From the outset, people have been predicting that the internet would become a decentralizing force for cities. That is, technology would allow us to spread out and work from anywhere -- perhaps from a small mountain town in the BC interior. While working from home (WFH) and working from anywhere (WFA) does appear to be on the rise, it hasn't made cities irrelevant. (US Census data from 2018 estimates that only about 5.2% of Americans work entirely from home.) In fact, the "new economy" seems to have made superstar cities, such as London, seemingly even more important. It has concentrated economic activity; so much so that we're searching for ways to spread out income and wealth more evenly.
But could it be that the technology simply wasn't there yet? Fred Wilson posited on his blog today that right now might be video conferencing's moment. Between not wanting to travel (coronavirus, carbon footprint, time, etc...) and advancements in the actual technology, companies such as Zoom are changing the way people and companies engage over long distances. It is happening in our offices. And come to think of it, there are probably a bunch of meetings that I could and should switch over to Zoom. I'm not yet convinced that it will become a decentralizing force for cities. But it does seem to be empowering less travel and more flexibility.
Photo by Nastuh Abootalebi on Unsplash
If you had a free 24/7 chauffeur to drive you anywhere you wanted, do you think that would impact where you lived, worked, and played?
Put differently, if you were relieved from actually having to contend with traffic yourself and if you never had to worry about parking and/or drinking and driving, would you be more inclined to live further out of the city to get bigger and cheaper housing?
This is the question I tried to ask in a Twitter poll this morning:
If you had a free chauffeur, would you be inclined to live further out of the city to get bigger, cheaper housing?
— Brandon G. Donnelly (@donnelly_b)
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Personally, I think that this scenario would impact my behaviour, only slightly. I would certainly take advantage of the free chauffeur, but I would not be more inclined to live 1 or maybe even 2 hours of the city.
Sure, I would be able to get more real estate, but I wouldn’t want to sit in a car every morning – even if I wasn’t the one driving. Maybe I’d be more inclined to have a cottage out of the city, but I can’t imagine a big commute. In my view, minimizing commute times is one of the most effective ways to up your quality of life.
I’m thinking about all of this because of this TechCrunch article, arguing that technologies such as driverless vehicles and VR (for telecommuting) will soon cause rapid decentralization. This reminds me of what was said during the dot com era. Real estate was out of favor and it was all about tech.
Though I am sure that there are technological impacts that you or I cannot foresee right now, I think it’s important to remember that people live in cities for many different reasons. It’s not only for access to a labor market, it’s also for access to a dating market, as well as other things that involve people coming together. I believe that we are inherently social beings. And technology is not going to make that disappear overnight.
I would be curious to see how you all feel about this topic. Please leave a comment below so we can discuss.