Real estate is a highly levered asset class, which means that pricing is sensitive to interest rate changes.
Larry Summers recently published a post on his blog where he argued that the Fed (US) is being far too complacent about their ability to respond effectively to a future recession. He sees this as their biggest monetary policy challenge going forward.
Given the potential impact to real estate and city building as a whole, I thought I would summarize some of his key points:
Private sector GDP growth in the US averaged 1.3% over the last year
Since the 1960s, this level of tepid growth has typically foreshadowed a recession
Larry sees > 50% chance that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 3 years
400-500 basis points of monetary easing is usually needed to counter recessionary pressures
The Feds will likely not have this much room to play with when the next recession comes along
I don’t think anyone could have predicted that rates would remain so low for so long. (10-year Treasury = ~1.6% at the moment.) Still, my view has been that rates in Canada and the US won’t be posting meaningful increases anytime soon. And Larry’s post reinforces that for me.
What’s your view?