Over the years, we have spoken a lot about the role that investors play in Toronto's pre-construction condominium market. In the media, they are often spoken about pejoratively. They are seen as being a well-capitalized group that outbids end-users for a limited supply of new housing.

But on the other hand, we know that (1) they have been a major contributor to new rental housing in this city (they filled the gap after we decided in the 1970s that we didn't like purpose-built rentals) and that (2) they play an important function in getting new housing financed.

For better or for worse, we know that, without an investor market, there would have been far fewer new homes constructed over the last cycle. Pre-sales are generally always a prerequisite for a construction loan. And the fastest, and therefore safest, way to get pre-sales is/was to target investors.

But the world has changed since then. Investor demand has diminished. So much so that you could argue that the opposite is now true.

I was speaking to my friend Christopher Bibby this morning and he reminded me that end-users, who are passionate about specific projects and neighborhoods, are the more resilient demand base during a downturn. Because if you need a place to live, you need a place to live.

Perhaps it's no coincidence that every single sale that we have had at Junction House this year has been to an end-user who moved in.

I’ve said many times before that the real estate market is an imperfect one. Participants lack access to a lot of valuable information and there’s a significant amount of friction between buyers and sellers.

A perfect example of this can be found in this recent Toronto Star article, which is suggesting (at least in the headline) that only about 23% of Toronto’s condos are owned and rented out by investors. The article is reporting on the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s annual publication called the Canadian Housing Observer.

Of course, to come up with this number, CMHC is only reporting on data held by the MLS. It does not include units that may have been rented out via Craigslist, Kijiji, social media, a billboard in the lobby, or some other means. And I would argue that the rental side of the marketplace has a much stronger tendency to go outside of MLS as compared to sales.

So what what this means is that we have absolutely no idea what the actual percentage of investor owned units in the city really is. Here’s how CMHC put it:

Mathieu Labarge, CMHC’s deputy chief economist, acknowledged that “to complete the picture there’s a need for data,” and it simply doesn’t exist.

Nobody seems to know exactly where buyers, or their money, is coming from, why they are buying and how they intend to use the condo.

In reality, the investor percentage is going to be higher:

“We think the number is closer to 50 per cent,” says veteran Toronto development consultant Barry Lyon. “The data they (CMHC) are using has some shortcomings. It’s only part of the story.”

Now, I don’t have the answer, but I think it’s pretty safe to say that consumers and the market as a whole would be better off if it had all the information.

Earlier this week I connected with a Ryerson student doing a piece on Toronto’s condo rental market. She emailed me and asked if I would mind answering a few questions. Here are my responses.

Generally speaking, why is Toronto continuing to see such a rapid increase in the number of condos in development? 

A lot of what we’re seeing is policy driven. It stems from the Places to Grow Act and the continued push towards intensification. It actually mirrors a similar boom we saw in the 70s. In both cases, it was policy driven and the market responded.

The other factor is a growing consumer preference for more walkable and urban neighborhoods. People are sick of long commutes and so we’re seeing a return to city centers and downtowns. This is happening across all demographic segments, though Millennials and Baby Boomers seem like particularly strong ones.

Is that boom, and the consequent rush by developers to create new units for rapid sale, affecting the quality of design and accessibility in new condo developments in Toronto?

When you have a hot market, you’re going to get lots of people rushing in and trying to make money. Whether it’s real estate, tech or some other industry, it’s to be expected. And I’m sure it impacted some projects negatively. But that market is gone in Toronto.

And regardless of the pace of development, there will always be varying degrees of quality across builders. The unfortunate thing for consumers is that it’s not always easy to tell which is which.

One of the things we’re trying to do (at TAS) is integrate consumer education more into our sales and marketing programs. Mechanical equipment, as one example, isn’t the most exciting thing to to talk about, but we want consumers to know what they’re buying into.

Prices are rising (you could buy a house outside the city for the price of some of Toronto’s tiny bachelor units, if I’m not mistaken…) - So what is making condo ownership so desirable in spite of the high cost relative to space? 

Again, it’s being driven a lot by lifestyle. People want walkable communities, they want to be close to amenities and they want to drive less. And they’re willing to give up space for that. 

When considering and comparing the cost of a home, I think it’s important to consider some of the indirect costs, such as transportation costs, travel times, quality life and so on.

Sure a home in the suburbs may be a lot cheaper, but what’s my total, all-in, cost? If you need to own 2 cars and you spend 2 hours commuting everyday, there’s a real cost to that. If you place a big value on your time (as I do), the cost equation isn’t so skewed all of a sudden.

Are more people choosing to live in rental condos instead of buying, because of the inaccessible cost? If so - why are we still seeing so many new ‘rental condo units’ being built, rather than purpose-built apartment units?

Condos are being built because, in most cases, it’s the highest-and-best use for the land. It’s the most profitable. And investors have been more than willing to step up and fill the rental needs of the market. But with the condo market now coming down from record levels, I wouldn’t be surprised if we start seeing more purpose-built apartments.

Would you say that the majority of condo rentals on the market are owned by foreign investors who depend on building management to liaise with renters? If so, why are they choosing to buy units in Toronto?

I have no idea. It’s even hard to tell how many units are just investor owned, let alone local versus foreign. Because there are tax implications if you don’t owner occupy a unit, buyers have an incentive not to disclose. Overall, I find it problematic that the marketplace is so opaque. I wish there was a way to bring perfect information.

With respect to why they choose to buy in Toronto, there are a bunch of reasons. Real estate has been a phenomenal investment in Toronto over the past decade and that’s attracted a lot of investor attention. There are also segments that just want capital preservation in a safe and stable country. Even without great returns, that’s a valuable proposition for some foreigners. And of course, Toronto is a great city. Talent wants to live here and that’s important.

Generally speaking, is there a certain LOCAL demographic (ie, boomers, post-boomers) that are investing in condos for the purposes of renting them out? What makes that investment so desirable?

Again, there isn’t great data on this. 

What I will add to the investor topic is that, despite the fact that investors often get a lot of flack, they do serve two important needs in the marketplace for both developers and consumers. The first one we’ve already talked about. Investors provide rental housing in Toronto at a time when few, new, purpose-built rental apartments are being constructed.

The second one is that investors help to get projects under construction and built. I’ve heard one developer refer to them as providing a kind of short-term financing. Because consumers don’t always want to commit to a unit that might be built 4-5 years out, developers rely on investors to buy pre-sale units so that the project can get underway. Once construction is complete, these units then often get sold to end users who are now ready to commit and move in.

Over the years, we have spoken a lot about the role that investors play in Toronto's pre-construction condominium market. In the media, they are often spoken about pejoratively. They are seen as being a well-capitalized group that outbids end-users for a limited supply of new housing.

But on the other hand, we know that (1) they have been a major contributor to new rental housing in this city (they filled the gap after we decided in the 1970s that we didn't like purpose-built rentals) and that (2) they play an important function in getting new housing financed.

For better or for worse, we know that, without an investor market, there would have been far fewer new homes constructed over the last cycle. Pre-sales are generally always a prerequisite for a construction loan. And the fastest, and therefore safest, way to get pre-sales is/was to target investors.

But the world has changed since then. Investor demand has diminished. So much so that you could argue that the opposite is now true.

I was speaking to my friend Christopher Bibby this morning and he reminded me that end-users, who are passionate about specific projects and neighborhoods, are the more resilient demand base during a downturn. Because if you need a place to live, you need a place to live.

Perhaps it's no coincidence that every single sale that we have had at Junction House this year has been to an end-user who moved in.

I’ve said many times before that the real estate market is an imperfect one. Participants lack access to a lot of valuable information and there’s a significant amount of friction between buyers and sellers.

A perfect example of this can be found in this recent Toronto Star article, which is suggesting (at least in the headline) that only about 23% of Toronto’s condos are owned and rented out by investors. The article is reporting on the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s annual publication called the Canadian Housing Observer.

Of course, to come up with this number, CMHC is only reporting on data held by the MLS. It does not include units that may have been rented out via Craigslist, Kijiji, social media, a billboard in the lobby, or some other means. And I would argue that the rental side of the marketplace has a much stronger tendency to go outside of MLS as compared to sales.

So what what this means is that we have absolutely no idea what the actual percentage of investor owned units in the city really is. Here’s how CMHC put it:

Mathieu Labarge, CMHC’s deputy chief economist, acknowledged that “to complete the picture there’s a need for data,” and it simply doesn’t exist.

Nobody seems to know exactly where buyers, or their money, is coming from, why they are buying and how they intend to use the condo.

In reality, the investor percentage is going to be higher:

“We think the number is closer to 50 per cent,” says veteran Toronto development consultant Barry Lyon. “The data they (CMHC) are using has some shortcomings. It’s only part of the story.”

Now, I don’t have the answer, but I think it’s pretty safe to say that consumers and the market as a whole would be better off if it had all the information.

Earlier this week I connected with a Ryerson student doing a piece on Toronto’s condo rental market. She emailed me and asked if I would mind answering a few questions. Here are my responses.

Generally speaking, why is Toronto continuing to see such a rapid increase in the number of condos in development? 

A lot of what we’re seeing is policy driven. It stems from the Places to Grow Act and the continued push towards intensification. It actually mirrors a similar boom we saw in the 70s. In both cases, it was policy driven and the market responded.

The other factor is a growing consumer preference for more walkable and urban neighborhoods. People are sick of long commutes and so we’re seeing a return to city centers and downtowns. This is happening across all demographic segments, though Millennials and Baby Boomers seem like particularly strong ones.

Is that boom, and the consequent rush by developers to create new units for rapid sale, affecting the quality of design and accessibility in new condo developments in Toronto?

When you have a hot market, you’re going to get lots of people rushing in and trying to make money. Whether it’s real estate, tech or some other industry, it’s to be expected. And I’m sure it impacted some projects negatively. But that market is gone in Toronto.

And regardless of the pace of development, there will always be varying degrees of quality across builders. The unfortunate thing for consumers is that it’s not always easy to tell which is which.

One of the things we’re trying to do (at TAS) is integrate consumer education more into our sales and marketing programs. Mechanical equipment, as one example, isn’t the most exciting thing to to talk about, but we want consumers to know what they’re buying into.

Prices are rising (you could buy a house outside the city for the price of some of Toronto’s tiny bachelor units, if I’m not mistaken…) - So what is making condo ownership so desirable in spite of the high cost relative to space? 

Again, it’s being driven a lot by lifestyle. People want walkable communities, they want to be close to amenities and they want to drive less. And they’re willing to give up space for that. 

When considering and comparing the cost of a home, I think it’s important to consider some of the indirect costs, such as transportation costs, travel times, quality life and so on.

Sure a home in the suburbs may be a lot cheaper, but what’s my total, all-in, cost? If you need to own 2 cars and you spend 2 hours commuting everyday, there’s a real cost to that. If you place a big value on your time (as I do), the cost equation isn’t so skewed all of a sudden.

Are more people choosing to live in rental condos instead of buying, because of the inaccessible cost? If so - why are we still seeing so many new ‘rental condo units’ being built, rather than purpose-built apartment units?

Condos are being built because, in most cases, it’s the highest-and-best use for the land. It’s the most profitable. And investors have been more than willing to step up and fill the rental needs of the market. But with the condo market now coming down from record levels, I wouldn’t be surprised if we start seeing more purpose-built apartments.

Would you say that the majority of condo rentals on the market are owned by foreign investors who depend on building management to liaise with renters? If so, why are they choosing to buy units in Toronto?

I have no idea. It’s even hard to tell how many units are just investor owned, let alone local versus foreign. Because there are tax implications if you don’t owner occupy a unit, buyers have an incentive not to disclose. Overall, I find it problematic that the marketplace is so opaque. I wish there was a way to bring perfect information.

With respect to why they choose to buy in Toronto, there are a bunch of reasons. Real estate has been a phenomenal investment in Toronto over the past decade and that’s attracted a lot of investor attention. There are also segments that just want capital preservation in a safe and stable country. Even without great returns, that’s a valuable proposition for some foreigners. And of course, Toronto is a great city. Talent wants to live here and that’s important.

Generally speaking, is there a certain LOCAL demographic (ie, boomers, post-boomers) that are investing in condos for the purposes of renting them out? What makes that investment so desirable?

Again, there isn’t great data on this. 

What I will add to the investor topic is that, despite the fact that investors often get a lot of flack, they do serve two important needs in the marketplace for both developers and consumers. The first one we’ve already talked about. Investors provide rental housing in Toronto at a time when few, new, purpose-built rental apartments are being constructed.

The second one is that investors help to get projects under construction and built. I’ve heard one developer refer to them as providing a kind of short-term financing. Because consumers don’t always want to commit to a unit that might be built 4-5 years out, developers rely on investors to buy pre-sale units so that the project can get underway. Once construction is complete, these units then often get sold to end users who are now ready to commit and move in.