Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

Category: Mobility

  • Thoughts on Autonomy Day

    This past Monday, Tesla held an event for its investors called “Autonomy Day.” It was livestreamed, but if you missed it, here’s the video. It’s almost 4 hours long, though the first hour is just footage of Tesla vehicles driving around. I’m assuming it was background content.

    I’ll be honest in that I haven’t watched it all. But there’s a lot here if you want to get into the inner workings of how their self-driving cars work. Musk also promises, at the event, that Tesla will have level 5 autonomy ready by the middle of next year (2020). At that level, you will no longer need to pay attention to the road as a driver.

    Along with this autonomy, the company plans to start rolling out “robotaxis” and a ride-hailing app that will allow owners to rent out their cars. Musk is predicting that this could generate upwards of $30,000 in profit per year for owners. Of course, at this point, nobody really believes any of these promises. Musk is notorious for overselling.

    But let’s imagine that robotaxis are the future. Maybe it won’t happen by the middle of 2020. But it will happen at some point.

    If taxis are automated machines that drive people around all day and then go and park somewhere during off-peak times, where do they want to go and park? Does autonomy all of a sudden disconnect the locations of owners and parking, because your car will simply come to you when you need it?

    And what do these feature mean for parking supply? Presumably (and we have talked about this before on this blog), you need less parking and it wants to be in locations where the real estate values are less. But because of this, I bet that we’re going to need to start — and get really good at — pricing road usage.

    What are your thoughts?

  • A subway network at the scale of a country

    The Hyperloop space has a number of competing companies that are all trying to figure out how to move people (between cities) in low-pressure tubes at nearly the speed of sound (1,234.8 km/h). For what it’s worth, Virgin Hyperloop One, which was founded in 2014, has supposedly completed the most testing and raised the most money ($295 million as of December 2017).

    This morning I was reading up on the Toronto-based TransPod, which was founded in 2015 by Sebastien Gendron and Dr. Ryan Janzen. They raised a $15 million seed round from an Italian tech group in 2016 and are close on another $50 million round right now. Following this, they’ll look be looking for a few hundred million. They seem encouraged by where Canada’s Strategic Innovation Fund has been placing money.

    Supposedly, their biggest competitive advantage is cost. The company estimates their cost per kilometer to be about $25 million, which would put the cost of a Toronto-Montreal link at around $15 billion. This is not cheap, but it is allegedly cheaper. The travel time between these two cities could then be as short as 40 minutes.

    Virgin Hyperloop One has been similarly looking at a Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal line, as it would stitch together about 25% of Canada’s population. But apparently the federal government recommended that TransPod instead look at a line that sits entirely within one province — at least at the start.

    So the company has gone ahead and secured a 10-kilometer parcel of land in Alberta that will eventually form part of a future connection between Calgary and Edmonton. TransPod hopes to have this test track operational by 2022.

    However, their focus right now is on France. (Being in Europe is another differentiator for the company. Europe gets transport.) With the help of a few partners, the company has started work on a 3-kilometer test track in Limoges, France. Permits were received at the end of last year and they hope to begin testing by the end of this year.

    There’s no question that this technology has the potential to be transformational, which is why so many companies are competing in the space right now. But it’s obviously going to take a whole lot of moxie. Gendron is on the record talking about the risk-adverse nature of both Canadian regulators and investors when it comes to these sorts of large-scale innovations. That’s a problem that we need to address.

    The title of this post is a quote by Gendron taken from this TechVibes article.

    Image: TransPod