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I watched Tesla's We, Robot event last night. As many of you know, Elon and his team showcased a Cybercab, Robovan, and a humanoid robot that dances funny, all of which will be available in the market for purchase at some unknowable date in the future. What was obvious is that Elon himself has no clear idea of when this will be.
What I will say, though, is that the designs look cool. The Cybercab looks like a Porsche and a Cybertruck had a love child, and the Robovan looks like an Art Deco rendition of what the future is supposed to be like. I first wondered why they'd create a robotaxi with only two seats. But thinking about it now, most Uber rides probably only have 1-2 passengers.
Despite these pretty designs, the overwhelming reaction to the event seems to be one of disappointment. We've heard what was said before. Public transportation is bad (I disagree). Autonomy will free up your time and remove unnecessary parking spaces from our cities (allowing for more public space). And soon you'll be able to put your under-utilized car to work and earn extra cash.
Cool, but when?
Waymo and Uber are not, as far as I know, hosting similarly flashy events. But as far as I can tell, they're making meaningful progress in advancing toward full autonomy. As of June of this year, Waymo had already logged over 22 million rider-only miles. And in September, they announced a partnership that would bring AVs to Austin and Atlanta by way of the Uber app.
At this point in the hype cycle, I don't think anyone is interested in hearing promises about what the future of autonomy will be like, especially without any firm dates. They want to know: Are we there yet? So I think it's no surprise that people, including investors, weren't all that pumped up by the event.
On a more important note, Tesla had bicycles with brightly illuminated wheels circulating around their event set (at Warner Bros.) to presumably demonstrate that their Cybercabs can successfully navigate around moving objects (when brightly illuminated). If you missed them, look at the 29 second mark in the below video:
https://youtu.be/Mu-eK72ioDk?si=JeU4z8Q5HLI-f9r3&t=29
I can't be the only one who thought: "What are those? Now, that's what I want!" So I've asked Elon when they'll be available and when I can buy one. I'll keep you all posted on his response.
According to McKinsey, something like $100 billion has been invested in trying to get autonomous vehicles to work and yet the industry remains stuck with problems like this one here:
State-of-the-art robot cars also struggle with construction, animals, traffic cones, crossing guards, and what the industry calls “unprotected left turns,” which most of us would call “left turns.”
The industry says its Derek Zoolander problem applies only to lefts that require navigating oncoming traffic. (Great.) It’s devoted enormous resources to figuring out left turns, but the work continues.
Right now certainly feels like an autonomous vehicle winter (we have many winters going on at the moment). The industry has spent a lot of time and money getting maybe 90% of the way there, but this last bit has proven to be a lot more challenging than I think most people anticipated.
This has a lot of people thinking that it's going to be many decades before we finally get full autonomy (if ever) and that, in the interim, all we will have are very specific use cases: trucks on highways, mining machines (the above article writes about this), and so on.
This may very well be the case. Frankly, I don't know. But it's perhaps important to remember two things: (1) pessimists aren't usually the ones who change the world and (2) there is something known as the Gartner hype cycle, which is a graphical representation of how new innovations typically get adopted.
The Gartner hype cycle has five phases. The important ones for this discussion are the first three. First there is a technology trigger. Second there is an inflation of expectations (until it hits a peak). And then third, there is a trough of disillusionment. This is the moment where interest wanes and people begin to think it'll never happen (until it does happen).
That might be what we're living through right now, or it might not be. But my gut tells me that it's the former.
I watched Tesla's We, Robot event last night. As many of you know, Elon and his team showcased a Cybercab, Robovan, and a humanoid robot that dances funny, all of which will be available in the market for purchase at some unknowable date in the future. What was obvious is that Elon himself has no clear idea of when this will be.
What I will say, though, is that the designs look cool. The Cybercab looks like a Porsche and a Cybertruck had a love child, and the Robovan looks like an Art Deco rendition of what the future is supposed to be like. I first wondered why they'd create a robotaxi with only two seats. But thinking about it now, most Uber rides probably only have 1-2 passengers.
Despite these pretty designs, the overwhelming reaction to the event seems to be one of disappointment. We've heard what was said before. Public transportation is bad (I disagree). Autonomy will free up your time and remove unnecessary parking spaces from our cities (allowing for more public space). And soon you'll be able to put your under-utilized car to work and earn extra cash.
Cool, but when?
Waymo and Uber are not, as far as I know, hosting similarly flashy events. But as far as I can tell, they're making meaningful progress in advancing toward full autonomy. As of June of this year, Waymo had already logged over 22 million rider-only miles. And in September, they announced a partnership that would bring AVs to Austin and Atlanta by way of the Uber app.
At this point in the hype cycle, I don't think anyone is interested in hearing promises about what the future of autonomy will be like, especially without any firm dates. They want to know: Are we there yet? So I think it's no surprise that people, including investors, weren't all that pumped up by the event.
On a more important note, Tesla had bicycles with brightly illuminated wheels circulating around their event set (at Warner Bros.) to presumably demonstrate that their Cybercabs can successfully navigate around moving objects (when brightly illuminated). If you missed them, look at the 29 second mark in the below video:
https://youtu.be/Mu-eK72ioDk?si=JeU4z8Q5HLI-f9r3&t=29
I can't be the only one who thought: "What are those? Now, that's what I want!" So I've asked Elon when they'll be available and when I can buy one. I'll keep you all posted on his response.
According to McKinsey, something like $100 billion has been invested in trying to get autonomous vehicles to work and yet the industry remains stuck with problems like this one here:
State-of-the-art robot cars also struggle with construction, animals, traffic cones, crossing guards, and what the industry calls “unprotected left turns,” which most of us would call “left turns.”
The industry says its Derek Zoolander problem applies only to lefts that require navigating oncoming traffic. (Great.) It’s devoted enormous resources to figuring out left turns, but the work continues.
Right now certainly feels like an autonomous vehicle winter (we have many winters going on at the moment). The industry has spent a lot of time and money getting maybe 90% of the way there, but this last bit has proven to be a lot more challenging than I think most people anticipated.
This has a lot of people thinking that it's going to be many decades before we finally get full autonomy (if ever) and that, in the interim, all we will have are very specific use cases: trucks on highways, mining machines (the above article writes about this), and so on.
This may very well be the case. Frankly, I don't know. But it's perhaps important to remember two things: (1) pessimists aren't usually the ones who change the world and (2) there is something known as the Gartner hype cycle, which is a graphical representation of how new innovations typically get adopted.
The Gartner hype cycle has five phases. The important ones for this discussion are the first three. First there is a technology trigger. Second there is an inflation of expectations (until it hits a peak). And then third, there is a trough of disillusionment. This is the moment where interest wanes and people begin to think it'll never happen (until it does happen).
That might be what we're living through right now, or it might not be. But my gut tells me that it's the former.
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