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One of the things that I have been wondering lately with all of the devastation caused by hurricanes Harvey and Irma is if we need to be viewing these catastrophic incidents as the result of climate change or if we’re being too quick to apply the availability heuristic.
The latter being: “Look at all of these horrible hurricanes. Climate change must really be here and happening right now.”
Albert Wenger is covering this topic on his blog right now through his “Uncertainty Wednesday” series and has also written similar posts in the past. The current series is still ongoing, but a few things stood out to me as I was going through the archives. I’ll mention 3 of them today.
Firstly, it’s important to understand the difference between weather and climate. Weather is what’s happening at any given moment. Climate, on the other hand, is the statistics of weather. Albert proposes the following definition for climate, which I like:
“Climate is the probability distribution of possible weather events.”
Secondly, the data is clear: We have gotten far better at forecasting weather over the years. Accuracy has greatly improved.
But we’re still pretty bad at it, particularly over longer periods of time. According this graph, we’re about 97.5% accurate for 3 day forecasts, but only about 40% accurate for 10 day forecasts. So by “longer periods of time”, I’m really talking about forecasts that go out beyond one week. That’s not very far into the future.
Thirdly, Albert has this post from last year where he talks about the flooding we saw on the U.S. east coast and also the slowing down of the Gulf Stream.
This is fascinating, and also frightening, because the Gulf Stream is a vital ocean current. Among other things, it warms western and northern Europe – likely making it warmer than it otherwise would be – and, according to some models, it lowers the sea level along the U.S. east coast by as much as 3 feet.
The frightening part is that as the Gulf Stream slows it also stops pulling away the same amount of water from the coast, which is arguably why mean sea level is increasing.
I say “arguably”, but the data clearly suggests an acceleration in the rate of rise. Here are two charts that Albert prepared. And there’s more: The U.S. east coast may also have it worse in terms of sea level rise precisely because of this phenomenon.
This is an interesting and, of course, important topic. This post obviously doesn’t do it justice, but I am trying to learn as much as I can. Writing always helps with that.
Photo by Joseph Barrientos on Unsplash
Do you believe that human action has caused and is causing negative outcomes with respect to the environment?
The New York Times published a feature piece this week on the flooding of the US east coast.
Associated with the article is a fantastic infographic that shows all of the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) tide gauges up and down the eastern seaboard. It then zooms in to a few locations and shows mean sea level rise (in inches) since 1950 and the number of days of “nuisance flooding.”
Here’s a sample screenshot:
If you don’t feel like reading the full article, at least
This week – thanks to an introduction from a mutual friend – I had the pleasure of having lunch with architect Omar Gandhi.
Based in both Halifax and Toronto, the Globe and Mail has called Omar one of Canada’s next top architects and Wallpaper Magazine has named him one of the top 20 young architects in the world. So if you haven’t yet heard of him, consider this post as your heads up.
What’s exciting about his work is how it really reflects the ethos of the places he works in (east coast Canada in many cases). At the same time though, his works seems to define a new modern and Canadian design sensibility.
And this is what I believe great architecture should do. It should respond to and reinforce local cultures, but also help to shape them as they invariably evolve. Architecture and culture are inextricably linked.
I love seeing local talent thrive, so I hope you will take a minute to visit Omar Gandhi’s website.
One of the things that I have been wondering lately with all of the devastation caused by hurricanes Harvey and Irma is if we need to be viewing these catastrophic incidents as the result of climate change or if we’re being too quick to apply the availability heuristic.
The latter being: “Look at all of these horrible hurricanes. Climate change must really be here and happening right now.”
Albert Wenger is covering this topic on his blog right now through his “Uncertainty Wednesday” series and has also written similar posts in the past. The current series is still ongoing, but a few things stood out to me as I was going through the archives. I’ll mention 3 of them today.
Firstly, it’s important to understand the difference between weather and climate. Weather is what’s happening at any given moment. Climate, on the other hand, is the statistics of weather. Albert proposes the following definition for climate, which I like:
“Climate is the probability distribution of possible weather events.”
Secondly, the data is clear: We have gotten far better at forecasting weather over the years. Accuracy has greatly improved.
But we’re still pretty bad at it, particularly over longer periods of time. According this graph, we’re about 97.5% accurate for 3 day forecasts, but only about 40% accurate for 10 day forecasts. So by “longer periods of time”, I’m really talking about forecasts that go out beyond one week. That’s not very far into the future.
Thirdly, Albert has this post from last year where he talks about the flooding we saw on the U.S. east coast and also the slowing down of the Gulf Stream.
This is fascinating, and also frightening, because the Gulf Stream is a vital ocean current. Among other things, it warms western and northern Europe – likely making it warmer than it otherwise would be – and, according to some models, it lowers the sea level along the U.S. east coast by as much as 3 feet.
The frightening part is that as the Gulf Stream slows it also stops pulling away the same amount of water from the coast, which is arguably why mean sea level is increasing.
I say “arguably”, but the data clearly suggests an acceleration in the rate of rise. Here are two charts that Albert prepared. And there’s more: The U.S. east coast may also have it worse in terms of sea level rise precisely because of this phenomenon.
This is an interesting and, of course, important topic. This post obviously doesn’t do it justice, but I am trying to learn as much as I can. Writing always helps with that.
Photo by Joseph Barrientos on Unsplash
Do you believe that human action has caused and is causing negative outcomes with respect to the environment?
The New York Times published a feature piece this week on the flooding of the US east coast.
Associated with the article is a fantastic infographic that shows all of the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) tide gauges up and down the eastern seaboard. It then zooms in to a few locations and shows mean sea level rise (in inches) since 1950 and the number of days of “nuisance flooding.”
Here’s a sample screenshot:
If you don’t feel like reading the full article, at least
This week – thanks to an introduction from a mutual friend – I had the pleasure of having lunch with architect Omar Gandhi.
Based in both Halifax and Toronto, the Globe and Mail has called Omar one of Canada’s next top architects and Wallpaper Magazine has named him one of the top 20 young architects in the world. So if you haven’t yet heard of him, consider this post as your heads up.
What’s exciting about his work is how it really reflects the ethos of the places he works in (east coast Canada in many cases). At the same time though, his works seems to define a new modern and Canadian design sensibility.
And this is what I believe great architecture should do. It should respond to and reinforce local cultures, but also help to shape them as they invariably evolve. Architecture and culture are inextricably linked.
I love seeing local talent thrive, so I hope you will take a minute to visit Omar Gandhi’s website.
What’s frustrating about the whole climate change debate is that it remains not only a debate, but an ideological debate. Here’s a quote from the article that stood out for me:
“I’m a Republican, but I also realize, by any objective analysis, the sea level is rising,” said Jason Buelterman, the mayor of tiny Tybee Island, one of the first Georgia communities to adopt a detailed climate plan.
In other words: I’m not supposed to think this way, but I do.
Politics.
What’s frustrating about the whole climate change debate is that it remains not only a debate, but an ideological debate. Here’s a quote from the article that stood out for me:
“I’m a Republican, but I also realize, by any objective analysis, the sea level is rising,” said Jason Buelterman, the mayor of tiny Tybee Island, one of the first Georgia communities to adopt a detailed climate plan.
In other words: I’m not supposed to think this way, but I do.
Politics.
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