By some measures, housing affordability is, in aggregate, the worst it has been in Canada going back to the 1980s. Below is a chart from RBC showing homeownership costs as a percentage of median household income.

The previous spike came around the early 90s, but following that, we saw 3 decades of relative affordability. In fact, for a large portion of this timeline, condo apartments look to be hovering around 1/3 of median household income. This is a common rule of thumb for measuring affordability.

Now obviously things changed pretty dramatically during the pandemic. But that time has ended and a reset is underway. New housing supply has slowed dramatically. Developers are sitting on record levels of inventory. And sellers of all shapes and sizes are clinging, as best they can, to yesterday's prices.

With so much uncertainty, it's challenging, if not impossible, to know exactly how all of this will play out in the coming years. But I suspect that, as time goes on, the above chart is going to start to mirror what we saw in the early and mid-90's. In other words, affordability is going to improve.

Once a year, I teach a session in Carleton University's Certificate in Real Estate Development program. That once a year is coming up this Thursday, and so I'm spending today (Sunday morning) preparing for the class.

This is the third time I've participated. And my usual topic is to cover the complete condominium development process, provide commentary on what's happening in the market, and then discuss how developers might best navigate whatever it is that's going on.

These latter points are particularly important today. A lot has changed over the last year. In fact, you could rightly call it a real estate sea change.

This is the toughest market that I have had to face in my real estate career. 2008 was certainly bad. I couldn't find work in the US at that time, or in Ireland where I had spent a summer working for a real estate firm. But I did manage to find work in Canada. Here, things didn't feel quite so bad.

According to all the gray hairs, the early 90s recession was considerably worse. That was the really scary time in Canadian real estate. (See: Bay-Adelaide stump.) But already today, the comparisons have started: "This is feeling more like the early 90s than the GFC."

It's probably too early to really tell. But regardless, this downturn is going to mean problems for some, and opportunities for others.

By some measures, housing affordability is, in aggregate, the worst it has been in Canada going back to the 1980s. Below is a chart from RBC showing homeownership costs as a percentage of median household income.

The previous spike came around the early 90s, but following that, we saw 3 decades of relative affordability. In fact, for a large portion of this timeline, condo apartments look to be hovering around 1/3 of median household income. This is a common rule of thumb for measuring affordability.

Now obviously things changed pretty dramatically during the pandemic. But that time has ended and a reset is underway. New housing supply has slowed dramatically. Developers are sitting on record levels of inventory. And sellers of all shapes and sizes are clinging, as best they can, to yesterday's prices.

With so much uncertainty, it's challenging, if not impossible, to know exactly how all of this will play out in the coming years. But I suspect that, as time goes on, the above chart is going to start to mirror what we saw in the early and mid-90's. In other words, affordability is going to improve.

Once a year, I teach a session in Carleton University's Certificate in Real Estate Development program. That once a year is coming up this Thursday, and so I'm spending today (Sunday morning) preparing for the class.

This is the third time I've participated. And my usual topic is to cover the complete condominium development process, provide commentary on what's happening in the market, and then discuss how developers might best navigate whatever it is that's going on.

These latter points are particularly important today. A lot has changed over the last year. In fact, you could rightly call it a real estate sea change.

This is the toughest market that I have had to face in my real estate career. 2008 was certainly bad. I couldn't find work in the US at that time, or in Ireland where I had spent a summer working for a real estate firm. But I did manage to find work in Canada. Here, things didn't feel quite so bad.

According to all the gray hairs, the early 90s recession was considerably worse. That was the really scary time in Canadian real estate. (See: Bay-Adelaide stump.) But already today, the comparisons have started: "This is feeling more like the early 90s than the GFC."

It's probably too early to really tell. But regardless, this downturn is going to mean problems for some, and opportunities for others.