How the Gordie Howe International Bridge came to be is a city and nation-building story worth telling. The Windsor-Detroit crossing is the busiest commercial border crossing in North America. It handles about one-third of the trade between Canada and the US, or about $1 billion per day, much of which passes over the Ambassador Bridge.
This is problematic for a few reasons.
One, there are concerns about capacity. Two, the bridge is, unfortunately, in the wrong place and doesn't offer direct highway-to-highway access. A truck coming off the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor has to pass through something like 17 traffic lights before reaching Highway 401. And third, and most importantly, the bridge is privately owned.
So, at some point, various people in government got together and said, "Hey, this bridge is pretty critical to our respective economies, it might be in our national interests to have a publicly owned bridge."
The federal government of Canada reportedly tried to buy the bridge in 2009, but the late Manuel Moroun wanted too much for it, and a deal was not struck. So then, in 2012, the Canadian and US governments approved the construction of a new bridge, now nearing completion and called the Gordie Howe International Bridge.
However, a second river crossing meant that Moroun would no longer have a monopoly, and so, an aggressive lobbying campaign was mounted. It was so effective that the bridge almost got canceled and funding for it became a "third rail" in Michigan politics. To save the project, the following deal was struck:
Canada pays 100% of the ~C$6.4 billion cost to build the bridge.
From the outset, the bridge is a joint binational asset owned equally by the Government of Canada and the State of Michigan, even though Canada is financing the entire project.
Construction jobs and materials are sourced from both sides of the border.
Oversight of the bridge is handled by the International Authority, a board with equal representation (3 members from Canada, 3 from Michigan).
Canada receives 100% of the toll revenue until it recoups its costs; after that, toll revenue will be shared with Michigan.
In other words, the only way this deal got done was (1) for Michigan not to spend any money on it and (2) for Canada to finance Michigan. This was the solution to dysfunctional politics, where individual interests trump the greater good. I have not looked into and modeled the exact terms under which Canada is financing Michigan, but let's hope that taxpayers are being fairly compensated for bringing this solution.
Regardless, there's no doubt that this is a crucial nation-building project for both Canada and the US. It will be an exciting moment for our countries when it opens and people and goods begin to flow. Based on the current status of construction, my understanding is that this will happen early this year. It's basically ready.
Cover photo from Gordie Howe International Bridge
Last week, the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority kicked off procurement for the new Roberts Bank Terminal 2 project by issuing a request for qualification (RFQ). Bidders now have until September 25, 2025 to submit their qualifications with the hopes of eventually being selected to deliver this "nation-building project" in the Lower Mainland of BC.
The contract will include the delivery of an approximately 100-hectare marine landmass (~247 acres), 35-hectare widened causeway, 1,300-meter wharf structure and berth pocket, and expanded tug basin. And when complete by the mid-2030s, the new terminal is expected to create more than 17,000 well-paying long-term jobs, unlock $100 billion in new trade capacity, and contribute somewhere around $3 billion in annual GDP.
Here's a rendering of the new marine landmass:
The Port of Vancouver is the largest port in Canada by tonnage and TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units). It's also one of the largest in North America. This expansion is expected to increase its capacity by up to 50%, which could have it leap ahead of several major US ports by the time it's complete in the mid-30s. That could place it among the top 4 container ports in North America.
It would be hard to overstate the importance of this project for Canada. The economic center of gravity for the world is steadily moving toward East Asia. In the 1980s, if you were to map and drop a pin at this economic center — according to GDP — it would have landed in the North Atlantic (between the US and Europe). By 2030, this economic center is projected to be near the border of India and China.
Already, China is Canada's second largest trading partner (after the US). And over 60% of the container trade flowing through Vancouver is transpacific. More specifically, it is trade with China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India. If we don't expand our port capacity and if we allow our container supply chain to become bottlenecked, well then these containers will simply shift south to the US West Coast. It's that simple.
Though this project was approved by the federal and provincial governments in 2023, it has faced stiff opposition from local community groups and environmentalists. This is partly why it took approximately 10 years. The Federal Environmental Assessment process began in 2013. And it wasn't until April 2023 that the feds granted approval with a list of 370 legally binding environmental conditions.
What this means is that by the time this project is (hopefully) complete in the mid-30s, it will have taken at least two decades! And perhaps even longer knowing how construction works. This is far too long, which is obviously why we are working to make changes to how we, as a country, green light important nation-building projects. There's no question that this is one of them, and so today I think it's important to celebrate this milestone.
It's time to build, Canada. And as fast as possible.
We all know what happened this week:
Donald Trump’s decision on April 2 2025 to enact sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on US trade partners will go down as one of the greatest acts of self-harm in American economic history. They will wreak untold damage on households, businesses and financial markets across the world, upending a global economic order that America benefited from and helped to create.
We also know it was based on highly questionable math:
His “reciprocal” levies amount to a back-of-the-envelope calculation. They take trade partners’ US trade deficit in goods as a share of imports from that country, and then divide it by two. This is not a calibrated attempt to equalise tariff and non-tariff barriers facing US exporters, perceived or otherwise. It is, however, a reckless repudiation of all trade agreements the US has signed, as well as a deeply flawed plan to attract foreign manufacturing investment.
So what happens next?
Assuming this behavior persists, the US will continue to isolate itself from global trade, and the rest of the world will pivot and quickly move to trade more freely among themselves. This maybe isn't as problematic as some might think. Today, the US represents about 13.5% of global goods imports, which is down from almost 20% in 2000. And the biggest drivers of global growth are now China and the Euro area.
To that end, here's a fascinating study from IMD Business School that looked at how long it will take for various trading partners to completely wean themselves off of the US. And to do this, they looked at non-US import growth for the 10-year period from 2012 to 2022, and then extrapolated. This is what they learned:
What this chart says is that by the end of this year, some 70 US trading partners could, in theory, replace the loss of the US export market so long as non-US growth continues as it did in the past. And by 2039, the number jumps to over 140 trading parties. 2039 is obviously a long ways away, but I think it's noteworthy that year one in this specific chart already starts with 70.
Importantly, Canada does not fall within this initial bucket. Based on the study, we are in the danger zone. That is, exports to the US make up more than 10% of our GDP and it will take more than 10 years for full export recovery. But again, this is based on historic non-US growth. So all this means is that the status quo cannot continue; we need to dramatically increase this growth rate and do it as quickly as possible.
I hope our leaders recognize the urgency of this, because nothing can be taken for granted when it comes to the US right now. We need to be hyper focused on full trade recovery as soon as possible. Canada needs to be open for business to the world.