Last week was "forum week" in Toronto. (That is, it was the Toronto Real Estate Forum.) And as is the case every year, Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC, opened up the event with his usual macro view of the world. For those of you who missed it (as I did), here are some of his key points (via RENX):

• The Bank of Canada's overnight rate will ultimately/likely settle into the 2.75-3% range (currently it sits at 5%). He expects rates to start coming down this summer.

• Inflation is down, but we're not yet at the 2% target. The "last mile" is always the toughest.

• But as we know, the BofC will take a recession over high inflation, any day.

• The mortgage market has fallen faster than in the early 90s recession. Tal said that the residential real estate market in Canada is right now facing "the biggest test" since then.

• Canada is in what he calls a "per capita recession". But for the million or so immigrants that the country accepted over the last year, we'd be in a full-blown official recession.

• Finally, he called this correction in the housing market both "real" and "healthy"; he spoke about normalcy returning in 1-2 years; and he posited that the market will be "crazy" when it does return because of a supply deficit.

This last point is an important one. New housing supply is mostly shut off right now. I say mostly because there are obviously still projects under construction, and there have been and there will continue to be some successful launches. But by and large, most developers are waiting right now, principally because the absorption isn't there. They have no other choice.

But Canada continues to grow. People from around the world continue to want to move here. And there continues to be a need for a lot more new housing. So when the market does return -- and it, of course, will -- there is going to be a supply-demand imbalance. And as is always the case in real estate, there will be a lag in responding to this imbalance.

This is what Tal means by "crazy".

Photo by Wiktor Karkocha on Unsplash

I am moderating a panel at the Toronto Real Estate Forum later this year (it's on December 2 to be exact). The topic is innovation in development. There is a great panel of speakers (more info here) and the plan right now is to cover everything from new design and construction approaches to the rise of crypto and blockchains. Topics that are all near and dear to this blog.

But we are still in the early stages of planning and I haven't yet figured out what the questions to the panel will be. So I thought it would be interesting to hear from all of you: What would you say are the most important topics to cover when it comes to innovation in development? What's next for our industry, or what should be next for our industry?

If you have any thoughts, please leave a comment below. That way everyone can see them. Supposedly this is one of the most asked for topics at the real estate forum, and so it's clearly top of mind for many people.

I’m off this week to South Florida to check out Art Basel (among other things). This week isn’t a great week to be leaving the city since it’s the Toronto Real Estate Forum and lots of people are coming to the city for that. But I’ve wanted to go to Art Basel for over a decade, so it was about time I did that.

I also decided to pick up the new Monocle Travel Guide to Miami. This is the 8th city that they’ve covered and, as you might know from reading this blog, I’m a big fan of Monocle. (I’m still waiting for the Toronto edition, guys.)

As part of this guide launch – which was timed to coincide with Art Basel Miami Beach – they also released a short video that is worth watching.

When most people think of Miami they probably think of sun and flash. And that is certainly part of the DNA of the city. But Miami has also grown into a global city with important and extensive connections to Latin America. It’s also an incredible place for those who love art, architecture, and design. If you watch the Monocle video, I’m sure you’ll feel that. 

Miami is absolutely one of my favorite cities.

Last week was "forum week" in Toronto. (That is, it was the Toronto Real Estate Forum.) And as is the case every year, Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC, opened up the event with his usual macro view of the world. For those of you who missed it (as I did), here are some of his key points (via RENX):

• The Bank of Canada's overnight rate will ultimately/likely settle into the 2.75-3% range (currently it sits at 5%). He expects rates to start coming down this summer.

• Inflation is down, but we're not yet at the 2% target. The "last mile" is always the toughest.

• But as we know, the BofC will take a recession over high inflation, any day.

• The mortgage market has fallen faster than in the early 90s recession. Tal said that the residential real estate market in Canada is right now facing "the biggest test" since then.

• Canada is in what he calls a "per capita recession". But for the million or so immigrants that the country accepted over the last year, we'd be in a full-blown official recession.

• Finally, he called this correction in the housing market both "real" and "healthy"; he spoke about normalcy returning in 1-2 years; and he posited that the market will be "crazy" when it does return because of a supply deficit.

This last point is an important one. New housing supply is mostly shut off right now. I say mostly because there are obviously still projects under construction, and there have been and there will continue to be some successful launches. But by and large, most developers are waiting right now, principally because the absorption isn't there. They have no other choice.

But Canada continues to grow. People from around the world continue to want to move here. And there continues to be a need for a lot more new housing. So when the market does return -- and it, of course, will -- there is going to be a supply-demand imbalance. And as is always the case in real estate, there will be a lag in responding to this imbalance.

This is what Tal means by "crazy".

Photo by Wiktor Karkocha on Unsplash

I am moderating a panel at the Toronto Real Estate Forum later this year (it's on December 2 to be exact). The topic is innovation in development. There is a great panel of speakers (more info here) and the plan right now is to cover everything from new design and construction approaches to the rise of crypto and blockchains. Topics that are all near and dear to this blog.

But we are still in the early stages of planning and I haven't yet figured out what the questions to the panel will be. So I thought it would be interesting to hear from all of you: What would you say are the most important topics to cover when it comes to innovation in development? What's next for our industry, or what should be next for our industry?

If you have any thoughts, please leave a comment below. That way everyone can see them. Supposedly this is one of the most asked for topics at the real estate forum, and so it's clearly top of mind for many people.

I’m off this week to South Florida to check out Art Basel (among other things). This week isn’t a great week to be leaving the city since it’s the Toronto Real Estate Forum and lots of people are coming to the city for that. But I’ve wanted to go to Art Basel for over a decade, so it was about time I did that.

I also decided to pick up the new Monocle Travel Guide to Miami. This is the 8th city that they’ve covered and, as you might know from reading this blog, I’m a big fan of Monocle. (I’m still waiting for the Toronto edition, guys.)

As part of this guide launch – which was timed to coincide with Art Basel Miami Beach – they also released a short video that is worth watching.

When most people think of Miami they probably think of sun and flash. And that is certainly part of the DNA of the city. But Miami has also grown into a global city with important and extensive connections to Latin America. It’s also an incredible place for those who love art, architecture, and design. If you watch the Monocle video, I’m sure you’ll feel that. 

Miami is absolutely one of my favorite cities.