When I was in grad school they used to always tell us that architects are a leading indicator for the development business. Because if architects are getting fewer jobs/billings, it means that at some point in the future there will be fewer construction starts and then fewer completions. And not surprisingly, that is what we are seeing happening right now. Below is the latest data from the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (via Bloomberg).

Billings, inquiries (an even earlier leading indicator for billings), and design contracts are down:

And it seems to be most pronounced in the West and the Northeast:

This is always something to watch if you want to try and forecast where hard costs might be going and what completions might look like in the next few years.

When I was in grad school they used to always tell us that architects are a leading indicator for the development business. Because if architects are getting fewer jobs/billings, it means that at some point in the future there will be fewer construction starts and then fewer completions. And not surprisingly, that is what we are seeing happening right now. Below is the latest data from the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (via Bloomberg).

Billings, inquiries (an even earlier leading indicator for billings), and design contracts are down:

And it seems to be most pronounced in the West and the Northeast:

This is always something to watch if you want to try and forecast where hard costs might be going and what completions might look like in the next few years.