The Frank Gehry-designed Grand LA is a prominent mixed-use development in downtown Los Angeles that sits across from the celebrated Walt Disney Concert Hall (which was also designed by Gehry). Developed by Related, the project occupies an entire city block and contains a 305-room hotel by Hilton, 347 luxury rental apartments, 89 affordable apartments, and over 164,000 sf of retail space.
According to Bloomberg, most of the project is doing quite well. The hotel occupancy rate is at 69%, the hotel restaurant is busy, and the residential is more than 95% leased. The problem is the retail.
Since the project opened in 2022, most of it has gone unleased. Though two new anchors were just announced: an AI museum called Dataland and a permanent home for the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, which runs an executive MBA program in LA.
But these aren't traditional retail tenants. And it's almost certainly not what was being modeled when the project broke ground in 2019. Back then, everyone was still going into the nearby offices. And those humans would have brought foot traffic. This is one of the tricky things about development — you end up building through different macro environments.
But even in the best of times, it's generally hard to say with exact precision what will be successful. That's development. If there's comparable product, then you can comp against that (less risk). But if there isn't (more risk), you're faced with the question: Does comparable product not exist because there's no market for it, or does it not exist simply because nobody has done it yet?
If you're developing, it's because you believe the latter.
The New York Post has some interesting articles, here and here, on the growing retail vacancy problem in NYC. (Thank you Michael for the link in the comments this week.)
The vacancy rate on Amsterdam Avenue in the Upper West Side is said to be around 27% and it is said to be around 20% on a stretch of Broadway in Soho. It has become such a problem that Mayor Bill de Blasio wants to implement some sort of retail vacancy tax:
“I am very interested in fighting for a vacancy fee or a vacancy tax that would penalize landlords who leave their storefronts vacant for long periods of time in neighborhoods because they are looking for some top-dollar rent but they blight neighborhoods by doing it,” he said on WNYC. “That is something we could get done through Albany.”
But this is based on the assumption that greedy landlords are simply holding out for exorbitant rents. It doesn’t consider the fact that, maybe, there is simply too much retail space:
Only a few grasp the true scope of the problem. Vornado Realty Trust titan Steven Roth said we can only cure the national plague through “the closing and evaporation” of up to 30 percent of the weakest space — which would take five years.
All of this, of course, has me thinking about the future of ground floor main street retail. What are your thoughts?