My time in the mountains has come to an end. I’m on a flight back to Toronto and about to start watching old Bond movies (as one should). If you don’t ski or snowboard or do any other winter sports, it’s maybe hard to relate to this, but the mountains are a truly special place. I’m always sad to leave them. In my opinion, there’s no better place to disconnect and recalibrate.
And even though I've been mostly disconnected, it has been hard not to miss the hype around the new Apple Vision Pro, which was released into the wild this week. I haven't tried one yet, but every review that I have read or watched seems to come to the same general conclusion: "Wow, this thing is incredible. It feels like a glimpse into the future of computing."
If you're looking for a comprehensive technical overview of the device, you should check out Marques Brownlee's video, here. But if you're just looking to get a sense of what it might be like to, you know, wander around New York City wearing one, you should definitely check out Casey Neistat's video, here.
Now I think there's no question that there's a dystopian element to all of this. When Casey is standing around and watching a butterfly eat his donut, he looks pretty strange from the outside. Only he is seeing the butterfly. But then again, we all look pretty weird standing around staring down at our phones all the time. Maybe this will help us become less disconnected. I don't know.
Either way, it's hard not to imagine this changing -- a lot. I mean, here's just one small example. Already Zillow has an app for Vision Pro that allows you to tour homes for sale. Assuming it's as good as everyone says it is, I can't imagine anyone going to physically tour a home ever again, unless they're really serious and/or ready to put in an offer.
Of course, there's also no shortage of people saying that this device is simply too expensive. But I think that misses the point. This is version one. At this point, Apple just needs to be directionally right about what they are calling "spatial computing." (They don't want you to call it VR.) Because if they are right, the price will come down and then we'll all be watching old Bond movies on these devices.
Over the weekend I watched this interview discussion between Elon Musk and Marques Brownlee. If it doesn’t show up below, you can find the video here.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevKTPN4ozw&w=560&h=315]
Elon figures that if Tesla works really hard they could probably come out with a USD 25,000 car in about three years. The key to that affordability is twofold: (1) design & technology improvements and (2) scale.
So part of the answer is just time. As design and engineering iterations continue to take place, the components will become better and cheaper, just as they have for things like cell phones. Elon estimates that we’re in the 30th iteration of the cell phone today.
But the second factor is simply volume. And that got me thinking about housing production and the similar importance of scale and density. We do a lot to limit volume, despite saying we want more affordable housing.
