In Google's guide to its maps, there is a section on live traffic congestion, and in it, this image is used:

It is a map of the Toronto region, and not surprisingly, it is showing traffic congestion on the 401 highway. But what's interesting about this image is that there's no traffic at all on the 407 express toll route. (This is the green highway running generally parallel and north of the 401, for those of you who aren't familiar with Toronto.)

This is, of course, accurate. A 2019 study by the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis called the Economic Impacts of Highway 407 found that, at the time, an average of 413,000 drivers were using the 407 highway each weekday. And of these trips, more than 85% of vehicles were travelling at or above 100 km/h. This translates into a traffic congestion index of almost zero.

During this same time, the highway 401 through Toronto showed that about 85% of vehicles were travelling below 50 km/h. Meaning, lots of congestion. This also had a significant impact on collision and fatality rates. On the 407, both were about half of what they were on the 401. (I couldn't find any more decent data, but if you have it, please share it in the comments.)

The reason for these differences is simple: the 407 charges for congestion. Here are the current per kilometer weekday rates for light vehicles travelling westbound:

Naturally, there are people who think the 407 is too expensive and that it shouldn't have been privatized. But the reality is that it works; really well in fact. And this is the only method that has been proven to reliably combat congestion. We can go ahead and spend a gazillion dollars building a new tunnel under the 401, and double the number of lanes (it's already 18 lanes at its widest point), but we already know that it won't solve our congestion problem.

Either we price roads and congestion, or we don't. But if we don't, then we need to be brutally honest with ourselves about the economic trade off that we are making: free/underpriced roads = traffic congestion, and accurately priced roads and congestion = less traffic. The choice is ours. But know, there's no such thing as a free lunch.

People in Toronto are deeply and rightly frustrated about our traffic. We have truly world-class congestion. But here's the thing, the way we're going about solving this problem is all wrong.

Transportation staff seem to believe that congestion charges would not reduce or deter traffic from coming into Toronto. Never mind all the global precedents, never mind that we have the tolled 407 highway to look to, and never mind that economics tells us that when the price of something increases, the quantity demanded decreases.

Instead, we seem to think that we can solve this problem with fewer bike lanes, improved traffic management, and better policing, including higher fines for disobedience. (Interestingly enough, higher fines are supposed to deter people, but congestion charges won't do the same. I'm confused.)

None of this will fix the mess we're in.

This is a case of politics over data and experience. Identify something that people are pissed off about, and then create the illusion that you're doing something to fix it. Good politics. But the reality is that this problem is much trickier to solve. It will require vision and meaningful change. That's a much tougher sell.

Think of this way. Can you identity a large car-oriented global city with millions of people that doesn't have a traffic congestion problem? Even the Katy Freeway in Houston, which counts as many as 26 total lanes, has a congestion problem. And the last time I checked, it didn't have any bike lanes.

Now let's look at the largest city region in the world -- Tokyo. The city proper has about 14 million people and the broader region has about 41 million. This is the entire population of Canada in one city region, and yet it's generally viewed as being one of the most well-run and efficient cities in the world. How do they do it?

Here are the modal splits within Tokyo's 23 wards (2018 data):

• 36% public transport (rail and bus)

• 27% passenger cars

• 23% walking

• 14% bicycles and motorcycles

Now compare this to the splits in Toronto's census metropolitan area (2021 census data):

• 76% passenger cars

• 16% public transport

• 5% walking

• 1% bicycles

• 2% other

Of course, if we were to look at the modal splits within the core of the city they would look quite different and much closer to Tokyo's numbers. This is why it can be so hard to achieve consensus on many city building issues -- we are quite literally a divided and different kind of city.

In the end, this is the root cause of our traffic problem. The vast majority of people in this city region drive. And they are not to be blamed. It's because we've designed this to be the only practical option.

But if we're serious about solving congestion, it's going to require some bold changes. It's going to require reducing this 76% figure. We can fool ourselves into thinking that better construction coordination, fewer bike lanes, and higher fines will somehow solve this enormous and deep-rooted problem, but the inconvenient truth is that they won't.

What we need are real solutions. Is anyone going to take the lead?

In today’s post I’d like to focus on the second tweet I embedded in yesterday’s piece about downtown Toronto. Specifically, the fact that almost 75% of downtown residents walk, cycle, or take transit to work, leaving drivers firmly in the minority.

For me, this then makes me question whether or not we’re optimizing well enough for the majority. However, it’s often not that simple. And that’s because the downtown core is clearly regional in its draw, and the further you move out from the downtown core, the more the modal split flips. In the suburbs, driving is obviously the majority.

And herein lies the tension and the reason for all this “war on the car” rhetoric: We have a downtown core with completely different mobility preferences than the rest of the region.

But as Toronto continues to intensify and grow (the population of the Greater Toronto Area is projected to reach almost 9 million by 2036), I truthfully don’t know how we could reasonably expect to (efficiently) move that number of people in private cars. I’ve just never seen it done before.

Some people think that if we simply got rid of all those damn streetcars on our city streets, that we’d be doing a lot to eliminate traffic congestion. But it’s not that simple. The Highway 401 here in the city is already 18-lanes and one of the widest in the world. And yet it’s perpetually clogged. No streetcars there.

So I look at this tension as a growing pain. Sooner or later I think we’re going to realize that this war should really be a war on inefficiency. How do we move lots of people around big cities while minimizing waste, maximizing economic output, and enhancing quality of life?

Now that’s a war worth fighting.

Image: Helibacon