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Richard Florida is currently running a four-part CityLab series on the economic performance of America's cities. What makes this study somewhat unique is that it looks at cities proper, rather than at their larger metro areas. In some cases there may not be that much of a difference. But in other cases, the performance of the city proper could be very different from that of the broader area.
Here are the fastest and slowest growing cities from 2012 to 2017:
Here are the fastest and slowing growing job markets:
And here is the growth in share of adults with a graduate degree:
It's interesting to see Seattle at the top of the population growth list. It is not a sprawling sunbelt city. It is an expensive tech hub. And it is also interesting to see Miami's strong employment and education growth. Years ago, Paul Graham wrote an essay arguing that tech hubs have two prerequisites: capital and nerds. He went on to argue that Miami has lots of the former, but not much of the latter. Maybe that's changing.
Between 2001 and 2010, Detroit lost more than 200,000 jobs. It went from over 900,000 jobs to a low of about 690,000 jobs. All of this was happening while the United States was experiencing – up until 2008 at least – an economic growth cycle.
But we all know that Detroit is now a city on the move. According to City Observatory, Detroit has exhibited 5 consecutive years of job growth. And 2016 looks to be no different. Since bottoming out, Detroit has added more than 50,000 jobs.
The above chart is based on federal data for Wayne County, Michigan. It includes Detroit, Dearborn, and Livonia, but does not include any other counties within the Detroit metro area. (The above chart and stats are all via
According to a new report released by City Observatory, US cities have officially reversed a 50-year trend towards decentralization.
We know that urban living has been seeing a renaissance over the last decade or so, but as recently as 2002 - 2007 (pre-Great Recession), the suburbs and peripheral areas were still seeing significantly higher job growth: 1.2% per year in the periphery versus 0.1% in the city center. The “city center” is defined as a 3 mile radius around the center of the city in this study.
However since 2007 things have flipped:
Chart Source: City Observatory
Why is this happening? Here’s a snippet from City Observatory:
The strength of city centers appears to be driven by a combination of the growing attractiveness of urban living, and the relatively stronger performance of urban-centered industries (business and professional services, software) relative to decentralized industries (construction, manufacturing) in this economic cycle. While it remains to be seen whether these same patterns continue to hold as the recovery progresses, (the latest LEHD data on city center job growth are for calendar year 2011), there are structural forces that suggest the trend of center-led growth will continue.
In some ways, it just makes intuitive sense. People started returning to cities and so the jobs followed (although there were also structural changes to the economy).
The big question, however, is whether this trend will continue? My bet is on yes. What do you think?
Of course, the big question is: Has Detroit made the requisite structural changes to its economy to keep this trend line continuing or is this simply a case of a rising tide lifting all boats?
I have visited Detroit basically every two years since 2009 and you can certainly feel the change, even in that short period of time.
And if you look at total non-farm employment growth over the last year (June 2015 to June 2016) for the entire Detroit metro area, you see that some of the fastest growing industries include: professional and business services (+14,200 jobs); leisure and hospitality (+10,500 jobs); education and health services (+9,300 jobs); and financial activities (+5,500 jobs). In fact, many of these industries are growing faster than national averages.
In case you were wondering, manufacturing added 1,200 jobs and government lost 1,800 jobs.
I’ve heard some people complain that the city, at least downtown, is now too controlled by one entity (Dan Gilbert). But that’s probably what had to happen to really kickstart the city’s renaissance. Somebody had to seed it before you could get the cool coffee shops, bars, restaurants, and coworking spaces.
There’s still heavy lifting to do, but the data suggests that the city is now headed in the right direction.
What are your thoughts? Also, if any of you are working on interesting projects in Detroit, I would love to hear from you.
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