell (the newly appointed Director of Planning for the City of Vancouver). Prior to this, Theresa was the director of planning for cities such as Las Vegas, Nevada, and Arlington, Texas.
I’d like to point out two comments that she made last night that I found interesting.
The first is that community meetings over Zoom actually aren’t all that bad. And the reason that they’re not all that bad is that they tend to draw out larger crowds (they are easier to attend), and so the feedback on development applications tends to be a bit more inclusive / representative. I agree with this overall view and I’ve been arguing for years (here on the blog) that the typical approach to community engagement is pretty much broken. The opinions become lopsided when you erect too many barriers to participation.
The second point has to do with the amount of land in Vancouver (and other North American cities) that is dedicated to low-rise housing. It’s too much and it’s going to need to be addressed in order to increase overall housing supply and to chip away at the housing affordability problem. This won’t be news to this audience, but it’s interesting to see how widespread this belief has become. Of course, the big questions remain: How gentle should gentle density be? How much intensification should these neighborhoods see?
I also appreciated her comment that it’s pure lunacy (my words, not hers) to have higher order transit lines running through mostly low-rise neighborhoods. We need much higher densities to sustainably support these kinds of investments in infrastructure. For us Torontonians, a good example would be (most of) the underdeveloped Bloor-Danforth subway line, though there are other culprits.
Benjamin Tal — CIBC’s Deputy Chief Economist — is seemingly everywhere. And earlier today, he was delivering an annual economic update at an online event hosted by Brattys LLP (our condo lawyers) in partnership with CIBC. Below are a handful of slides that I found interesting and that I tweeted out during the event.
All of our personal risk curves changed during this pandemic. When the first wave hit, we all had no idea how bad this was going to be and what to expect. And so we all stayed home and washed our hands and our groceries. That changed with each subsequent wave. And now we’re all ready and anxious to be done with this.
Tal referred to this as one of the most unequal recessions we’ve ever seen. If you had a high paying job, you probably kept it. And after you stopped spending money on eating out, entertainment, travel, and watching the Leafs lose in person, you likely had a meaningfully higher savings rate. That has created some $100 billion of “excess cash” sitting on the sidelines.
This cash wants to be spent and I think we’re going to see it flying out the door in the second half of this year. Much of it will also flow into services, which should help to prop up the hardest hit segments of the economy. So while there has been some real pain, many are expecting the economy to snap back pretty quickly. Get ready for some euphoria in the second half of this year.
This last slide is particularly relevant to the kind of things we often talk about on this blog. It is essentially showing the increased demand for housing outside of the city during this pandemic (as of Q4 2020).
A flatter line (Vancouver, Calgary) indicates that year-over-year price growth was less affected by “distance from the city center.” On the other hand, a steeper line (Toronto, Ottawa) indicates that price growth was stronger the more you moved outward from the core. In the case of Toronto, it was nearly 20% YoY when you got about 60-70 kilometers out of the city.
But it’s important to keep in mind that the core of Toronto still grew at about 5% year-over-year. About the same as in Vancouver. And in the case of Ottawa, the number looks to be about 17.5% in the city center. These are meaningful numbers and not the kind of symptoms you would expect to see from downtowns in the middle of a death spiral.
I would argue, as I have many times before, that this last chart is the result of short-term phenomena. I bet we’ll see a number of these pitches reverse by the time Q4 2021 arrives.
